The Black Prince of Belgium: The Dark and Turbulent Life of Stephane Clement
  • "...notorious episode was the Prince's 30th birthday masquerade on a river barge upon the Seine rented for the occasion, despite the blistering cold of Paris in December. Even by Stephane Clement's standards it was a grotesque orgy of decadence; two Congolese women brought onboard as "entertainment" for the entourage were allegedly murdered and their bodies disposed of in the river, and while this allegation was made posthumously many years later, it serves as just an extreme example of the debauchery associated with the festivities. At the very minimum, Stephane Clement of Belgium's arrival into his fourth decade of life was greeted with copious amounts of alcohol, whores, morphine and bath salts. [1]

    December 10th, 1917 came and went whether Stephane Clement remembered it, but life went on, and the New Year did not bring with it much good for the royal family, as issues in the Congo reared their head once again, this time from an intrepid American reporter who was smuggled in despite the best efforts of the Free State's rigid customs officers. The New York Times ran a sprawling expose not long thereafter in early March which detailed in gruesome, lurid details the "killing fields of the Congo," with the reporter John Bertram having been shown mass graves full of children killed for their parents failing to meet their rubber quotas, [2] himself witnessed the bodily mutilation or murder of innocent Congolese by the Force Publique, and the lynchings of African soldiers for insubordination when they refused to carry out various atrocities on behalf of white European officers.

    It has often been argued in the press, particularly in France, that the Congo Free State and various French colonies were no more brutal than anywhere else, particularly Germany's savagely brutal plantations in the Kamerun. While that may have been true on the margins, the horrors of the Congo were institutionalized and uniquely barbaric in a way that went beyond mere sensationalism, and Europe had been scandalized by this once before a decade earlier. The revelation by the Bertram articles, which spoke not only to an American public with an appetite recently whetted for moral outrage at atrocities directed towards Black chattel workers but also to a well-meaning European public assured by Belgian authorities that the Congo had been reformed, blew a massive hole in Belgian public relations, which despite the best efforts of men like Stephane Clement to humiliate his father had actually made some strides. Leopold III was nobody's idea of a democrat or a diplomat, but as he neared his sixtieth birthday the former playboy and reactionary had softened a bit, made more friends around Europe in spite of his detested sons, and had especially invested his efforts in repairing relations with London, one of the two key guarantors of Belgian neutrality and, thus, independence as a small power in a sea of sharks. The King's bloody responses to the uprisings of 1890 and 1915 had not been forgotten, but perhaps they had been forgiven. Congo was a step too far, however, and it was finally too much even for the Belgian Parliament, which had swallowed Leopold's promises at face-value in 1908 when last challenged. The King, quite apparently, had either lied about pursuing reforms after public opinion across Belgium and Europe had demanded it, or to be naively charitable he had failed so thoroughly in his genuine attempts to do so that he was too incompetent to trust with pursuing it further, and to put it mildly most parliamentarians were unwilling to grant Leopold that benefit of the doubt.

    It speaks to the severity of what would come later that year that the events of March 1918 were simply the "First Congo Crisis." The government of Charles de Broqueville, which was already facing elections in the provinces of Hainaut, Limburg, Liege and East Flanders by early June, saw little choice but to challenge the King directly, and drafted a bill to reform the Congo into a colony of the Kingdom of Belgium. This was in part by design on de Broqueville's part to help Leopold save face, but it was still the most the Catholic Party's leader had ever done to separate himself from the Crown publicly. Had Leopold been his father, who was a canny manipulator of media and public opinion, he may have been able to persuade Parliament to blink, or at least find a way to deescalate. But interacting with the public by way of the press was not Leopold's strong suit, and deescalation when cornered or flustered was not in his nature. The doting grandfather Belgians and Europe had been presented with in the aftermath of the 1915 general strike was gone, and the ruthless tyrant of 1893 was back. Leopold, who had dug the Crown deep into near-ruinous levels of debt to sustain the Free State and become personally almost wholly owned by a cabal of Parisian banks themselves mortgaged to the hilt, had no choice financially but to refuse, but also out of pride. The Congo was his. It was his property, his late father's pride, and he'd be damned if Parliament tried to take it from him.

    De Broqueville's Loi Afrique may not even have passed; the ascendant Socialist and Radical deputies had zero intention of participating in imperialist ventures, and many Liberals, particularly Flemings, were skeptical, too. He would never have a chance to pursue this goal - upon his introduction of the law to the Parliament, the government was immediately dismissed by the King, and Leopold III called snap elections in all provinces of Parliament due in mid-April, against the advice of Stephane Clement and both his older and younger brother. The limits of the gamble were glaringly obvious - the King was already unpopular, the Congo scandal had made him more so, and de Broqueville had for once in his life presented himself as something other than a mouthpiece for the Crown, suggesting that whatever government was formed after the elections would be even more hostile to Leopold III than the one that had just been sacked for daring to challenge him.

    Stephane Clement's political instincts were infamously terrible, but for once he had been right. The Catholic Party lost its majority that it had held since 1884 and, notably, was only the largest party by one seat, with 60 to Labor's 59. The Liberals for their part earned 44 seats and the Christian People's Party, a more moderate and Christian Democratic outfit, took the remaining 23. [3] This meant that, hypothetically, a government of all opposition parties could be formed, and that the Liberals and Christian People held the balance of power if they would work together, which seemed increasingly likely since the epochal 1918 "full" election produced another groundswell of new tidings - the triumph of the Flemish Movement, a cultural tradition that had now become political.

    The genius of the Flemish Movement was that it cut entirely across politics, particularly seeing strength in the three non-socialist parties. Two-thirds of the Christian People's deputies who entered Parliament in 1918 were Flemish, and twenty-three of the Liberal deputies were as well, many of them associated with a more robust Flemish nationalism; even amongst the Catholic Party, long associated with the Francophone landed aristocracy and elite bourgeoisie in both halves of Belgium, deputies affiliated with August Borms and his more conservative and traditionalist worldview, Flemish interests saw a remarkable boost in their fortunes. Christian democrats like Frans Van Cauwelaart now could enter Parliament and form an alliance with men like the longstanding liberal champion Louis Franck, and both of them were fundamental Flemish advocates to the core, though decidedly moderate in the goals and ambitions for which they agitated. 1918 was thus a severe blunder for the Royal Family, not only on the question of their legitimacy over Congo, but over the legitimacy of the Belgian state as a binational kingdom with ardent, committed, and intellectually compelling Flemish nationalists empowered in a way they had not been since the Belgian Revolution in 1832 saw separation from the Netherlands to begin with.

    The King was bailed out of this crisis of his own making only by the inability of this hung Parliament to form a consensus; the Liberals and Christian Democrats agreed to work together, spurred in part by the "Antwerp Alliance" of Van Cauwelaart and Franck, but they then boxed themselves in on trying to form a government with either the Catholics (who did not have a proper leader after Broqueville's sacking) or Socialists (who had a number of competing leaders that various factions would inevitably refuse to back, most notably Jules Destree), laying out a variety of red lines on policy, including refusing to pass the Loi Afrique to make the Congo a colony because of their opposition to colonialism as well as their hard push for more rights for the Dutch language, particularly at university, both endeavors that made their participation in government with either larger bloc of votes a near-impossibility.

    This worked to Leopold III's advantage, at least in the short term - the parties could not muster the votes to force him to sell the Congo and absolve Belgium of her sins, nor could they muster the votes to force him to cede the Congo to the possession of the Belgian state, and the Walloon-Fleming wrinkle on language now added additional wrinkles that would extend the impasse. [4] The longer it took for the government to form, the weaker it would eventually be, and so in the meantime, the King endeavored to find an interim Prime Minister who would, conveniently, not be answerable to Parliament. His first choice was Gerard Cooreman, a Francophone native of Ghent, who had been a Catholic Party grandee whom had indeed been offered the job in 1911 before he declined and the task fell to de Broqueville, and had since served as chairman of the central bank. Cooreman was in his late sixties, however, and had refused the burden in times of peace; in a time of crisis, he was even more adamant not to assume the grave responsibility of rescuing Belgium from the brink. The task thus fell instead to Leon Delacroix, the fastidiously Francophile president of the Court of Cassation, Belgium's Supreme Court. Delacroix was politically a moderate - he had advocated as a lawyer an expansion of the franchise to all men - but he was very much a judge rather than a politician, and he was cautious and easily suborned by the Crown. Stephane Clement was impressed - his father had found a remarkably supine choice, and now he just needed to extend the governing crisis as long as possible.

    The opportunity to do this fell, almost providentially, in the Black Prince's lap days before the election created the crisis, and it took the impasse for him to realize the boon he had. In Paris, Stephane Clement had been approached by a man named Jean-Marie Piquet, claiming to be a French spy in Luxembourg who had in "his papers" evidence of an extensive conspiracy by the Germans to foment unrest in Belgium through financial and intellectual support of the Flemish nationalist cause - what would in just over a year be formally known as Flamenpolitik and, indeed, be explicit German policy. In the spring of 1918, however, Flamenpolitik was nothing more than the product of idle musings in Berlin or the paranoid extrapolations of Belgian royals; whatever sympathy Germans may have had for "Germanic brothers" in Belgium was little more than just that, sympathy. But Stephane Clement cared little for things such as subtlety or facts, and took what came to be known as the Piquet Note and waved it like a bloody shirt upon his return to Brussels, going so far as to address a crowd holding up the Note and reading its contents. While it did not accuse Borms and Van Cauwelaart of advocating for an independent Flemish crown allied to Germany or the placing of the Kaiserliche Marine in Antwerp, it nonetheless purported financial support of Flemish cultural associations by German patrons, suggested that professors of Dutch in Flanders accepted stipends from the (German-born) king of the Netherlands, Willem V, and after the elections were over, vaguely insinuated that German espionage may have been responsible for the shock overperformance of Flemish nationalist candidates.

    It was a provocative accusation, both inside and outside of Belgium. Flemish voters were scandalized, particularly that it was the loathed Stephane Clement essentially branding them as fifth columnists and traitors to their own country on behalf of Germany, a place few if any Flemings cared much for or thought of as any kind of friend, and protests erupted in Antwerp throughout April and May, especially as the efforts to form a government continued to prove impossible. But the Piquet Note also proved a major diplomatic issue otherwise - the Delacroix government, once seated, seemed to accept it as a fait accompli, making little effort to discern the credibility of Monsieur Piquet (and who exactly he was, or had ascertained this information), and badly eroding Belgian relations with Germany ahead of an even more severe crisis mere weeks away. In Paris, meanwhile, while Stephane Clement had eaten through much of his credibility, the Poincare government was naturally inclined to believe the most lurid things proposed about Germany, and the idea of Germany meddling in her neighbors' internal affairs seemed not entirely unlikely, especially as her efforts to intervene in Austria-Hungary that same year became more apparent. To the Quai d'Orsay, the French Foreign Office, it did not so much matter if the specifics of what Piquet alleged were entirely accurate (or even partially true) - it mattered instead that it suggested and revealed a pattern, a pattern of German belligerency hidden behind kind words and cautious diplomatic maneuvering, a pattern that showed Germany to be untrustworthy and aggressive all at the same time, a pattern that spoke towards the desirability of a war against Germany while France still had the ability to win such a conflict..."

    - The Black Prince of Belgium: The Dark and Turbulent Life of Stephane Clement

    [1] I promised Steffie content and by god, you shall have it!
    [2] This was often why people had their hands chopped off in the Congo
    [3] Leopold III's... shall we say, illiberal instincts means that the emergence of the Christene Volkspartij in the late 1890s does not inspire a moderation and democratization of the Catholic Party, which retains its more ultramontanist and clericalist elements. As a result, CVP retains itself even after the death of Adolf Daens, and by now is basically the main outlet for moderate Flemish nationalism.
    [4] Not to bring in present day politics, but this is essentially how Belgium works today.
     
    United Kingdom general election, 1918
  • United Kingdom general election, 1918


    TOTAL (670):

    National Conservative and Irish Unionist: 210
    Liberal: 303
    Social Democratic Labour Party: 74
    New Conservative: 6
    Irish Parliamentary: 58
    Sinn Fein: 10 (abstain)
    Irish Republican: 7
    Irish Labour: 2

    --

    Great Britain (571):

    National Conservative: 188 (-81)
    Liberal: 303 (+68)
    New Conservative: 6 (-4)
    Social Democratic Labour Party: 74 (+16)

    Ireland (99):

    Irish Liberal: 0 (-1)
    Irish Unionist: 22 (+3)
    Irish Parliamentary: 58 (-9)
    Irish Republican: 7 (+7)
    All for Ireland: 0 (-8)
    Irish Labour: 2 (+2)
    Sinn Fein: 10 (+6) (abstain)
    ----

    "....Chamberlain went to King George on January 24, 1918, and proposed a general election, which was subsequently called for the week of March 4th, with both King and Prime Minister understanding very pointedly that they did not want the election to overlap with St. Patrick's Day. Accordingly, the major parties had little more than a month to wage their campaign and make their case to the public, and Joynson-Hicks was already fully reconciled to a disaster looming on the horizon for the National Party.

    Austen Chamberlain was most certainly not his father, either in the ways that that made him noble or the ways that that made him weak, but for a brief moment as the winter thawed away on both sides of the Irish Sea, he showed flashes of the People's Joe in how be expertly deployed the NLF to make his case for him. The 1918 polls were known as the "Convention Election," in other words a contest waged exclusively over securing a mandate for the government to pass the New Year's Day Agreement that had emerged from the Irish Convention. In a remarkable stroke of irony, Irish Unionists, even some Ulstermen such as Carson, were more amenable to the terms - vague as they were - of the Agreement than many Britons were, and a good many Nationals from east of the Sea actually ran a harder line against it than their compatriots. Joynson-Hicks was not one of them, though he remained in the view of his peers "an irreconcilable" on the Ulster question; instead of rejecting the Agreement wholesale, he made the vague schools settlement his cause celebre, predicting - correctly, it turned out - that once free of Westminster an Irish Assembly would immediately implement sectarian schooling for the whole island and expressed serious doubts that the Catholic-dominated IPP or its successors would ever finance Protestant parish schools at the same rates as diocesal academies.

    That all being said, Joynson-Hicks also surmised that the British public would care quite little about questions of sectarian education in Ireland what with a mediocre economy and exhaustion from four years of conflict in the island that had seen nearly ten thousand British soldiers killed or wounded and thousands more Irishmen slain or maimed for life, and had seen thousands of Irish, particularly Ulstermen, decamp to Britain for safety. The British public had barely voted in Cecil four years earlier out of shock at the Curragh Mutiny, and had then experienced three years of ineptitude thereafter. Meanwhile, Chamberlain had within six months of seizing the ring been able to steer the ship of state in the direction of compromise, and he benefitted greatly from the warm afterglow of public memories of his father amongst older generations missing prosperity and young men nostalgic for the Britain of their childhood. The Nationals would suffer their worst defeat since 1890, losing eighty seats across Great Britain. Joynson-Hicks himself barely hung on to his Manchester seat, winning by an excruciating eighty ballots. The Cecil era was over, ending in a bout of humiliation; few realized that in just a few short years, the Nationals would be pivoting from one of their worst defeats to a historic triumph.

    Chamberlain nonetheless could not fully seize the mantle of the moment, falling a good thirty seats short of an outright majority on his own, as the SDLP of Barnes managed to pick off even more working-class boroughs and made several breakthroughs into the Liberal strongholds of urban Scotland and South Wales' mining valleys. As such, the math for the Liberals was less dire than before, but still dependent on the SDLP or the IPP to pass any measure. In that sense, though, they were lucky - both the SDLP and the Irish Parliamentary Party were fully supportive of the Agreement, meaning that it would enjoy a supermajority of support in the House of Commons when it finally came to a vote, even with some Liberal defections. The Irish Convention had been definitive, and its outcome now a fait accompli, as the weakest minority government in recent history was returned in much better condition..."

    - Jix
     
    Ireland Unfree
  • "...Devlin's whip was entirely in favor of the settlement, and he made no bones about the fact that the Irish Parliamentary Party in its final election under that name was entirely, fully supportive of the result of the Convention, despite Devlin's own misgivings and significant growing opposition from Catholic bishops about the concessions granted Ulster. Redmond did what he could out on the campaign trail, often having to retire from appearances early and hobbled, sometimes bent over, with a cane, his voice reedy and flat. It was clear to all Irishmen who saw him that winter - John Redmond was dying, and he was willing to put himself in an early grave for his country.

    How much the sympathy vote for Redmond affected the IPP's results is hard to say; they dominated their traditional rural boroughs, but performed terribly in Ulster (per usual) and in Dublin, where Irish Labour won seats on an anti-Agreement platform, and a new "Irish Republicans" replaced Sinn Fein as the most adamantly extreme outfit to win seats at Westminster after Arthur Griffith supported the new Home Rule settlement as being as close to pure Grattanism as he was ever going to get, though out of principle he still instructed his MPs to abstain from Westminster. In all, the IPP won fifty-eight seats, their worst result since the foundation of the party forty years prior under Charles Parnell; their last result in a British election, when they had achieved the party's raison d'etre, was somehow not the triumph they had hoped, an ill omen for Devlin as he assumed the mantle of Prime Minister-in-waiting.

    The news that Redmond had died in a nursing home in Dublin after a failed stomach surgery two days after the vote on March 4th stunned a celebratory Ireland; the party's supporters in particular had to pivot from jubilation to mourning black. John Redmond had committed his whole intellectual and working life to a free Ireland that would rule itself, and in the last days of his remarkable journey, he had committed his body and health to it, too. Eulogizing a man with whom he had often sparred and tried to outmaneuver for control of the Irish Party, John Dillon graciously said, "With the last ballots cast in confidence of his negotiated Agreement as he took his dying breath, John Redmond could now go to God knowing he had done his duty, and had given all he had, and that what he had given was not in vain." As Ireland's last St. Patrick's Day as a part of the United Kingdom approached, Padraig Pearse commented on the hour more succinctly, saying in reference to someone he had once branded a collaborationist traitor: "For now Ireland is free, John Redmond can be at peace." [1]

    - Ireland Unfree [2]

    [1] Laying it on thick here
    [2] This will conclude Ireland Unfree, for my thinking is that the epilogue of that book covers the final vote in the Commons to implement the deal and then covers the immediate aftermath for the various major figures of the book; but the legwork to make Ireland a Dominion rather than a direct part of the UK is, for all intents and purposes, over, and the denouement of ending the book's actual chapters on Redmond's death (OTL's date) and the Convention Election through that reworked Pearse quote seems to me like it'd be obvious to the in-universe author
     
    God's Kingdom: The Catholic Church and the 20th Century
  • "...Popes generally not known for their youthfulness as it was, but nonetheless 65 was early to die, and Gregory XVII's passing in the Apostolic Palace caught the Curia entirely by surprise. His health had been fragile but not acutely so, and just weeks before his death he was working robustly in appointing bishops and cardinals and overseeing the reconstruction of the Sistine Chapel, a huge priority for him that became the lasting legacy of his papacy.

    The following conclave that would convene in early April of 1918 was quite different from the Christmas Conclave that had elected Gregory XVII just over four years earlier. A number of liberal cardinals had died in the interim, and most of them had been replaced not even by theological moderates but conservatives often handpicked by de Lai. As such, as the conclave opened, the idea that Gaetano de Lai - too extreme to be papabile just four years ago - could credibly emerge as Pope from the proceedings was hardly far-fetched, even if it made the liberal minority and a great many moderates in the middle otherwise uncomfortable with modern secularizing trends across Europe wince. As revealed four years prior, once a man began to build momentum, it was often hard to stop.

    Then again, there was another old saying - that a cardinal who enters the conclave as the favorite rarely leaves it as Pope, and de Lai's day still required a vote. As the power behind the papal throne in Rome for four years and a patron of many of those gathered as the conclave opened on April 2, de Lai was perhaps more than a little privately arrogant coming into the scrutiny, and in accordance with Church tradition he did not campaign on his own behalf amongst the Italian cardinalate in the weeks between his friend and ally's death and the conclave. Had he done so, he likely would have turned a great many off, but perhaps also detected the skepticism amongst them.

    The protagonist of attempting to defeat de Lai was an unexpected one - the septuagenarian, Irish-born Archbishop of New York, John Murphy Farley. Farley was a moderate and had made great strides to forge the American Church, perhaps by necessity, into a "broad church" welcome to those of all stripes, and had been a remarkable innovator of Catholic education in the New York Archdiocese. He thus made an excellent "tip of the spear" to advocate against de Lai, whom he allegedly accused in the first scrutiny of being "a man who would close the doors of the Church, rather than one who would throw them open." It was unlikely that Farley could, on his own though, break through. An American simply could not sink an Italian with so many allies, and while de Lai was unlikely to have the needed two-thirds on the first day, he was close.

    That was when the intervention arrived. The practice of jus exclusivae was an informal and old one, where a Catholic monarch could intervene to effectively veto a papabile, and it had nearly occurred at the 1891 conclave against Mariano Rampolla to prevent him from becoming Pius X at the behest of Franz Josef I of Austria, only for the Austrian Emperor to change his mind at the last moment. The context of 1918 was very different, however; a new breed of younger, more forward-thinking monarchs sat across the continent, and men like de Lai terrified them, even the conservative ones. For as devout a Catholic as Ferdinand II of Austria was, he was deeply skeptical of allowing "a man who makes Pius IX look liberal" take the reins of the Church after the polarizing papacy of Gregory XVII. The question of de Lai's potential ascendance was so acute that Ferdinand began to mull how, exactly, he could interrupt it - and jus exclusivae was the perfect vehicle.

    Ferdinand regarded himself as Catholicism's chief monarch in Europe and the association of the Habsburg realms with their Catholicism was part of their identity, but he also did not want to wield the knife himself against the Church and, it must be noted, part of his hesitation towards de Lai was his concern that, as a man in a deeply unhappy marriage who was living openly with his mistress who had borne him two children, he was at risk of excommunication from the ultraconservative cardinal should he become Pope. As such, Ferdinand needed a catspaw. Victor Emanuel II of Italy, though a Catholic, was obviously out of the question - the hostility between the House of Savoy and the Church was so acute, despite Austria's longstanding attempts to mediate a solution and get the Church to formally accept the Leonine Compromise, that having the King of Italy exercise jus exclusivae himself was likelier to push wavering cardinals over the line in de Lai's favor, rather than help defeat him. Ferdinand's other options thus were Spain and France, the other two monarchies that had traditionally exercised the right. As such, he suggested to Napoleon V via telegram late in March that it was perhaps prudent to attempt to block de Lai, whom he accused of being likely to agitate violently against the Italian state and possibly threaten the treaties that had underpinned peace since 1868.

    Napoleon V consulted with his grandmother Eugenie de Montijo, who flatly informed him that he would do no such thing, even at the request of Ferdinand. The papacy was too sacred to her, and the idea of a secular monarch interfering in the "designs of God" deeply offended her, and the episode left a serious rift in the relationship between Eugenie and Austrian officialdom until her death in 1920. As such, Ferdinand was left no choice but to do it himself when he could not get a firm answer from Spain's Charles Joseph I, and subsequently dispatched Archbishop Janos Csernoch to act as his electoral assassin.

    Csernoch dutifully and reluctantly presented the jus exclusivae to Cardinal Rafael Merry de Val, the Cardinal Secretary of State who was Spanish-born but associated more with Italy by 1918. Merry de Val dropped the letter on the floor and denounced it in no uncertain terms, citing it as a "refusal of the first order;" nonetheless, the damage had been done. If even a robustly Catholic realm like Austria, which had in the past vetoed liberals (and ironically, nearly vetoed Pius IX in 1846, before his turn to reaction in the wake of the Revolutions of 1848) sought to reject de Lai, then surely there was something amiss with him. He could simply not steer the Church, what with such grave misgivings from the most powerful of his flock.

    This served to immediately redound to another's benefit - that of Merry de Val, who had impressed his fellow cardinals with his theatrical refusal of the jus exclusivae. Four years ago he had also been papabile but his Spanishness had held him back; with the defeats of a number of Spanish-speaking countries such as Mexico or Chile in the Great American War in the interim, however, there now emerged a line of thinking that the Church in the West could be reinforced by a man of Spanish origin, and many conservatives had been greatly impressed by Merry de Val over the previous years. Farley sealed the matter in advocating for him to receive the vote; while no vote tallies are ever taken formally (or at least discussed), Merry de Val's motion had won over his peers, and he was voted Pope, the first non-Italian (by birth, at least) to take the role since Adrian VI, 395 years earlier.

    Merry de Val took on the name Ignatius I, in honor of the Spanish Saint Ignatius of Loyola who founded the Society of Jesus and was regarded as one of his country's great contributions to the faith, and his selection was met with muted and reserved approval throughout most of Catholic Europe, with him regarded as a brilliant intellectual but his conservatism suggesting more of the same from Serafini. For his own part, Ferdinand II of Austria-Hungary saw his effort to anoint a name other than de Val backfire - Italy still was hostile to the new Pope, and he had earned powerful enemies in France and the Roman Curia whom he now needed to appease, arguably with a more aggressive stance geopolitically against "heathen" Italy and Protestant-dominated Germany..."

    - God's Kingdom: The Catholic Church and the 20th Century

    (As I've mentioned before, the Church stays much more conservative, and for longer, ITTL, but de Lai was a bridge too far. Merry de Val is one of those cliche alt-Pope choices, but he is one for a reason, so he'll make a perfectly fine Ignatius I for my purposes.)
     
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    The People's Prime Minister: Thomas Crerar's Remarkable Canadian Life
  • "...fundamental differences; the Drury faction of the United Farmers of Ontario was inherently pragmatic, whereas the Morrison faction was committed, wholly, to being a party of farmers and farmers only, papering over internal policy disagreements with a dogmatic belief that agrarianism would win in otherwise Liberal farm constituencies.

    Crerar wasn't convinced, and as he was the most important figure in UF circles he leant his expertise where it could come. On a rainy, near-freezing Ontario morning on March 3, 1918 in Berlin, Ontario, [1] he denounced "the short-sighted limitations of narrow political constituencies" and pointed out that the Tories dominated Canadian politics by way of sucking as many voters into their ranks as possible (often through social organizations such as churches, Orange Lodges, and local societies). "To exclude a fellow traveler on account of geography or vocation," he warned cryptically, "would be to cut off our own hand as we reach out to the Canadian people in solidarity!"

    Crerar seldom critiqued his co-partisans by name, but one did not have to read between the lines to determine that he was speaking directly at Morrison and chiding him for his staunch determination to keep the UFO a single-issue party; Bracken quipped later that "single-issue will mean single-digits" in terms of votes and seats. Crerar may have been a Manitoban, but people listened when he spoke, and his advocacy in favor of Drury's big-tent position on reaching out to Independent Labour MLAs in legislative assemblies was clear as day, especially on the heels of the 1917 elections that suggested that there may be some weakening of the Tories' strength in rural ridings.

    Moreso than words, though, his position was buffeted by what politicians responded to more than anything - winning. The 1918 Manitoban general election saw the UFM collected ten out of forty-eight seats in the Legislative Assembly; Independent Labour candidates won four. The Tories lost their outright majority, and this meant that these third parties now held the balance of power in Winnipeg. Bracken won the riding of The Pas, making him the clear chief figure of the party. With his loyal friend in Winnipeg, Crerar thus held a tremendous amount of direct power.

    "We are a political party now," he announced from the steps of the Manitoba House of Assembly on June 24th, the day the new minority government of Rodmond Roblin was sworn in after eighteen straight years of majority rule under "Ramrod Roddy," a corrupt social conservative who had done more than anything else to sink women's suffrage in Manitoba. Continuing his stemwinder of a speech, Crerar further extrapolated, "As the balance of power in this province, we will be reasonable, we will be pragmatic, and we will act on behalf of those who entrusted us with this matter of great import - but we will never forget what this place is, and what we now are, and we will pursue our agenda accordingly." It was a remarkable moment, the hour that the UF had truly arrived in the halls of power, its first major breakthrough anywhere in Canada.

    The Roblin government, on twenty-one seats, was supported by Tobias Norris' Liberals, with thirteen, despite Crerar's overtures to Norris to form a grand coalition. Despite Norris having quite a number of progressive views, he suspected - probably not incorrectly - that he would be subsumed quickly by the UFM-Labour coalition, and he preferred instead to "hold the sword of Damocles" over Roblin, whom he predicted would not be able to long survive a coalition government after nearly two decades atop Manitoba alone. Crerar in later years wrote that he suspected that Norris' game was, in the end, to either force Roblin's resignation and replacement with a more moderate Tory, or to simply force fresh elections and give himself time to reorient the Liberals towards a new era of agrarian radicalism and socialist agitation that he did not entirely understand; whatever his reasons, Norris was able to extract a number of concessions from Roblin including social insurance such as workmen's compensation and a widows' pension as well as substantial public works projects, though women's suffrage would have to wait for yet another day.

    Manitoba was thus not the great triumph but rather the first shot in the sprint to power for the United Farmers, who had in six short years gone from being beaten with clubs by police on horseback in Ottawa at the Farmers March to the official opposition in Winnipeg, with Crerar now a household name in much of the Prairies and certainly to the organizers of the UFO. The success out west was enough to persuade the activists at a raucous convention of the UFO in St. Catharines in October 1918 - Drury was anointed party leader ahead of expected elections the following year, and the zeal of the possible hung in the air…” [2]

    - The People's Prime Minister: Thomas Crerar's Remarkable Canadian Life

    [1] No Reason for it to be renamed Kitchener here, after all!
    [2] This is the big change from OTL - the UF typically ran without a formal leader, and Drury did not become leader until after winning the 1919 elections and Morrison declined. Here, the UFO has way more time to organize ahead of the polls, and with Crerar more of a national figure and him clearly supporting Drury, the UFO is better positioned to not be a flash in the pan

    (Had to retcon a little as I remembered after writing that Crerar was already a federal MP)
     
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    The Central European War
  • "...general trend in historiography of the time to recount the late 1910s as an almost economic golden age that, along with the general peace across the continent, came to a crashing halt with the onset of the war. This is in some ways a recollection of the time through very rose-tinted glasses that is nostalgic for a time without the horrors of the conflict, but also a very narrow view that considers only the experiences of Germany and France and, to a lesser extent, Italy. It is true that few if any countries in Europe were seeing any kind of economic stagnation or decline by 1918, but the first half of the decade had seen a genuine economic shock that many economies by the conclusion of the decade were still recovering from. The secular economic depression of 1910-11 had been exacerbated severely by the imposition of the Imperial Preference system installed by the Haldane government, an echo that reverberated across Europe in ways that few anticipated. [1]

    At the root of the issue was that a number of European economies had, due to the liberal macroeconomic regime of the late 19th century, still not reconciled themselves to a nascent trend of protectionism in places like Germany, Russia, or France, or at the very least were not expecting Britain to withdraw behind a tariff system meant to benefit herself and her colonies. Imperial Preference, combined with major readjustments forced by the Great American War, had been a huge boon to Australia, South Africa and Canada; it had devastated trade-dependent markets such as Denmark, Belgium and Norway, and placed even some strain on Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey, all countries with healthy and developed trade networks with Britain.

    The end of the age of free trade with Imperial Preference's introduction coincided, perhaps not by accident, with the diplomatic withdrawal of Britain from Europe. At the time it was generally considered to be of a diplomatic manner - conflicts in Ireland in 1914 and India the year after were consuming a great amount of London's attention - but there was a financial dimension, as well. British banking's share of European investments had declined significantly since the early 1870s as Latin American and Asian markets had opened to British finance, and British banks were critical in the financing of the Great American War, as well. Imperial Preference also deepened the ties between the City's banks and the dominions; the boomtimes in Canada and Australia were very much underwritten by millions in British gold.

    This left small, free-trading countries like Denmark exposed to their primary market evaporating for agricultural goods and a major source of financing eroding. Without Britain, countries like Denmark had two options - the Bourse of Paris, or Frankfurt and Hamburg's smaller banks in Germany. On paper, there was a great deal that made sense about an economy more integrated with that of Germany, from cultural similarities (Lutheranism in particular) to proximity. On the other hand, Copenhagen's merchants had considered Hamburg and other Hanseatic cities competitors since the Middle Ages.

    Beyond that, Germany had no coordinated national strategy on coordinating finance as a tool of geopolitics. In this sense, it was somewhat like Britain, which viewed such interventionism as a bit gauche and simply relied on the City to "pursue her interests," though for Germany it was also that no concentrated banking system existed. The Reich's polycentric structure, and that Frankfurt would not develop into Europe's banking hub for decades to come, meant that even had Berlin wanted to use German banking as a tool of the Foreign Office, they would have struggled to do so effectively.

    That left, essentially, France, and there Denmark was once again supine to the needs of the Iron Triangle they had agreed to join forty years prior. France had no qualms about regarding the Bourse, the Banque de France, or any of her major private financial institutions as arms of the state and sovereign loans as a tool of geostrategy. Denmark needed a lifeline in the wake of Imperial Preference, and a lifeline she received. As the economic depression of the mid-1910s ended in Denmark, the country's growth was thus more and more dependent on French investment and, in tandem with that, French profits in the Far East and hegemony in North Africa. In an eerie, dark parallel of France's increasing willingness to attach itself to Austria to recoup its military and financial interests, Denmark was unable to extricate itself from a situation which, in hindsight, made little sense for it to continue to pursue thanks to its yearslong dependence on French funding and trade..." [2]

    - The Central European War

    [1] This update is inspired a bit by my reading of "8mm to the Left" by @KaiserKatze in that I realized I hadn't really given enough thought to how Imperial Pref might effect Europe more broadly. And if you haven't read "8mm" yet please go do so - it's one of the most exciting new projects on this site since the launch of "Geronimo" three years ago
    [2] Important to re-note the financial dependency of Belgium on France, too, which I touched on briefly in the last Belgium update. Paris sits at the center of a very important financial network in continental Europe...
     
    The Northern Citadel: Manchuria 1912-1957
  • "...nonetheless caught all observers by surprise, and it was only those on the ground who realized how serious the situation had been; the American governor of Chusan, for instance, cabled Philadelphia of a "feud between generals in the Qing Manchuria," not elaborating further, whereas the report of British envoy to Mukden Sir Alan Freelander described, "A most serious crisis, quite possibly bearing the impetus of the Tsar, where now an hourglass has been turned in Manchuria with the sand running out on the continued rule of General Duan Qirui and his immediate allies."

    To what extent Cao Kun had recruited to his cause of overthrowing Duan's cabinet the Russians, the Hongxian Emperor, and Wu Peifu's clique is highly debatable. Wu and Cao were, after all, considered allies in the poisonous and murderous court politics of 1910s Mukden, where by early 1918 the wave of targeted killings of minor bureaucrats and officials to send messages to their patrons in Cabinet had once again reached endemic levels not seen since Duan's convalescence, and the Russians were widely thought to prefer Wu to Duan as it was, and that the long-term plan from St. Petersburg was to have Xu Shuzheng and Wang Yitang assassinated as soon as Duan stepped down or died so that Wu could cleanly step into power. As for the Emperor, it was known that strains had risen between the "prisoner of the palace" and his Prime Minister, in part due to the Palace's lack of confidence in the sustainability of Duan's health, and in part because Duan regarded the Emperor as an easily-flattered simpleton who knew enough to be dangerous.

    Nonetheless, the April 18 Incident - as the attempted putsch in Mukden came to be known - failed largely because the "Cao Kun Coup" did not build sufficient support with Manchuria's three power centers independent of Duan, and was thus terribly outmatched. Cao planned to launch his attack by mobilizing forces under his command southeast of Mukden and attacking the city directly in the early morning and seizing its northern railroad station connecting it to Harbin; thereafter, presumably, he assumed that Wu would agree to his proposal to immediately depose Duan and send him into exile in Korea, thereafter killing Xu and Wang and allowing a new troika of Cao, Wu and Zhang Jingyao to form a new cabinet as appointed by the Emperor and blessed with the acquiescence of the Harbin Office. Cao was convinced, incorrectly, that there existed a deep well of antipathy towards Duan in the military ranks in Mukden and that his putsch would be quick, relatively bloodless, and finally end the scattered internecine killings.

    None of those things occurred. Wu ignored three telephone calls from the southern barracks in the early hours of April 18 by "oversleeping," [1] suggesting that he may have been aware of what Cao was planning and decided to simply not lift a finger in either direction, thus dooming the other general without deliberately betraying him. The protege of the "Jade Marshal," Sun Chuanfang, mobilized his own troops and surrounded Mukden Palace, claiming that there was a threat against the Emperor and that he was defending the Imperial Family from harm. As this was going on, Duan was roused and immediately had his own loyalist troops mobilized to defend the train station, a battle which he supervised personally against the advice of Xu.

    The April 18 Incident was thus a massive debacle for Cao, who upon seeing his men dispersed and realizing that neither Wu nor the Russian Army was coming to his aid - Russian troops in Manchuria, who generally did not enter Mukden's city limits as a courtesy to Duan, were not even placed on alert by the Harbin Office - that the game was up. One of the great heroes of the defense and evacuation of Peking had turned traitor, driven by his own ambitions and those of junior officers who had been excluded by the Wu and Xu cliques from high office; Cao fled south to the Great Wall, where he was apprehended by Republican border patrolmen and secretly returned to Mukden, where he was shot alongside his fellow conspirators and buried in a mass unmarked grave ten kilometers east of the city.

    The "hourglass" missive to London was apropos, however. Duan had been directly challenged in a way that courtiers like Wu and Xu would never have dared, and while an immediate external threat to his control was gone, the near-miss nonetheless did much to challenge his authority. Duan already seemed tired and like he could not control the authoritarian regime he had constructed out of the Manchurian military on behalf of the Emperor; to quietly reward Wu, he relieved Wang Yitang of the Finance Ministry he had held for four years and installed Sun, thus empowering Wu enormously at the expense of Xu, who had always been his most loyal fellow traveler and who spent the months after April 18 purging the civil service of any suspected allies of Cao. In that appointment, Duan signed the death warrant of his Premiership and in many ways Xu's literal death warrant.

    The April 18 Incident also persuaded a great many Manchurian junior officers that a putsch to remove the "old guard" was not only possible, but perhaps had a high chance of success with better planning and preparation, and that the system of cliques and factional murders was one that would eventually plunge Mukden into chaos and invite a Republican invasion. Crucially, the fiasco also suggested as much to the Harbin Office, which lost an enormous amount of confidence in the Duan-Xu diarchy but also wanted a backup option to Wu Peifu, should they need one.

    And as luck would have it, amongst the Manchurian officers attached to Harbin proper, they had just such a name - Chang Tso-lin..." [2]

    - The Northern Citadel: Manchuria 1912-1957

    [1] That feeling when there's a coup going on and you "oversleep"
    [2] This is going to be a very important name by the mid-1920s or thereabouts
     
    For Thine is the Glory: Brazil and Integralism
  • "...visions of Rio de Janeiro not as the capital of a united nation, but of a colonial master not unlike Portugal in the 18th century. The satire depicted explorers at the Academy of Sciences poring over maps of Brazil like Vasco de Gama uncovering new worlds, preparing reports for merchants of locals in Recife or Salvador as if they were Chinese or Indians who spoke a different tongue entirely. Subtle, it was not; the Brazil of Lima Barreto's works was a disjointed, depressed, and disunited country reeling in the wake of economic crisis and having lost much of a generation of young men to the trenches and swampy diseases of the Mesopotamia.

    Of course, there was some irony in the fact that Barreto was himself a lifelong resident of Rio de Janeiro, hardly some provincial rube, and despite his alcoholism one of the country's most esteemed radical authors and social critics. That perhaps made him more dangerous; the fault-line of prewar Brazilian politics had after all been not class or ideology but region, of the peripheral and impoverished provinces of the North pitted against the wealth of Sao Paolo, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul. For men of the North, such as Padre Cicero, blaming the South for their capriciousness and arrogance was easy; for the South, Northerners were lazy layabouts who were little better than livestock. As such, despite his writing having been acerbic for years, Barreto's barrage of righteously outraged essays in 1918 struck like a thunderclap - Southern-educated, Southern-born writers simply did not denounce their own kind, and they certainly did not do so as the country mourned its mutilated victory.

    What made Barreto's screeds particularly noteworthy was his identification of the Brazilian conservative establishment as the direct cause of the "national humiliation" and the "festering malaise." Though he did not denounce Hermes Fonseca by name, the implications were clear, and stand-ins for the late Pinheiro Machado were easy enough for a reader to see. Even more so, Barreto's portrayal of the "wandering vicar" seemed clear to mean Padre Cicero and other itinerant priests, preachers and healers, and here his work turned ominous: "there is an affliction in the flesh of sitting still and observing nothing," he closed one of his essays with, "to which the antidote is only the wisdom of those who never cease moving, and observe all." What was the meaning behind this? To most readers, it seemed clear to suggest the insularity of the landed aristocracy was now a disease upon Brazil, and the rootlessness of not only those like Padre Cicero but the mass unemployed who often followed him from village to village like he was Christ the Redeemer himself was the cure. Revolution, in other words.

    That this language came not from the radical left but from a man whose writings could, at best, be described as bordering upon reactionary and blaming Brazilian people for their own laziness and incuriosity was as much a shock as anything else. Barreto was an ardent nationalist and ferocious opponent of corruption and incompetence; what he suggested was synthesizing this thinking with a new paradigm for the Brazilian people. Had he not been a depressive, abrasive drunk, he indeed have had the brewing of something quite potent on his hands. As it were, his ideas were just that - ideas, meant to inspire debate through easily-digestible satire that could be understood by the masses or at the very least get a chuckle and an understanding nod of familiarity - and hardly a manifesto of doctrine or an outright call to arms. Much as parish priests warned the penitent to avoid Barreto's Brazil in Six Parts, and as newspapers refused to run his polemics, the damage was done - Brazil's establishment had been ridiculed and ravaged, and the ire of the masses pointed in their direction for the first time even if nobody stood at the head.

    More importantly, the language of Barreto caught notice of disaffected young intellectuals who shared many of his resentments but had yet to fully synthesize them or make the leap from identifying the cancer to assigning blame for it, such as the young newspaperman in Sao Bento by the name of Plinio Salgado..." [1]

    - For Thine is the Glory: Brazil and Integralism

    [1] We have of course met Salgado during the war already, but now we're starting to see some of the cultural forces in Brazil at work between Padre Cicero and Barreto's mass appeal. Salgado is, of course, as of yet just some random writer in little Sao Bento. For now.
     
    Second Wave: The Postwar Progressive Revolution of 1917-31
  • "...the moderative-progressive movement within the Liberal Party remained undeterred by the exit stage right of President Hughes and the relative anonymity of figures such as James Garfield within the Root administration; the anti-reactionary current within the party, which saw itself as holding down a broad but brittle middle American point of view as opposed to the gauche Democrats and grouchy conservatives within their own party, had never been a top-down organization, after all. The losses in the state legislatures in 1914 and 1916 had badly damaged that wing, though, and their success in capturing control of state and county party organizations after the disastrous nomination of Samuel Pennypacker against William Randolph Hearst by the conservative bosses had not been entirely undone, but certainly close. The Root era saw the bosses trying to re-assert their dominance a decade after losing it, and the internecine warfare within the Liberals was starting to get ugly, just as the 1918 midterm election loomed on the horizon.

    The "progressives" were a pretty diverse sort; there were establishmentarian figures such as Illinois' Richard Yates, who had been Hughes' favored Senate catspaw, as well as traditional good-government reformers like Henry L. Roberts of Connecticut, but also genuine radical thinkers like Ole Hanson of Washington or Hiram Johnson of California. The true north star of anti-reactionary Liberalism, however, was Robert LaFollette of Wisconsin, a mercurial personality famed for his wit, his oratory, his temper, and his heterodox ideas and practices that made him a sui generis as far as Senators went. And the looming disaster the Liberals faced at the polls can, in part, be foreseen in the way that his report on wartime profiteering was handled by Boies Penrose.

    Though utterly forgotten to the present-day public, Penrose was a widely loathed figure by much of the American polity by the middle of 1918. He was simultaneously viewed as an all-powerful and corrupt party boss straight out of the 19th century and, as Mellon's reputation further diminished in the face of the deepening postwar depression, viewed as "Mellon's man" in the Senate, an irony seeing as how Penrose had lobbied for Mellon to be made Secretary of the Treasury. [1] In March of 1918, rotting vegetables from a market in Philadelphia were thrown at his stately townhome near the site on Fairmount Hill he had personally picked for the massive new Capitol complex by angry protestors; even members of his own party were starting to get restless under his blinkered, stubborn leadership. He was thus also perhaps not the best man to handle somebody as famously prickly as LaFollette, who largely walked to the beat of his own drum.

    LaFollette had by 1918 turned into something of a folk hero in his home state of Wisconsin, building a highly personalist machine that cooperated with "Red Milwaukee" and on the backs of German and Scandinavian voters who otherwise may have leaned conservative constructed a progressive example for the rest of the country, with a slew of policies and reforms passed since the turn of the century to make Wisconsin something of a "laboratory of progressivism." His votes in the Senate generally aligned with his own moral compass and he delighted in frustrating a party leadership he felt increasingly alienated by; because of this idiosyncratic style, he had been the obvious choice to head the LaFollette Commission, the panel investigating the procurement of arms during the war.

    The structure of the LaFollette Commision was unusual; upon its formation in 1914 it had had six Democrats and three Liberals, with LaFollette as chair, a major concession on the part of Democratic Senate leadership made only because of their total trust in LaFollette's independence and integrity. With Colorado's "Honest John" Shafroth as his co-chair, LaFollette had surprised even his most skeptical detractors by pursuing his mandate not as a high-level Congressional investigator but as a high inquisitor, framing war profiteering and price gouging as a moral outrage to the general public that was making enormous sacrifices. This had, unsurprisingly, made LaFollette a name with the public well beyond Wisconsin, and had also elevated Shafroth's profile a great deal within the Senate Democratic Caucus.

    The First LaFollette Report had, in part, helped bring about the Ballinger Affair that took down Hughes' original Secretary of the Navy, and for this reason Penrose was reluctant to see LaFollette continue his work with Liberals now in control of the Senate and the war over. He acquiesced to LaFollette's demands on the condition that the next (and final) report expand upon the work of his original to outline potential future improvements for Army and Navy procurement and, at former War Secretary Henry Stimson's insistence, propose a "readiness standard" for war materiel in a peacetime economy. LaFollette did this with gusto, but also quietly continued his hearings on war profiteering that were reported on widely and in May of 1918 he was ready to submit the Second LaFollette Report, clocking in at over three thousand meticulously researched and written pages.

    Penrose did not need to read more than the table of contents to recoil in horror. LaFollette not only expounded upon the methods of war profiteering but named and shamed companies that had done so, calculating their "misbegotten earnings" down to the cent in some cases and including tables and graphs of their companies' shares on the New York Stock Exchange, comparing returns and dividends to firms that did not price gouge. Even some executives were accused directly by name, with recent lavish purchases or vacations being identified and thus heavily implied to be downstream of their gouging; LaFollette also helpfully identified which Senators, from both parties, had taken campaign donations from them.

    The outrage that this report was likely to cause with the public, the business community, and the Senate itself was impossible to measure, but easy to predict. Penrose was alarmed in particular at the insinuations that certain Senators were corrupt from having taken donations from "gougers," and he immediately returned the finalized report to LaFollette, who had pointedly not sent him a draft, refusing to countenance releasing it publicly. LaFollette had asked to read it into the Senate record, which Penrose also refused, and the Liberal leader suggested that "the report needs revisions." LaFollette understood exactly what Penrose meant by that, and responded in an in-person meeting between the men, quite tersely, "[that] it may not be wise to make such threats with a majority so narrow and unpredictable." The threat was clear: LaFollette was willing to abandon the Liberal caucus, either to sit as an independent or maybe even as a Democrat, if Penrose did not budge. With a 33-31 majority and frequent absences, Penrose's ability to manage his razor-thin caucus was already difficult enough, especially with his mounting personal unpopularity; despite his stubbornness on policy, Penrose was even more stubborn about clinging to power, and he blinked.

    The compromise was that the LaFollette Commission would release its report to all Senators as well as House leadership, the Root administration, and the Philadelphia press; LaFollette would not read anything into the Senate record beyond the Report's opening summary, which itself was close to fifty pages. LaFollette begrudgingly agreed that this was a reasonable solution and more than half a loaf, but as he already disliked and distrusted Penrose's personalism, the damage of the whole episode was done; he would never cease believing that Penrose and his "cabal" were more interested in protecting corrupt oligarchs than actually bettering the ability of the US Army to fight a future war, and the clock on his time left amongst the Liberals was quickly ticking down thereafter. [2] As Penrose predicted, the Report generated a massive public relations backlash that badly damaged the Liberals, and hopes it would blow over by the autumn were ill-founded; even the passage of the Immigration Act of 1918 by massive bipartisan majorities, intended to appeal to nativist concerns and worries of the unemployed, failed to end the perception that had stuck of the Liberals as not only inept and heartless, but hypocrites on the question of public corruption..." [3]

    - Second Wave: The Postwar Progressive Revolution of 1917-31

    [1] Note that Root is often perceived by the media, at least Liberal-hostile media, as being Mellon's puppet, too. Mellon was not Jewish so this is not an anti-Semitic trope, obviously, but what I'm trying to seed here is a public that sees "bankers" and "Wall Street" as pulling the strings, and Mellon as the personification of that in the public eye.
    [2] Congrats, Dan
    [3] It's going to take a long wilderness in the 1920s and an inoffensive blank slate candidate like Pershing to repair the damage taken in 1917-20, in other words
     
    Immigration Act of 1918 (Part I)
  • "...Root was a man of his time and shared a number of his contemporaries' prejudices against Jews, Asians, and Southern Europeans. That being said, he had never been a member of the Immigration Restriction League nor ever lobbied with any particular vigor for more stringent curbs on immigration beyond the standard tests for mental acuity and sanitation, and he was personally alarmed by the explosion in popularity of the ADL over the course of the prior six months, predicting (correctly) that "within five years, the American Defense League will operate either as a transpartisan facsimile of Canada's Orange Lodge, or as a political movement untethered from electoral politics entirely."

    The Immigration Act of 1918 was not some high-minded effort to head off the popularity of odious nativist groups like the ADL, however, but rather a response to a number of accelerating pressures from across the political spectrum. A backlash against the Southern and Eastern European arrivals had been brewing amongst the Protestant-majority middle class since the beginning of the decade - some historians have explained it as part of the reason for the swings towards the Liberals in 1910 and 1912 even though immigration was barely considered an issue of policy in those elections - and only the war had delayed it becoming ripe. Bottled up for three years as Ellis Island swelled with bodies to feed America's factories, farms and armies, it had detonated in the wake of the Minneapolis General Strike and the postwar economic depression, with immigrants being scapegoated for the triple scourges of high unemployment, high inflation, and high crime. Not only that, but Irish Democrats - long one of the most reliably pro-immigration constituencies - had begun to sour on the unfettered movement of people to American shores, in part due to the high social tensions but also because Irish Americans (and a good number of actual Irishmen, too) had served and died disproportionately in the American Army and were the most outraged at their difficulty at finding work upon coming home from the front. Further, the expiration of the Ingalls Act in 1913 had led to as many as a quarter of a million Chinese arriving on the West Coast during the war years and close to fifty thousand in 1917, and the refugee crisis across the Ohio showed no sign of abetting a full year after Mount Vernon.

    This all coalesced into a rapidly emerging bipartisan consensus that something had to be done; moderate Liberals and Eastern Democrats persuaded themselves that they needed to defend American employment to tighten an over-abundant pool of labor, while culturally reactionary Liberals and Sinophobic Western Democrats saw in the contours of the debate around the Immigration Act of 1918 in the spring of that year the chance to enact draconian restrictions they had always advocated for. It did not take long for the Act to come together, and it was passed on May 20, 1918, after only sixteen hours of debate in the House 390-32, with all Socialists and scattered gadflies in the other two parties voting against, and it would pass the Senate two days later to be signed by Root shortly before Congress' summer recess. For the first time, the United States would have a strict immigration regime based not only on a head tax, or lack of mental or physical ailment, or rejection of criminals - but structured by country of origin..."

    - The Root of the Problem: The Tumultuous Term of America's 29th President

    "..the Immigration Act of 1918 fell far short of what stalwarts of the Immigration Restriction League had pushed for since the late 1890s, in part thanks to the bill being crafted largely by the conservative but pragmatic Ohio Liberal Nicholas Longworth and Ilinois' Adolph Sabath, an Austrian-born Jewish Democrat. [1] Men like Pennsylvania's Tom Butler, the Liberal House Majority Leader, or California's viciously Sinophobe Senator James Phelan were not part of its writing; indeed, Butler denounced the act as insufficient in its scope even as he whipped in its favor, and promised that a returned Liberal majority would go further at their next bite at the apple.

    The Act's structure was in many ways Sabath's idea; he was, as his background would suggest, generally very favorable towards immigration to the United States but the postwar chaos had led him to acknowledge that there were perhaps upper limits on how many immigrants the country could absorb annually, both in terms of unemployment and in how easy it was for immigrants to assimilate. For such a longtime advocate against restrictionism to help write the bill to join with Longworth to do so gave the imprimatur for many other skeptical Congressmen in both parties to listen. Sabath's bill rejected any kind of literacy test, did not include provisions the deportation of "radicals, subversives and undesirables," and also did not raise the head tax; rather, it set an annual allotment of persons from every country based on the number of persons of that "national origin" who had been present in the United States in 1910. This formula massively advantaged immigrants from places such as Germany, Ireland, Scandinavia or (Sabath's home country) Austria-Hungary, while disadvantaging Southern and Eastern Europe; that was, perhaps, in part by design. This was heretofore known as the "National Origins Formula," and it would remain in place for decades as the guiding structure of US immigration policy, even as the formula was adjusted gradually over time. [2]

    The 1918 Act went much further than that, however, and here Phelan's fingerprints can be found on Sabath's otherwise pragmatic compromise bill. Democrats from the Pacific to the Mississippi River had for decades been clamoring for a mass prohibition on Chinese immigration to the United States, and by the mid-1910s were vehemently opposed to Japanese immigration as well. At key junctures, such hopes had fizzled out - James Blaine had not wanted to risk his treaties with Qing China in the early 1880s, James Ingalls had watered down a blanket ban after the San Francisco pogrom, etc - but the waves of Chinese arriving in California since 1913 had triggered a violent response. The problem, of course, was that China had not long earlier gone through a revolution and become the world's largest and most populous republican democracy, extremely corrupt and flawed as it may have been, and Eastern interests were undergoing the early beginnings of an elite Sinophilia that their Western counterparts most certainly did not share. New York bankers and Philadelphia politicians saw in China "the emerging dragon of world republicanism flying alongside the Columbian Eagle's outstretched wings, counterparts on either side the Pacific," as Theodore Roosevelt put it in his New York Journal; West Coast politicians and newspapermen described the Chinese in San Francisco, Seattle or Portland as little better than rats. Western Democrats began to coalesce around a position of rejecting the Act entirely if it did not exclude Asians from American shores, and a bipartisan group of Midwestern Representatives from Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, West Virginia and western Pennsylvania emerged shortly thereafter to reject the Act as well if it did not do something to counter the streams of refugees trying to escape Kentucky or through the hollers of the Ozarks and Appalachians..."

    - The Yellow Peril

    [1] An interesting fellow; at one point Dean of the House, an ardent anti-Prohibitionist who was violently opposed to the Klan, and generally skeptical of strict immigration restrictions. Dunno how realistic him drafting such a bill is, in other words, but this is my in-universe explanation for how the Immigration Act of 1918 winds up being comparatively tame (unless you're Chinese or from Dixie, as we'll see in Part II)
    [2] This is how the 1917/18 Immigration bills worked; the more draconian 1924 Act, which was passed in the shadow of the German Revolution and Russian Civil War, as well as by a larger OTL Republican majority combined with Southern Democrats, adjusted that formula to be the number of people from those countries in 1890. I don't think it's possible to not have some kind of immigration backlash after the GAW, but here the 1918 formula is as far as it goes.
     
    Immigration Act of 1918 (Part II)
  • "...the question of Negro immigration to the United States was considerably more complicated than generalized Liberal opposition to Southern Europeans or Democratic opposition to Asians; Black intellectuals had been a cornerstone of the pre-War of Secession abolition movement and thanks in large to the efforts of Booker T. Washington and organizations such as ONE had developed an even more sophisticated network of schools and societies, in particular linked through churches and ministries and benevolent charities in cities with large Black populations such as Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Philadelphia. To an extent which Southern Europeans (who often returned home after a few years of working and remittances) and especially Asians (who were barred from citizenship), Black arrivals from the Confederacy had a real, powerful and ideologically astute lobby supporting them in the Union, and had for decades.

    The circumstances of 1916-18 were very different than the sporadic flow of freedmen and runaways since the late 1870s, however. It was not five to ten thousand per year but rather hundreds of thousands in a short, concentrated period of time, refugees from squalid camps, victims of gruesomely violent internecine guerilla warfare across much of the wrecked industrial Midlands of Dixie. Especially as concerns about a deadly new flu spreading across the Deep South in the spring of 1918 got the attention of American policymakers, the "Negro Question" became a live one: could, and should, the flow of freedmen from south of the Ohio be permitted to continue.

    The question did not cut cleanly. Unlike Philadelphian and Bostonian conservatives who were, counterintuitively, the leading tip of the spear in terms of abolitionist maximalism, the more pragmatic Midwestern Liberals were more hostile to the continued flow, an endeavor in which they were joined by their Democratic colleagues. It was Ohio's Newton Baker, the progressive champion of urban reform and who would be a household name as one of the country's great crusading Senators in the 1920s, who suggested that the Immigration Act be extended to the Confederacy, and he was quickly joined by his home state Liberal colleague Frank Monnett and West Virginia's Thomas Riley. Concerns for refugee welfare were definitely a live concern - Baker traveled personally to Kentucky to investigate the conditions of refugee camps, and was appalled by what he found - though plain old racial animus factored just as much, as can be evidenced in the words of West Virginia's John W. Davis, who warned of a "negroid invasion" and suggested that "the mixing of the races in Indianapolis and Columbus has threatened the cohesiveness of society in those cities and has escalated the breakdown of civilization there!" One thing they shared, though, was a strong belief that Henry Cabot Lodge and his ilk were, at best, naive about what exactly was happening in the Ohio Valley and, in Baker's case, thought he was a gargantuan hypocrite for his xenophobic opposition to illiterate Europeans but being completely fine with illiterate freedmen.

    While men like Davis were denied their desire to ban "all entry of the African race," a Midwestern consensus (buffeted by support from Maryland's senators, who were fending off a smaller refugee crisis of their own) emerged to apply the 3% quota based on the 1910 census to arrivals from Dixie, which would place a firm cap on how many freedmen could enter the country every year, controlled by a new border control bureau that the Act was already authorizing; ports of entries such a Cincinnati, Cairo, and Evansville, in addition to the bridges at Fredericksburg, would be required to report diligent figures to make sure the quota was not exceeded. Baker viewed this as an eminently fair compromise that allowed for continued immigration from the Confederacy, but also prevented the type of crushing rush that had overwhelmed the Ohio Valley for close to three years.

    Whether as retaliation for this or just his pique against Dixie remaining whetted after Mount Vernon, Lodge orchestrated an amendment through his ally Senator John Weeks, which placed a unique restriction on one country, and one country only - the banning of entry of "any man who can credibly be assumed [emphasis ours] to have aided and participated in the war effort of the Confederate States in the years 1913 to 1916." The legislative history of this amendment and its debate make clear this was meant to be aimed exclusively at white men who had fought on the front lines of the Confederacy, though later Supreme Court interpretation expanded that definition to factory workers as well, essentially blocking an entire generation of white Confederates from potentially heading north..."

    - A Freedom Bought With Blood: Emancipation and the Postwar Confederacy

    "...leaving only Japan and Korea untouched, though a "gentleman's agreement" between Lodge and Ito Hirobumi, one of Japan's chief ministers, in early 1920 severely restricted Japan's issuing of passports to people leaving for the United States, though well short of a blanket ban. Chinese, Indian, Filipino, Indochinese - all were barred indefinitely from immigrating to the United States, a provision that Root acquiesced to when it was clear his veto could be overriden. Sino-American relations, excellent for most the 1910s, were in sharp decline not long thereafter.

    The 1918 law created a new immigration bureaucracy and was intended to protect the ethnic composition of the United States, but the numbers of immigrants still remained relatively elevated, even during the Central European War..."

    - Second Wave: The Postwar Progressive Revolution of 1917-31
     
    The Radical Republic
  • "...drawing inspiration from the "Red Summer" of mass labor action in the United States; Argentine laborers determined that if their American counterparts could credibly demand better pay and working conditions, then they could too. Of course, in many ways Argentina's progressive, pro-labor constitutional and legal reforms of the past two decades had created an arguably higher baseline from which to work for Argentine labor, even if pay and standard of living in Argentina was considerably below that of the US (whatever comparisons of per capita gross domestic product may have suggested otherwise); nonetheless, the demands of the railroad strikers who walked off the job in late October 1917 and triggered a fifty-day railroad strike that ground the country's recovering economy to a halt and triggered a wide-ranging recession that furthered President Barroetavena's unpopularity with the masses.

    It was not the Great Rail Strike of the summer of 1917-18 that truly revolutionized the postwar years but rather the Revolucion Universitaria, begun on March 31, 1918 in Cordoba and carrying over across the country in the weeks and months thereafter. The factors that led to this revolution were broad and are still debated today, but mark an inflection point of Argentine history, in particular its long and storied post-1892 history of political radicalism and social movements. The first factor was, of course, the dire economy of 1916-18, in which Argentina struggled to pivot to a postwar market and regain lost export share (particularly to Canada and Australia) after their economy had been badly damaged by first the imposition of Imperial Preference [1] and then the collapse in exports itself for two full years of war. This had created an atmosphere of radicalism, abetted by the ambitions of Hipolito Yrigoyen, who had come so close to tasting victory in 1916 and whose motivated supporters were only angrier two years later, dominating legislative elections and seeing Barroetavena's Civic Union relegated to third, behind the Radical Party of Yrigoyen and Lisandro de la Torre's conservative-liberal, centrist-colored Democratic Progressive Party, and under Yrigoyen's friend and ideological fellow traveler Jose Camilo Crotto the Radicals had managed to win the governorship of the Province of Buenos Aires. The students who commandeered the campus of the University of Cordoba were thus inspired not only by the successful and militant rail strike that concluded the previous year to kick off Argentina's own Verano Rojo, but also the success of the political movement that they identified with and an hour of Argentine history that seemed possibly just as revolutionary as the early 1890s that had brought the Civic Union to power in the first place.

    That the Revolucion Universitaria erupted at Cordoba was no accident. Since the foundation of Argentine universities, they had been bastions of the right, only slightly moderated politically in the cultural milieu of a generation of Alemismo but still strictly controlled in many cases by Jesuit clergy and upper-class alumni. Professors enjoyed lifetime tenure in a shadowy process that stank of patronage and were exclusively in charge of curriculum, admissions standards (which by 1918 were designed to protect the privileges of the "lettered classes") and academic discipline, which often ended in students sanctioned and even expelled for political activism with which they disagreed. While Cordoba, in a deeply Catholic city and with an unusually reactionary administration, was an extreme example, such provisions existed in some form or another across the entirety of Argentina.

    That the universities received a fair amount of support and financial subsidy from the government made much of this highly controversial, especially after a law was passed late in 1915 by the outgoing Congress of Deputies to make it harder for veterans of the war to be rejected from attending university in Argentina, and offered a substantial financial incentive to academic departments to accept said veterans. This was a populist measure highly popular amongst the public and amongst well-organized veterans groups in particular, and a newer, more radical group of students began stepping onto campus on March 31, 1916, the traditional first day of school (though not necessarily instruction) in Argentina in that time. Two years later, close to half of the country's university students were veterans of the war, who had considerably different views on the role of the public in decision-making and the role of the Church than students of the cloistered Argentine upper-class that "tolerated" Alemism did. As such, on March 31, 1918, students at Cordoba reported not for convocation but for mass action, seizing control of the administration building, several dormitories and two lecture halls, and lowered the flag of the university over the main hall to instead raise the flag of Argentina, all while singing marching anthems from the front.

    The administration called in the police to break up the students but were chased off by men who had often just a few years earlier been fighting Brazilians to the death along the Parana; when Barroetavena asked the national army to march on Cordoba to "keep the peace," he killed whatever goodwill the Civic Union had with left-wing radicalism for good, and for his troubles saw most soldiers who approached the university refuse to break up the occupation even by non-violent means. Sympathy strikes erupted on other campuses, with students listing similar demands for free tuition, academic freedom through secular instruction, competitive appointment of professors, and institutionalization of student government organizations on campus alongside faculty. When troops in Buenos Aires also refused to break up that university's strikes and Yrigoyen appeared on campus to give a stem-winding speech encouraging the students not to surrender, Barroetavena and his chief advisors quickly deduced that it was a very short path from the ongoing protests - which while intimidating to conservative faculty were nonviolent and their demands well within the bounds of Alemist democratic norms - to soldiers crossing over to link arms with the students. Barroetavena was no reactionary, but he was very much an institutionalist, and having observed how quickly things had turned south in Chile in January 1915, he did not want an echo of such events on his watch.

    Accordingly, he pledged to support a package of laws that would meet many student demands immediately and more substantive reforms on institutional independence for universities and the secularization of state schools. This was met with an eruption of anger from conservative, Catholic groups, but mollified student protestors long enough for instruction to restart, and the University Reform of 1918 was passed before the end of August. The students had won and Argentina had once again seen mass action deliver results for the populace in short order - the democratic superstructure had not only held, but thrived. [2]

    The Revolucion Universitaria further inspired other Latin American countries with powerful, clerical university faculty to begin approaching reforms, though the road there without Argentina's well-established progressive and secular mode of radical governance would be much longer and fraught..."

    - The Radical Republic

    [1] A common economic theme of the 1910s
    [2] Different in that Yrigoyen isn't President here, of course, but much of these university events are much like OTL - this chapter inspired in part by "The American System" by @TheHedgehog
     
    Between Two Chiles
  • "...necessity of victory before winter fell in Chile's frigid south. The rapid collapse of Surista positions since the fall of Los Angeles in the early spring had helped, however, and the overwhelming advantage in light artillery and aerial firepower finally tipped the scale; Alessandri was warned by Altamirano that a siege of Puerto Montt, even with the Suristas severely limited, would be an ugly affair, likely lasting weeks and with the enemy fighting to the last man.

    It was indeed worse than that; after the rapid advance from October to December through southern Chile inspiring government forces (particularly after their seizure of Valdivia on Christmas Day), fighting got bogged down in the teeth of resistance in the most dedicated of Surista territory, the country of itinerant preachers, several churches per town, and deep superstitions that blended pre-Christian beliefs with the most dogmatic Catholicism anywhere in the Southern Cone. The terrain west and south of Valdivia lent itself to difficult fighting even at the head of summer, but by late January the Army was moving, its supply lines even longer than before but supported by resources through Valdivia by sea, on towards Puerto Montt, clearing every town house by house. This was the ugliest stage of the Civil War; Bartolome Blanche, later a major figure in the Socialist Republic's "Red Juntas," [1], described in his diaries as a brigade commander in those hard months what can charitably be described as scorched earth campaigning, less charitably as gruesome war crimes. Towns were burned to the ground as crops and livestock were confiscated; on at least three occasions on the road to Puerto Montt, Blanche witnessed but did nothing to interrupt cases where women and children were ushered into churches that were subsequently burned to the ground, after witnessing all the men and boys over the age of twelve killed in the town square, bludgeoned or bayoneted to save bullets and powder.

    Puerto Montt's landside defenses were finally invested in early February, after which followed not a few weeks of siege but rather over three months, with the city not falling until May 20. Aldunate pointedly refused entreaties to evacuate his men by sea - "evacuate where?" he asked incredulously - and surrender for many Suristas was not an option, so convinced were they that they were fighting a holy war against a barbaric, godless enemy. Planes bombarded the city every day with dynamite and other crude mining explosives, or strafed defensive trenches, but nonetheless the Suristas held on doggedly against the Colorado forces. Altamirano, after two failed offensives in mid-March had failed to breach the trenches, instead elected to starve the city's defenders and civilians out, focusing huge attention on destroying the city's docks to make it impossible to bring food ashore from the fishing villages dotting the fjords of southern Chile and sinking vessels that passed into the Seno de Reloncavi, after capturing high ground near Colaco that gave his planes total domination over the Chacao Channel and Sea of Chiloe. Inside the city, public order began to rapidly deteriorate as salted fish ran out and whatever meat was left was prioritized for defenders; by late May, people were eating shoe leather, mice, and dirt to stay full, and when the city eventually collapsed of hunger, it was an exhausted, grim populace who were surrendering to Altamirano, not dogged resistance fighters.

    How violent the fall of Puerto Montt actually was is debatable in Chile even today; Patria y Libertad commanders made it an article of faith for decades that thousands were slaughtered wholesale, including crucifixions and beheadings. This is highly doubtful, and not just considering the source; even Blanche, who kept meticulous records of his colleagues' depravity in the south of Chile, described Puerto Montt's collapse as remarkably civilized compared to some of what he had seen just months earlier. The besiegers were decently fed and by May had become very comfortable lobbing artillery and dropping bombs rather than attacking, and there was little frustration to take out; Surista leaders like Silvestre Ochagavia and Francisco Valdes, when captured, were quickly condemned and executed by firing squad on the beaches of the Seno de Reloncavi in proceedings best described as extrajudicial, but soldiers by all accounts were given the first bread and dried meat they'd tasted in weeks. Narratives, it turn out, are much more powerful to a conquered people than the truth.

    The Civil War effectively ended May 20-21st at Puerto Montt, in no small part because Aldunate, in the end, did evacuate - in a small dinghy under cover of night, then by packmule over the Andes as winter started to set in and thereafter smuggled in a barrel from Chubut to Brazil, and from then on to Havana, where he lived in destitution for several years until he began receiving a generous, anonymous stipend to live more comfortably in a second-story apartment a few blocks off the city's famed Prado. His presence was quiet, only occasionally joining other right-wing Chilean exiles for dinner; upon the imposition of the Socialist Republic in 1924, his company in Cuba became much more liberal in flavor, though he often shunned men whom he knew to have been Alessandrists. He commented seldom on Chilean politics publicly or in published writing, but he did compile extensive diaries and memoirs that were published posthumously following his death of stroke in 1931. A rallying figure for the Chilean far-right, he was not; but an important figure in Chilean postwar history, he was, as his hour ended in the south in 1918.

    The defeat at Puerto Montt meant that, with the exception of scattered guerilla bands in the southern Andes and on Chiloe Island, the war was over, and the soldiers could begin to return home. Alessandri was ecstatic - his Radical Republic had, at last, triumphed over a dogged enemy that at the outset of the war had enjoyed considerable public support, especially in the rural south. The program to reintegrate the whole of the country was still to come - schools built, churches repaired, roads paved - but first there was a time to take a deep breath and rejoice, because as Chile had discovered repeatedly since its fateful decision to dispatch ships to Chimbote Bay in September 1913, one never knew how long such relaxed breaths would last..."

    - Between Two Chiles

    [1] If you're reading between the lines and deciphering that between Grove and Blanche the Socialist Republic will have a very military flavor, you're correct.
     
    Ferdinand: The Last Emperor
  • "...how many historians hold Ferdinand largely, if not solely, responsible for deepening the Hungarian Crisis from the death of his uncle onwards, in large part taking the semi-consensus view that it was on his shoulders alone to deescalate tensions and find a compromise. This ignores that Ferdinand's advice from his Prague Circle was very poor (even if they often told him what he wanted to hear), that Germany and to a lesser extent Italy were beginning to outwardly and openly meddle in Hungarian affairs throughout the spring and summer of 1918, and that he also did not have many partners to compromise with in Hungary. It also must be noted that one of the most severe provocations between the dissolution of the Diet and the murder of Prince Franz lays at the feet of Karolyi.

    The December Crisis which led to the Diet's dissolution was perhaps an inevitability of the various machinations of the prior year, but were inherently a political dispute in which both sides drew hard red lines that they became increasingly unable to walk away from. Andrassy hoped that, with the Compromise extend temporarily until 1920 and the legislature suspended, he could begin a grand negotiation with Karolyi to lower temperatures and come to some kind of agreement as to what would come next, and overtures throughout the spring of 1918 through intermediaries in Milan led to no tangible outcome but persuaded Andrassy, who was no naive babe in the woods, that no more surprises loomed and that with more nudging Karolyi and Jaszi could see reason and embark on a "yearslong odyssey" to find a "constitutional solution" to the crisis enveloping the Dual Monarchy, with himself in the role of the great compromiser, Ferenc Deak.

    Such ideas were put to rest quickly and ruthlessly, as Karolyi took an action from which there was no turning back. One of the great disputes that had poisoned the atmosphere of late 1917 was Ferdinand's coronation in Vienna and his tentative plans for a coronation in Bohemia sometime the following year; that the first had occurred without a subsequent ceremony in Budapest was not surprising, but the idea that Bohemia would get a coronation before Hungary was a grievous insult, and one that Greens suspected was deliberate. The Prague coronation was, it turned out, just rumor - one perhaps spread by Magyar nationalists - but it scratched the right itches for Ferdinand's enemies, who already saw him as a Magyarphobe and Slavophile and were willing to believe just about anything about him. Ferdinand made things noticeably worse on May 26, 1918, when he acknowledged the fact that he had not traveled to Budapest to wear the Crown of Saint Stephen - one of Europe's holiest relics and the very symbol of Hungary herself - and thereafter recite the coronation oath. He expressed mild regret, before pivoting to blame "the politics of the hour" and obliquely suggested that he did not want to "provoke the sentiments of the hot-blooded" by going through with the coronation until "the current disputes are resolved, or moving towards doing so."

    Could Ferdinand have deescalated by being coronated in Budapest? Maybe. It was not a small gesture to the Hungarian street, and it was one that irritated even Romanians and Slovaks who took pride in the pageantry and sacred symbolism of the Crown of Saint Stephen. While Ferdinand had been on the throne just over a year, he was nonetheless the first Habsburg monarch to not have been crowned King of Hungary since Joseph II in the late 18th century and that he seemed in no hurry to secure that key piece of legitimacy told many Hungarians everything they needed to know - that Ferdinand II was not their Ferdinand IV in anything other than name, and that he was their imperial overlord, not sovereign king. Were Hungarians the co-equals of the Dual Monarchy, or a conquered people? Did Ferdinand spit on the Compromise he was so attached to?

    Ironically, at the exact time that Ferdinand sowed doubt with the Austrian newspapers that he would travel to Budapest - security concerns were part of the factor, too, as the Emperor had never forgotten his Magyarphile cousin's spectacular assassination thirty years earlier - he was in fact making plans to invite Karolyi to return from Milan and begin working towards a solution, and the coronation was something that Ferdinand considered a carrot to dangle for the Greens. If that was his plan, he miscalculated how willing Karolyi was to indulge, but even in such a miscalculation Karolyi's denunciation of him on May 31 for "refusing to take his solemn crown and abrogating his duty to Hungary." On June 2, a curious document began circulating Magyar exile circles in Milan, titled Kervenyt a Koronaert - the "Petition for the Crown," one of the most inflammatory and impactful writings in European history since the 99 Theses nailed to the church doors by Martin Luther:

    "In the event that an heir refuses to coronate himself before his people, can it be said that he has refused the Crown? And if he refuses the Crown and the holy oaths that tie him to it and the throne it represents, can it be said that he has left the throne empty? These are the questions which the House of Habsburg must answer - and the questions the Magyar people must begin to ask." This opening stanza to a three-paragraph missive was designed to be hypothetical and rhetorical, but its meaning was plain as day - it was an open argument that Ferdinand was effectively renouncing the throne of Hungary and, by extension, that of Croatia-Slavonia, and implied that Hungary sought a new King. A less aggressive version of the Kervenyt appeared in Budapest which simply asked why Ferdinand had not accepted a coronation and demanded he do so, but the Milanese draft was the one published - with Karolyi's signature listed first and largest, as a Magyar John Hancock - across Europe.

    No royal house in Europe was willing to entertain the idea that the Hungarian crown was indeed open - even Heinrich of Germany, a firm Magyarphile, rejected the Kervenyt outright and dismissed it as a "crude insult to Europe's oldest and noblest dynasty." But it was a remarkable escalation, one from which there was no return, in that Karolyi was seen in Vienna and elsewhere as now essentially advocating for the abdication of Ferdinand at least in Hungary, and rejecting him as an illegitimate ruler if he did not bend. The renewal of the Compromise now seemed to be the least of the Dual Monarchy's concerns.

    The Kervenyt proved to be the last straw for Victor Emanuel, who upon reading it and realizing its plain implications convened an emergency Cabinet meeting, wherein Prime Minister Vittorio Orlando argued, over objections from the more militant foreign minister Sidney Sonnino, that the clear course of action was to immediately expel Karolyi out of fear of a genuine geopolitical crisis. The King agreed, and on June 10, the Carabineri arrived at the house where Karolyi was staying, asked him to pack his suitcases, and board the next train to Switzerland; over the next week, every other Milan Magyar that had put their signature to the Kervenyt were asked to do likewise, and with that the Milan Magyars became the Zurich Magyars. In many ways, Switzerland was a more ideal exile anyways - it had long been a repository for European problems after Belgium ceased serving that function decades earlier - and Karolyi took to enjoying long ways along the shore of the lake. It was on one of those such walks, without warning in the late afternoon of June 28 - thirty years to the day of Crown Prince Rudolf's assassination in Budapest - that he was approached by a man he had sworn he had seen at the market the day before, and he recoiled as the stranger brandished a pistol and opened fire. One bullet grazed Karolyi's shoulder, the other lodged in his left rib; it was only by a miracle that the next two shots missed, and that a nearby banker out for a stroll attacked the assassin with his cane and bludgeoned him into submission until the police could arrive.

    Karolyi's doctors elected to stitch up his shoulder wound and were able to remove the bullet from his broken rib safely; though he lost a fair deal of blood, he would survive, albeit weakened for weeks. The assassin spoke German fluently and insisted to the police on his Swiss citizenship, giving the name Lukas Friedenberg, claiming to hail from a village near Lake Konstanz; that aroused Karolyi's suspicions even further upon hearing this and that the man could give no evidence he was in fact Swiss, deducing that his would-be killer was an Austrian agent hired to come into Switzerland and shoot him dead now that he was not under Italian semi-protection, and that was the conclusion most Greens both inside and outside of Hungary arrived at, too..."

    - Ferdinand: The Last Emperor
     
    The African Game: The European Contest for the Dark Continent
  • "...one of the most important factors in the outbreak of the Central European War occurred nowhere near Europe but rather deep in the African interior, though its echoes are still heard today, in both continents.

    The post-Malcolm-Jagow German Mittelafrika was, as it had been as Portuguese Austral-Africa, German largely only on paper; the Portuguese had taken a considerably lighter hand in the Zambezi basin than they ever had in West Africa or even the hinterlands of Lourenco Marques, and personalist relationships with kings and chieftains in the Katanga Highlands and the river valley had been critical to maintaining the peace over their lengthy and poorly-guarded road networks, widely regarded as the most dangerous in Africa. German goals were, immediately, to construct a more substantive rail connection all the way to Katanga from Benguela's fine port, and tasked the chief master of "Bushcraft" in Africa to secure it - Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck, [1] the longtime Commander-in-Chief of the Schutztruppe in Kamerun who had immediately upon the Anglo-German Convention's signing in 1916 been dispatched to the new Mittelafrika colonies to secure peace.

    Lettow-Vorbeck is an oft-romanticized figure in Germany and German-speaking Africa even today; with his upturned-brim safari hat and tight moustache he cut an imposing figure in a land exotic to many Europeans, and he was known for his bravery and love of Africa itself, his ability to adapt to country that provided little sustenance, and he was widely admired by his askaris, or native African fighters whom he recruited into the ranks of the Schutztruppe. While Lettow-Vorbeck was a man of his time and held many racial views that would be rejected today, he nonetheless treated soldiers under his command well, cared for their welfare, and his eventual command of both Umbundu and Chokwe allowed him to speak directly to African officers and earned the admiration of his charges. [2]

    Part of his legend, of course, was borne out of the Katanga Mission of 1918, in which he gathered a large force of askaris for a formal military tour of the colony's interior. Many chiefs had, in the two years since Malcolm-Jagow, never met a German other than scattered missionaries (invariably Catholic from South Germany or the Rhineland, so as to not disturb the delicate balance of Portuguese missions) who were dispatched primarily as translators to begin teaching African intermediaries German rather than Portuguese as the colony's new lingua franca; Lettow-Vorbeck considered this a particularly sensitive task, especially as many rulers throughout the interior had grown to respect the Portuguese and were understandably apprehensive about this new arrangement in which they had had no say. The key to this mission however was in Katanga, the grand prize of Mittelafrika, on the borders of the Congo Free State, and Lettow-Vorbeck's army arrived there on June 8, 1918 to treat with the King Mwenda, a distant relative of the warrior-king Msiri who had led Katanga into Portuguese arms in the late 1880s to protect from Belgian encroachment. The meeting, by all accounts, went well, in no small part thanks to Lettow-Vorbeck's understanding of African tribal and regal dynamics and Mwenda quickly deducing that the previous status quo was unlikely to change much. Had this been the end of it, the Katanga Mission would likely have been less than a footnote in history books of Africa, let alone Germany and Europe.

    But that was not to be, for on June 14th, German askaris raided two or three settlements along the Sankuru River on the border of Katanga, allegedly inside of the Congo Free State, and killed in the fray were several African, and two Belgian, members of the Force Publique..."

    - The African Game: The European Contest for the Dark Continent

    [1] Another reminder to read "8mm to the Left" if you can
    [2] Of course, he also 100% participated in the genocide of the Herero people (and possibly the Moros ITTL what with the German possession of Mindanao), so let's not romanticize him too much
     
    Second Congo Crisis (Part I)
  • "...African borders existed on maps, and not on the ground; surveys were unreliable and often fudged in favor of whoever was sponsoring them, and African natives themselves had their own ideas about where boundaries began and ended depending on who you asked, often boiling down to tribal loyalties. The dispute essentially boiled down to something in the end unproveable: the Germans were adamant that the Force Publique had provoked Lettow-Vorbeck's askari scouts first and done it having crossed onto German land, while Belgium maintained that Germans had raided into the Free State and carried out a massacre there. Germans both at the time and German scholars today are universally adamant that the instinct of the Reich at this time was to deescalate and that diplomats said as much to Belgian leadership; this is believable mostly if one chooses to believe that it was indeed within German Katanga that the disputed skirmish occurred. No map exists to suggest it did or did not, and there was no way to carry out an investigation, especially once Lettow-Vorbeck decamped back to Benguela.

    Could the Second Congo Crisis have been headed off there? Quite possibly. Colonial incidents occurred frequently, and not since the 1892 war scare over Siam had there been an event in either Africa or Asia that was thought to be bringing European Powers close to war; it was also generally thought that Belgium, being the small country it was, would seek the first exit from a highway to conflict it could. That the events of June and July of 1918 would lead to the eruption of war in March 1919 surprised perhaps few in hindsight - indeed, the summer of 1918 was sometimes called the "false start" or "war in sight" crisis because it looked like the trigger was close to being pulled then - but it took extra provocation, extra miscalculation, to take a murky and innocuous event in the deep heart of the Congo's dark jungles to push it to something more existential and epochal..."

    - The Central European War

    "...Heinrich trusted the assurances of not just Furstenburg but Solf and Lettow-Vorbeck's personal telegram that the attack had, quite clearly, occurred on German soil, and thus his response to Leopold III on June 26th was not one of apology but rather one of equivocation; he "regretted" the death of "officers of the Belgian crown" but noted that "the Congo is a dangerous part of the world, and it is understandable in such wild terrain how boundaries could be easily misconstrued." Leopold took chagrin to a number of things in such an otherwise innocuous missive, taking the "Belgian crown" comment to be a pointed commentary on the Free State being his personal possession to great controversy elsewhere in Europe and also taking Heinrich's benefit of the doubt that the Force Publique column had simply gotten lost as being sarcastic and goading.

    Against the backdrop of this, Furstenburg - who normally prided himself on his cold and calculating reputation and took great pains never to say one more word than he had to - uncharacteristically inflamed things even more, two days later on June 28th, when while leaving the Prussian Herrenhaus he was asked directly about angry comments in Belgium about the brewing colonial crisis, including what had been understood as a direct rather than vague threat of retaliatory raids into Katanga by the notoriously volatile Prince Stephane Clement. Furstenburg, who hated the press and had been caught off guard by their presence, grunted nearly under this breath, "Whales do not concern themselves with the idle rantings of trout!" Furstenburg's defenders have spent nearly a century since arguing, vociferously, that this was specifically a comment directed at Stephane Clement, who was throughout Europe widely regarded as a vain, degenerate idiot who spent most of his time embarrassing his father to the point that he had spent most of his adult life in semi-exile overseas so as to not cause more salacious drama. Furstenburg himself noted this in interviews after the war; he was adamant that the comment, which was off the cuff, was meant to express his dismissal of Stephane Clement making threats that he was clearly in no position to make or back up. In such a reading of the infamous "German Insult," perhaps even Leopold III was one of Furstenburg's "whales;" a King who, for most of his life, had clearly given little shrift to what the worst of his sons thought or said.

    To but it mildly, however, that was not how most people understood the comment, in Germany or elsewhere, especially Belgium. There, the comment was taken much more darkly - that Germany haughtily could have cared less what little Belgium thought, and that perhaps Brussels should learn its place. In the tense context of Belgium accusing Germany's commander-in-chief in Africa of carrying out raids into the Free State from behind the disputed boundaries of Katanga, it was understood to the Delacroix government in Brussels as well as the Belgian royal family to augur a future in which Germany frequently bullied Brussels in Africa, relying on its considerably larger population, economy and military to bring the "trout" to heel if it did not bow to the "whale," taking advantage of Belgium's treaty-bound neutrality to do so. While other European governments saw what Furstenburg saw as irresponsibly flippant, the Belgians saw something else - a promise of not just disrespect but escalation, all born from a glib remark made offhandedly to a gaggle of journalists..."

    - Heinrich: The Life and Legacy of Germany's Goldkaiser

    "...Poincaré himself did not charge Paleologue with pursuing rapprochement with Belgium, but neither did he discourage the Quai d'Orsay from accepting such if initiated elsewhere. The simple reality of the Second Congo Crisis of 1918 was that it was becoming increasingly clear to Paleologue and his ardently Germanophobic analysts and career civil servants who drove much of French policy that something was coming to a head in Africa. Belgium's position in the Congo had never been weaker, and its debt more unsustainable; the precedent of Britain and Germany divvying up Portugal's state holdings between themselves under the parameters of Malcolm-Jagow suggested an even easier French path to calling its considerable loans to Leopold III's personal holdings in the Congo. The near-collapse of the Free State in March had proved this; it was seen as increasingly inevitable in many corners in Paris that more was to come. The dispute thus became whether or not France would simply absorb the Congo for itself or support Belgium, and here there were a number of various viewpoints, the least belligerent of which were quickly silenced.

    Poincaré's preference was to simply absorb the Belgian Congo before Germany could, but he was persuaded by the "Belgian Camp" and their line of thinking that a confrontation with Germany over central Africa was now inevitable; the raids of June 1918 suggested a future in which Germany would increasingly use Angola and Katanga as a base of operations to provoke and press against the Free State until it was stopped, perhaps with violence. Paleologue argued, quite credibly, that the end of Leopold III's personal control of the Free State was nigh; and due to the massive debt Leopold had accrued to French banks, France would have a choice in how this endgame played out. The instability of Belgian domestic politics over the previous several years, starting with the general strike of 1915 and recently proven with the disastrous spring elections just months earlier, suggested that France could not "rely" upon what Brussels might decide, and that Paris may instead have to "decide on their behalf."

    This belligerent, self-important foreign policy to step into the brink on Belgium's behalf was not just a matter of Africa, of course. The Emperor's cousin and heir, Victor, was married to a Belgian princess; the Emperor's sister, Marie-Eugenie, was married to Leopold III's cousin, Baudouin, and had borne him six children, including three sons who had all survived infancy. The ties between royal houses in Paris and Brussels were thus much deeper than merely affinity and finance. It was also the case that the French press was virulently Germanophobic and took pride in its ability to agitate the French street over foreign policy matters, often as much of a mouthpiece for the Tuileries as a leading indicator, and in the summer of 1918 it did this with gusto. The Piquet Affair had already suggested a Germany intervening directly in the affairs of Belgium through Flamenpolitik, and it was easy to talk oneself backwards from this dubious conclusion into seeing the Congo Crisis as an extension of this expansionary and saber-rattling foreign policy; for Poincaré in particular, there was a curious symmetry between the accusations inherent in the Piquet Affair and the spiraling crises in Austria, similarly coming to a head in the crucial month of June 1918, and it all seemed to add up to one conclusion:

    Germany had arrived at a point where she was confident in her grandest European and colonial schemes, and was making preparations to provoke a final settling conflict to achieve them. It was not just in France's interest to stand in her way - it was France's holy obligation to the world..."

    - La Politique Mondiale: Poincaré, France and the Waltz of the Great Powers
     
    Second Congo Crisis (Part II)
  • "...of his three sons - Jean Albert's homosexuality of course kept him several arms' lengths from affairs of state - it was always said that Leopold III and Stephane Clement butted heads so often because they were so alike. Crown Prince Leopold, the Duke of Brabant, of course had inherited his father's ultra-reactionary politics and contempt for democracy, which he displayed perhaps more than anybody else; Philippe was the cleverest of the bunch, with the same calculating mind that had kept his father alive and on the throne for three decades, but his penchant for drink and morphine and reputation for telling people what they wanted to hear diminished his considerable logical and intellectual talents. But it was Stephane Clement who was most like the King, who had the same volatile temperament, the same lust for pleasures of the flesh, and the same paranoia and impression that death was around every corner, and it was that erraticism that Stephane Clement indulged at the most crucial hour of Belgian history since 1830.

    For eighty-eight years, Belgian independence had been underwritten by a concordat of the Great Powers; it had been carved free of the House of Orange by Britain, France and Prussia with Austrian and Russian acceptance, and at both the London Conference of 1830 and the signing of the Treaty of London in 1839, the liberty of Belgium had been agreed upon by the Great Powers and the Netherlands herself on condition of Belgian neutrality in the affairs of Europe. This set of circumstances had, for nine decades, suited Belgium just fine; it was through her benevolent neutrality that she had been allowed so much of the Congo, a vastness that Britain and France would have never allowed new Germany or Italy retain in the heart of Africa. And it was Belgian intermediation that had helped resolve a number of European disputes in those years since.

    To traditional Belgian thinking - including Leopold III, who despite his Francophilia was astute enough to understand how the terms of 1830 and 1839 benefitted rather than held back his country - there was nothing more sacrosanct than the Treaty of London. It was Belgium's geopolitical Magna Carta, more important as a founding document than a constitution. It was what made sure that Belgium was not partitioned by nationalists in France and Holland, or what prevented it and its critical port at Antwerp from falling under the domination of an ambitious Germany. So long as little, neutral and well-armed Belgium sat astride the most obvious path of invasion from Germany into France, it was the lock that kept the monsters of war within its cage.

    This was of course naive; Prussia had, after all, invaded France via Lorraine and Luxemburg in 1867. But it was a straightforward strategic calculation that had nonetheless served Belgium well for nearly a century and had helped deliver a small, ethnically divided country the second-highest GDP per capita in Europe behind only Britain and one of its most densely industrialized economies, with a financial system and colonial empire that far punched outside of its weight. How much this relative success for little Belgium weighed on the decisions that Leopold III was about to countenance is unclear, but at that critical hour in July 1918, the Treaty of London suddenly seemed to be just a piece of paper.

    It is hard not to read a number of intersection factors into Leopold III's decision-making between July 6, when he gathered his sons at Laeken, and July 9, when he gave the go-ahead to the Delacroix government to sign a secret military alliance with France and begin a process of attempting to goad Germany into war to trigger its defensive clauses. There was the instability of 1915 which had nearly brought the country to civil conflict and which augured a future of syndicalist agitation and Flemish nationalism; there was a government that had nearly stripped him of his precious Congo and a Germany that he was convinced, now that it controlled the entirety of the Congo's southern frontier, sought to press north and seize as much of it as they could. And there was also the very fact that this embattled, bitter man was nearly sixty years of age, increasingly aware of his mortality, and seeing more enemies around every corner than ever.

    Stephane Clement had already made one of his three major contributions to pushing Europe closer to war in L'affaire Piquet; now he would make his second, in coolly persuading his father that Germany sought to destroy Belgium, seize the Congo for itself, and puppetize a Kingdom of Flanders that would inevitably have a German prince crowned atop it. "Does exile in Biarritz suit you?" he asked pointedly. If Belgium survived such a conflagration it would be as a rump state, likely with the pliant and Anglophile Baudouin - whom the King had suspected, without evidence, of plotting against him for decades. Only in pressing the case first, with French support, could Belgium head off Berlin's "unquenchable appetite for land, resources, and vassals." Philippe was aghast at this suggestion, reminding his father that an outright alliance with France would abrogate Article VII of the Treaty of London, thus foreclosing on any British support in the event of a war with Germany and thus putting France in violation of the legally-binding treaty; this alone was a cassus bellum that would likely involve an immediate violent German response.

    The King clearly found Stephane Clement's emotionally-charged argument that bordered on outright manipulation compelling, but his son's plain logic was hard to argue with, and Leopold III had always been more cautious in foreign matters than his aggressiveness with domestic enemies. Thus it fell to the Duke of Brabant to make his own case. The Crown Prince, who chose his words carefully around his family and hated his younger brothers and had plotted more than once to see to it that they befell accidents, replied that Philippe's point was hard to argue, but that Belgium clearly was in "the hour of the choice." What he meant by that word was that Brussels faced a binary problem; they could either back down in the face of a clear German provocation in Africa and invite future escalations while also opening "unwieldy" Austria to similar, or they could stand fast in the face of German aggression and refuse to back down, even if it meant general war. "The choice" was either prideful or practical; there was no way to do both. The Duke of Brabant's suggestion, however, was to do everything in Brussels' power to make its machinations secret; it would sign military clauses with the French "at the dead of midnight, in the most hidden tower" - Prince Leopold was fond of flowery language when he got going - and invite explicit French support designed to be portrayed as a defense of Belgian neutrality. This was a high-wire game, but one that the King was confident he could play, having played such games his entire life. The plan was given his support; Belgium would abandon neutrality in 1918, fully embrace its connections to France, and thus underwrite its security permanently, but secretly.

    Stephane Clement's belligerency and smooth-talking of his father at the moment the King felt most vulnerable, most besieged, had worked; it was only downhill from there..."

    - The Black Prince of Belgium: The Dark and Turbulent Life of Stephane Clement

    "...mediocrity of German spycraft with the exception of lessons in signals intelligence learned by the Colonial Office in Aruba, lessons which had still not been entirely incorporated into military doctrine (the Abwehr would not be formally made a division of the Prussian Army until spring 1920). The events of July 18, 1918 were thus much more luck than skill, and the type of comedy of errors that history turns upon.

    The decision at the height of the "July Crisis" - where Europe waited with baited breathe to see if Germany and Belgium would come to blows over their dispute in the Congo, and France made loud, angry noises that she would defend Belgian neutrality with "her own blood and arms" - by King Leopold III to throw his lot in with the Iron Triangle and form a formal, but secret, military alliance with France and Austria was the decision in which lay the Central European War. All choices that came thereafter, all the maneuvers that eventually ended in bloodshed when the armies of Europe mobilized in March 1919, stemmed from that one critical decision by one man. The secrecy which this decision required, however, was crucial; for Belgium to prevail, any provocation by France had to be seen as being done to defend Belgium's direct neutrality and protect the terms of the Treaty of London, and portray a belligerent Germany as tearing apart the treaties that protected European peace.

    That Heinz Lutzenfelder, a middle-aged German civil servant who worked at the embassy in Brussels and also doubled as a spy for the Prussian Foreign Office, was at Brussels-South (Midi) station on July 18 was an accident; he had the next day off and first meant to meet a former colleague for lunch, and he was unceremoniously stood up. As such, he found himself at the station, debating whether to make a spur-of-the-moment trip to Paris instead for a long weekend and looking at the timetable before buying a ticket for later in the evening. That Stephane Clement and Philippe were both heading out of Brussels-South the same day was also an accident; the younger brother was already to have left for Paris days earlier, and had simply been delayed. That both younger sons of the Belgian King were at the station, without an entourage, and dressed as civilians led Lutzenfelder, who saw them purely by accident, to deduce that they were there in disguise; considering the tensions engulfing Belgo-German relations at the time, he was immediately intrigued, and followed them at a distance. They both seemed to make their way towards a train for Paris, until at the last moment Stephane Clement stopped to double-check his ticket with a station porter, who confirmed that he was booked through to Nancy and then Geneva and on to Zurich and Vienna on his itinerary.

    Why Stephane Clement was taking that circuitous of a route to Vienna raised Lutzenfelder's concerns even more (to say nothing of his stupidity in booking all of it on one ticket rather than several, and talking loudly about it so that a German spy could overhear); he immediately returned to the embassy, packed his bags, and went this time to Brussels-North, to catch the train to Liege and then Aachen, where he met up with two frontier guards whom he was expecting after sending a coded message to Berlin. Once back in Germany, Lutzenfelder was whisked by train to the nearest Army camp, where he described what he had seen and postulated a theory - that Leopold was secretly sending his sons to Paris and Vienna to seal an agreement with France and Austria to align fully with them, militarily.

    In Berlin, Chancellor Furstenburg called a small council of close advisors before discussing this with the Kaiser. The evidence was compelling, but circumstantial, a position that Heinrich agreed with; a war with Belgium could not be started over the observations of one man at a train station. Nonetheless, it did help explain Belgium's confidence in the past several weeks and France's willingness to back them to the hilt; as of July 1918, Germany's plans in both military preparations and foreign policy assumed Belgium was a future combatant and that they had already broken their neutrality, they just chose - to Belgium's surprise - to keep that information to themselves until the moment was ripe.

    Perhaps, then, Germany's poor reputation in subterfuge was unfair..."

    - Shadow Wars: A History of Espionage and Counterintelligence
     
    States at Play: The Geopolitics of Sport
  • "...Gustaf V Adolf's hope to host a games that were distinctively Scandinavian in character - practical, frugal, and modest. His Olympic Stadium was carefully designed to be useful, especially for equestrian games, long after the 1918 Olympics were over, and it was positioned to be close to other venues, built in the north of Ostermalm for its proximity to Rasunda Stadium in particular, where football, rugby and other competitive team sports were to be played. Other venues were built of wood and designed to be dismantled at the conclusion of the Games much like exhibitions at World's Fairs, and for the first time, temporary housing was to be provided to athletes in small cottages throughout the Stockholm area near the venues for their events. The kind of bloated budgets that had marred London '10 or the absurd nationalist pomp of the German Empire's 1914 Games in Berlin were notably missing from Stockholm; the Games turned a small profit, the Swedes - a people not typically known for their warmth or outgoing, welcoming nature - were praised in European papers for their capable hosting, and much was made of the return of various American countries to the Games, with the notable exception of the war-devastated Confederate States. The Stockholm Olympics were, by all accounts, a tremendous success for Sweden.

    This may be in part a rose-tinted memory of a pre-Central European War Europe, however, a calm before the brewing storm; July 1918 was less than nine months from when the guns erupted and the bloodshed began. The paeans to peace and global prosperity of Berlin 1914 were notably missing, replaced instead with people reading as much about the latest war of words between France and Germany over Belgium's grievous accusations of meddling both in Flanders and in the Congo as they were reading about the feats of athletes; Britain won the medal count, and it went largely unnoticed even in London as eyes looked nervously towards the dark clouds over the Continent.

    If Stockholm's 1918 Summer Games were some halcyon moment before it all went to hell, they certainly weren't viewed that way by attendees or enthusiasts of the now-well established Olympic spirit, where instead there was a growing and foreboding sense at the peak of the "War in Sight" crisis that summer that even if something was not about to happen imminently, it was about to happen..."

    - States at Play: The Geopolitics of Sport
     
    Ferdinand: The Last Emperor
  • "...increasing inability to maintain the rule of decree; Ferdinand angrily urged von Sturgkh to revoke his plans to hold elections in June of 1918 after the Second Congo Crisis erupted, fearing that Austria may have to mobilize to fight Germany on short notice; when the "War in Sight" Crisis passed without shots fired, Ferdinand nonetheless had elections in Cisleithnia postponed again, this time indefinitely, past September all the way into January of the following year.

    Part of the reason was the increasingly sophisticated organization of groups such as the Young Czechs, led by Karel Kramar, or the even more radical Czech Progressives, under the leadership of the aging Tomas Masaryk and his young protege, Edvard Benes. Ferdinand was entirely convinced that if he allowed voters in Bohemia to head to the polls, they - along with Slovenes in Carniola - would vote in decisively nationalist and increasingly neo-Slavist parties. In theory, this was not something he was opposed to - a "third crown" had been an idea bandied about for years as a way to reduce Magyar power and make the Slavs the third leg of a "Triple Monarchy" - but the deteriorating political situation in Hungary, especially after the near-death of Karolyi in Zurich, made the pursuit of greater Slavic nationalism within the Habsburg Empire an impossibility.

    This was met with fierce anger in Prague and other cities of Cisleithnia, where it was becoming increasingly clear that the Empire envisioned by Ferdinand was not the semi-pluralist if conservative polity of Franz Josef but rather a centralized entity with all power flowing increasingly from the Hofburg and a small coterie of advisors and, perhaps, sycophants. A crisis loomed, either internally or internationally, and the arrival of Prince Stephane Clement of Belgium to Vienna and his numerous ideas for how to pursue an aggressive, maximalist foreign policy seemed suddenly increasingly attractive to a beleaguered Ferdinand who saw a unifying war as a potential solution to his crisis of disunity..."

    - Ferdinand: The Last Emperor
     
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    Republic Reborn
  • "...portrayal in many Yankee newspapers, particularly ones sympathetic to Liberals, as a "total surrender" - Henry Cabot Lodge, the grand champion of antislavery causes both before and after the war, was particularly pilloried, most viciously in his home state of Massachusetts, where the abolitionist, Negro-owned and edited Boston Lantern periodical savaged him as "a supine coward, a liar who spoke out of both ends of his mouth on the criticality of the noble cause of the eradication of slave economy, who fooled us all when he cited it time and time again as the most important moral crusade of our time."

    Though Lodge only had himself to blame for appearing to make a remarkable volte face on the question of never conceding an inch on the question of slavery, the decision by Root to demand Lodge extend recognition to the Republic of Texas was born instead out of pragmatism rather than righteousness or surrender. Root was firmly in the abolitionist camp and supported the continued line in the sand of giving no compromise to what little national government the Confederacy had left until its amendment for total and permanent emancipation was passed, but he had never been identified as one of the movement's key figures, and the circumstances of spring and summer 1916 had proven to him that Texas, its Republican leadership in particular, was not Vardamanite Dixie. Texas was not an ally but it was also not an enemy; there was no serious discussion of prolonging Yankee occupation of border towns in Texas, in particular Wichita Falls, and there was zero appetite of pushing deeper into the Second Republic to occupy Dallas again or other major cities again. Formal recognition that with it explicitly outlined that there was no state of war was no carrot to give, and changed no facts on the ground, and for a Root administration that was increasingly about as popular as leprosy, anything to continue moving to a point where they could credibly say that the postwar settlements were consolidating was a win.

    It was also the case that slavery in Texas had collapsed almost as much as elsewhere in Dixie; as many as eighty percent of the prewar state's enslaved population had either been freed by Yankee soldiers or their masters, been evacuated to the Confederacy as order collapsed, or simply fled their bondage to freedmen's colonies across Texas' vastness or into the United States, with a notable population of free Texas-born Negroes having consolidated in Albuquerque, New Mexico and a smaller, similar community in the south of Denver. The state that already had the highest proportion of free people of color in the Confederacy behind only Louisiana was not some slaveholding holdout, and especially with the Law of Free Birth passed in 1917 to mollify the United States, more had been done proactively in Austin than in any Confederate capital that was not done under armed duress.

    As such, on May 10, 1918, the United States formally recognized the Republic of Texas as a sovereign state, via a Congressional vote rather than a simple exchange of ministers and diplomatic formalities. The vote was narrower than Root would have hoped for on such a perfunctory move, but it nonetheless suggested even a friendly United States Congress that was exhausted by maximalist goals from men like Lodge. Countries like Argentina and Peru followed the American lead shortly thereafter, and last European holdouts like Italy or Spain did as well.

    For President Gore, this was the endgame he had sought since inauguration day in December 1916 - Yankee recognition considerably reduced the threat of Loyalist Texan organizing in New Orleans against the Republic, because he was confident that the United States would intervene militarily in the event of the Confederacy attempting to re-absorb Texas by force. Flags flew, the revised "Yellow Rose of Texas" was sung and played, and barbecues were held - the greatest impediment to Texan sovereignty had been seen off, and the continued consolidation of the Republic beckoned..."

    - Republic Reborn
     
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