I've had about a week since I finished the Timeline, and have been thinking about and digesting it as I go around my work. I'm going to try and organise my thoughts here, but anything this size will inevitably be a little scatterbrained, so its hard to say how useful or easy to answer this will be. I'll be organising this by first going through and giving my thoughts on the various members of the Empire (The #1 Great Power at this point in world history) starting in the North Atlantic and heading East. Then, I'll poke outside of the empire to look at the other great powers, in order of what I believe their great power status is. Finally, I'll have a section dedicated to discussing what I think of the various concepts and thoughts I had which don't fit elsewhere.
As a warning, this is several thousand words long and is kind of a mess. There are questions sprinkled throughout, and answers would be nice, but please don't let my extremely over-enthusiastic essay distract you from either writing the actual timeline, or dealing with cluster migraines - which sound awful by the way - my best hopes that those end as soon as possible. Read at your own leisure, and in answer chunks if you want to.
THE EMPIRE
BRITAIN
Obviously this is going to be the country I have the most to say about, though I'll restrict this specific commentary to just the home isles. Over the last 40 years, parliament has been absolutely dominated by the Liberals and their allies, and only that brief moment in the Boer war allowed the Tories a chance in government. Even then, it was a short chance, seeing as they got turfed out soon afterwards, and it didn't even really seem like they did anything wrong. So, that's my first questions - why on earth are the Tories getting pummeled so fucking hard? You mentioned this as one of your mysteries of the timeline in a comment earlier, but I cannot for the life of me figure it out. Now I understand why its convenient plot-wise to have the Liberals dominate, so they can enact the kind of radical change necessary for the federation to work, but I know there has to be some underlying cause to all this. You don't have to give this one completely away, but at least give me a hint, come on its been killing me!
Interestingly, the more radical tilt of the liberal party seems to be hurting the emerging Labour some. I almost wonder if the Liberals are going to avoid being replaced like they were in OTL as Labour gobbled up the left flank of British politics. There's only one thing which gives me pause to that, and its that I can feel a growing crunch and backlash as blue collar industries begin to move out to India and the dominions. If people blame the Liberals for this, which they honestly probably should because... y'know, its their fault, then I could see this leading to the end of the Liberals as a dominant political force. As advocates for the working class, Labour are far better positioned to deal with this coming crisis. There's also the possibility that the Liberals moderate and shift to the right, muscling out the Tories to create a Labour-Liberal dichotomy like we have in Australia, though the party is so radical at this point I can hardly see it happening.
Devolution as a policy continues apace, though this is another one of those things where I'm not quite sure why the Liberals are so obsessed with it. So far as I know, there isn't really an equivalent historical movement, and the Libs only started pushing this around the late 1890s ITTL. Where did this come from? Why is it so popular? Is it even a good policy, as in is it helping Britons? Many such questions, need more clarification here please.
Bullying the lords until they shut up - very funny, hope the Liberals keep doing this, that austere chamber of government has no right to pull anything like what they have been for the past decades. I haven't read the last iteration of this story, but I've seen your comments and am very interested to see how you mutilate it to the ends of the federation. The sooner they shut up the better IMO.
IRELAND
It's been a long, uphill fight, but it seems like the Liberal's devolution policy has finally moderated the home rule sentiment to the point where they don't want to murder every English person who steps foot on the isle. It also just seems like some smarter, less boneheaded government policy has prevented Ireland from being so brutally raped by the empire for 40 years, which again, does good things for public perception. It took nearly 40 years, but you seem like you've actually butterflied most of the Irish independence movement and the almost a century of hatred and nastiness that sprouted from it, and that we're still dealing with today. Not really any big comments here, except to say well done, it was effectively executed.
Though I guess I should use this section to chime in about the Federalists... who the hell are these guys? Welsh parties, Irish parties, Scottish parties... seems like an awful lot of contradictions within the coalition. What are their policy views outside of just the obvious. A lot of the areas they come from aren't quite so progressive as London and the Liberal heartlands, so I'm curious as to their position on worker's rights, universal suffrage etc.
CANADA
Man, Wilfred Laurier, what the fuck was that about? The empire is a good deal for Canada, why did he want to go and fuck it up? Who was he trying to appeal to, given how the Canadian sentiment with the US ain't exactly peachy right now? I mean, he got voted out, but still, jeezus. Interested how you've done a similar thing in Quebec to what you've done in Ireland, moderating another sore spot for the empire by bringing in all those French Jews. Also interested in those 4 new Canadian provinces. As I understand it, they've basically made a 2x2 grid configuration instead of a 3x1 bookshelf? Wouldn't the northern two provinces be much weaker and less populated than the ones on the US Border? I'm not sure how the extra immigration has impacted the prairies ITTL.
Also, how goes the Canadian battleplan for war with America? Is it still 'surrender and wait for Britain to blockade US ports' as per OTL? Or did their experience fighting with the Boers give them some ideas? If plans don't exist now, they're probably being drawn up sooner rather than later.
SOUTH AFRICA
Ah, yes, and now on to the place with those Boers. It seems like federation is on track to happen as per OTL. Look, I don't believe in calling certain races evil, but if I did, the Afrikaners would be near the top of that list. Just a uniquely awful lineage of leaders, soldiers and businessmen. I hope they find their better angels somewhere around here, but I'm not holding out hope. Whatever form the imperial federation takes, I hope it has enough power to kick South Africa when it gets into its segregation teenage years.
Is Gandhi around? He should be, if he's still down there.
INDIA
The amount of deaths you've butterflied here through just basic famine relief programs is much appreciated. The truly awful way this country was treated OTL is such to the extent I'm shocked independence didn't come sooner, maybe with a bloody resistance movement attached. However, the elevation of the INC over the INA seems to have done a lot to cool tensions across the subcontinent. Obviously recent actions surrounding the Princes and their harsh (but ultimately necessary) removal have raised hackles somewhat, but the power of the maharajas is melting away fast, faster than probably most of them realise. The devolutionary policy is interesting, and I'm still holding out to see if it'll work. I get the intent, but given my lack of knowledge on Indian geography, I'm gonna wait until I see a map to pass judgement on whether its stable in the long term or not.
I am slightly concerned over the increasing industrialisation. Of course, in a historical sense, this is a good thing since it diversifies the economy and creates upward social and economic mobility. However, I can't imagine conditions in those factories are nice, and similar to what happened in Britain and America, I can see standards of living falling in the short term as rural farming lifestyles are replaced with industrial urban slums. Can they form Unions in India yet? Please say yes.
Unfortunately, just as I suspect that the devolution will make progress smoother for India, its also going to make it much more patchwork. Some places will have progressive princes, some will have conservative, some will have bloodthirsty British governor-generals imported from London who will act as mini-Leopolds until they're removed. And as the central government weakens, there are just fewer tools to enforce standardisation. Best wishes to the people here and all across the British colonies in South Asia.
AUSTRALIA + NEW ZEALAND
Home sweet home. As of course many people in the thread would be, I'm an imperial citizen myself in this timeline, based out of one of her largest and driest possessions. Annoyed that we're still forging onwards with the White Australia stuff, but placated that the Empire seems to at least be prodding at Australia to knock it off. It's 1909, so we're due here for the formation of the (first) Liberal Party pretty soon when the Protectionists and Free Traders get hitched together, and end the (admittedly funny) period where we just got hung parliaments every single bloody election. Are we still going on with this stupid project of a capital city equidistant between Melbourne and Sydney? Or since we all know an Imperial federation is coming, do we see it as unnecessary? Please. I've been to Canberra. That place never should have been built.
New Zealand seems close to OTL. The little railway industry they've got going is fun. Sorry, I don't know all that much about NZ, but they're our best friends, so I'm still concerned for their wellbeing.
Also, could I get some population estimates for the two ANZAC states? Canada seems to be doing a lot better, how are we doing down here? It might be a longer journey, but surely some imperial investment has made it more appealing. Plus, we don't freeze over every 12 months.
CHILE
Chile!? What are you doing in here, this is the empire section! I kid, but yeah, that relationship that Chile is starting to cultivate within the empire is really fascinating. Two questions relating to Chile. First, why are the Chilean leadership pursuing such especially close relations with the empire? We've gotten a lot of the British perspective so far, but the Chileans have been surprisingly proactive in bringing themselves into the fold so far.
Second, is the empire going to be pursuing any more of these client-state/ earned-membership relationships with other countries. Chile could make itself the model for countries who want to join the empire of their own volition. A few candidates to my mind include Siam, Liberia and maybe Portugal? Obviously the Chilean situation is very unique, and so I don't know if these relationships could even be formed with other countries, but its still an interesting thought. The Federation has room to grow yet.
The Great Powers
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
The good old US of A isn't looking so fresh in this timeline. The lack of British Investment has clearly neutered some of the industrial development that took place in this period, and its starting to really show. I would still rate them as just barely the #2 world power right now, though it suffers from some of the same problems as the empire in not being able to concentrate power very effectively. The direct colonisation approach they're taking to Cuba and the Philippines is interesting, though also quite concerning. I don't quite understand the reasons behind it, but it seems like the US is slowly abandoning its mercantile trading system of colonial control to shift to more direct military repression. The presidential line of succession is still roughly in line with ours, besides that Blaine debacle, but I'm waiting for the point it goes just straight off the rails and we get President Eugene V. Debs in 1920. For now, we still have President Taft, which I couldn't be happier about. He's the biggest president! He busted more trusts than roosevelt! What's not to love about the presidential one who almost weighs a quarter ton? (Taft!)
Also, and I'll discuss this more in the Japan section, the two pacific powers seem to be drawing, ever-so-cautiously, closer to one another. You've articulated the reasons behind this in other posts, but its still a little jarring. I'll see how that plays out over time.
GERMAN EMPIRE
The Kaiser's kingdom seems to be doing well. It snatched a bit extra from the scramble for Africa, and has succeeded (though mostly by accident) in splintering the Anglo-French coalition. I'll save some of my thoughts on that for a Great War section further down, but I believe that this point in history sees Germany at the peak of its imperial power. Although it still sits at #3 because of its constrained influence outside of Europe, I believe it has the greatest ability to focus power. If there's a country that Germany wants destroyed, it can do it, almost without exception. The Naval race with the UK has stretched them a little, but against a French or Russian navy, they will have unmatched dominance of the seas.
And yet, trouble brews for Germany. If things are anything like OTL, the socialists have taken a strong hold in the Reichstag, and won't exactly be happy with the Kaiser clamoring for war. And Wilhelm is not a strong man, despite his lineage. Though they have incredible strength, I also see great danger for the Germans in pushing their limits. A union-organised general strike may be more effective at grinding Germany to a halt than any other nation in the world.
RUSSIA
The bear is wounded. Though they've seemingly gained more in China than OTL, they're also dealing with a furious internal socialist movement, two revanchist, militarist powers on either flank, and a completely incompetent Tsar who doesn't seem to realise he's writing his own death warrant. Their sheer scale, and capture of Manchuria still has them at #4 Great Power for me, but their position seems extremely precarious.
The railroad to Narvik, as others have emphasised, is huge. But it alone will not save the Empire.
To talk about Nicki for a second, I've seen someone in this thread who was rooting for him for some reason. WHY? He was terrible! As a leader, and even just in his personal life. The Russian people deserve much better, and if they're gonna earn it through fire and blood, so be it. Nicki completely deserved what he got in OTL, and honestly doesn't seem like he's doing anything to prevent that fate here. Even with 40 years of divergence, you cannot break the inevitability of the USSR. Come 1919, the Romanovs will no longer be in power in Russia, one way or another. They don't seem to have any interest in liberal democracy, or even constitutional monarchy, so I see only one way this is gonna go.
As a personal request though, when that bloody day comes, even if you don't save Nicki, save some of his kids. They were cute and didn't do anything wrong. Set them up with a nice streetcar suburban house in London and leave Russia to rebuild itself without them.
THIRD FRENCH EMPIRE
Have to admit, I did not see the end of the third Republic coming. Those Boulangists really know how to Boulange. I do like the little power boost you've given France ITTL, almost entirely thanks to L'empereur, who is cool, and yes, I do like him. I was almost gonna place them at #4 before that fucking idiot tore apart relations with Britain and dragged the entire country down into fifth place among the powers. All for some land in Cambodia.
Now, I will admit, in a total War with the second Reich, I do not see France lasting long, despite your assurances otherwise. Manpower, material and munitions all point towards a successful Schlieffen plan and the third empire dying just like the second, in a hail of German artillery. But, you've done a decent amount to even the playing field, and France may just hold out til 1915 or 1916, enough to allow foreign support to arrive. And even if France does collapse, from within or without, I'm sure L'empereur has an out plan. I hear Algiers is nice this time of century.
Lastly, Boulangism, what is it? I've seen you describe it as similar to Fascism, which it is, sort of, but Fascism emerged in OTL from the specific conditions and horrors of trench warfare erupting across Europe. The social base is primarily young, former veterans, angry at the system and the socialists who stabbed them in the back. Entering The Great War with a pre-existing Fascism is interesting, and I'm not quite sure yet what the effects will be. Supercharged? Exposed as farce? Hard to tell.
JAPAN
Japan is riding high, just having kicked Russia right in the nose and gotten away with it, they've somehow managed to avoid pissing of the US and Britain and ingratiated themselves into a sort of extra-European Great Power club with the US and Britain. We can already kind of sketch out the contours of the pacific alliance, but that doesn't mean Japan won't pursue her interests. Even if the Philippines are out-of-bounds, French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies are still fat, resource-rich targets for Japan to take. And something tells me France and the Netherlands are gonna have their hands full elsewhere pretty soon.
I am interested in Japan's internal politics though. This period saw the glimmer of something like a Western democracy in Japan, as the Meijis started to liberalise the country. We haven't seen much of that yet, but I don't know... I'm still holding out hope.
XIANFA / SOUTHERN QING
Yeah, okay, maybe they're just a British client state right now, but give them time. The Guanxu emperor (Zaiteng I suppose now) and his cabinet have implemented a number of policies which have very long yield returns. If given time, this new Southern China is going to overtake their Northern neighbour, and their professionalised military, democratic elections and educated workforce are going to mean greater success in the long run. Also, love that Sun-Yat-Sen is in cabinet, if not in leadership. I love that man, and even if the rest of the cabinet didn't already know what they were doing, he should keep them on track. I know he's a republican, but I hope him and Zaiteng get along.
BRAZILLIAN EMPIRE
The Empire goes on into the 20th century, despite some shaky foundations. This is another country, that, if given time can really rise to be a powerful player not only in South America, but the world. Issues of geography mean they're always going to be behind their North American cousins, but they could put up a serious counter-balance, if supported with Imperial guns.
GREAT ZHENG / NORTHERN QING
I had initially written this country off as essentially Yuan Shikai's personal fiefdom, propped up with German money and Japanese guns. They're more regressive, less educated, still clinging on to the old ways of feudal China. Or so I thought.
Then Emperor Zheng goes and appoints a bunch of anarchists and radicals into positions of leadership!? What the fuck is he doing. Does he realise how far behind the Zheng are going to be? Is he counterbalancing the reforms of the South by bringing in his own, er, 'reformists'? I still think the ultimate fate of this country is to be gobbled up by a revanchist Xianfa, but in the mean time, this is going to be the wackiest, funniest, most, dare I say it, "based" country in this timeline. Emperor Zheng is just throwing ideologies at a wall to see what sticks, except the wall is all of Northern China.
While all these morons in the Empire and Europe are playing the game of Realist international relations, Zheng is playing with Constructivism, Esoteric theories, stuff that shouldn't be invented for another 30 years. Will the Great Zheng endure? Probably not, they shouldn't. Do I hope they do? Absolutely!
OTTOMANS
Oh those young Turks. Never doubt their ability to create an ethnic cleansing. The sick man of Europe looks very, very sick right now. But, I still see a way out. If they can just keep the fuck out of whatever Great War is coming and do not under any circumstances piss of the British or the Russians, they could be able to make it out alive. They could still be carved up... but it hasn't happened yet.
DENMARK / NORWAY / NORDIC UNION?
The relationship between those two countries in the far North is interesting to me. Even if they'll easily get bowled over if Britain or Germany takes intense notice, they could still play a valuable part when added as a group to one of the major power blocs. And the invitation offered to Sweden tells me this might be a more expansive project than just Denmark and Norway. Also, the fact that their politics is being discussed at all means it will matter in the future. Discussed more in my "Extra countries" section.
PORTUGAL
It started getting mentioned a few chapters ago so I thought I should place it here. They seem to be slowly dragging their way out of their most tumultuous period, and could be able to skirt their way out of the coming Great War. I'm not really sure what your plan is for Portugal yet, or why they're being mentioned, but as with all things, I shall see.
SERBIA
They're so dead. Oh my god they're so instantly dead. Will Yugoslavia exist in this timeline? Big Yugoslavia? Is that what we're setting up for, because I have no idea why else you'd be talking about the Serbian monarchy as often as you seem to.
MISCELLANEOUS
THE UNMENTIONED COUNTRIES
There were a few notable exceptions from the above list of great powers. Italy, Austria-Hungary, Spain, The Netherlands. The reason I didn't dedicate a section to them is because any report on their internal politics recently has been conspicuously absent. I have a theory as to why these countries don't really matter, and its the same reason it doesn't really matter what's in a house before it gets obliterated by a meteor strike.
The Netherlands and Belgium specifically have received almost no mentions, because, I believe, the Benelux is about to flattened by the German military and have its governmental structures wiped clean. Spain looks to be headed towards a revolution, Austria-Hungary looks fit to burst into a million micro-ethno-states. These countries are not mentioned because it simply doesn't matter what happens to them in the short term. An absence of updates speaks doom. The only exception to this rule is Italy, but I'm honestly not sure why you've been neglecting to mention them. Maybe they get a revolution too? I'm not sure.
THE GREAT WAR
It's coming. It's been looming over the timeline forever, but the inevitability of a conflict like this was well set in stone since the 1870s. Arguably ever since 1815 with the creation of the concert of Europe. Metternich's paradise would always have to end at some point, and if your hints are any indication, what's coming might be even worse than OTL. If the sides are what they are in OTL 1914 minus Britain (Franco-Russian Entente vs Germany and Austria) I still believe Germany has the ability to neuter France and then cripple the bear, even while Austria flounders. Once you start dragging in the US, the Ottomans, Italy, even the Empire, if that's what it takes, the odds become more uncertain.
One thing I do know is that when the smoke clears, and the fire and blood and mustard gas melt away, Europe will be in ruins. Maybe for a generation, maybe two. It will hardly matter who 'wins', because the whole continent will be rubble, and the victor will only have the cold comfort of reparations from a country even more destroyed than their own. After the end of the war, revolution will come. Boulangists from the right and Communists and Socialists from the left. The old regimes of Europe will burn, one by one as new radical elements take power and enact revenge on those who forced them into the trenches.
Sorry, got a bit dramatic there, but I really think the Great War in this timeline represents total apocalypse, even more so than OTL. Your comments on chemical weapons use is a bit discomforting, as is your repeated mentioning of the 'thump it' strategy of war. If the Timeline is diverged now, I really think the world after the war may be entirely unrecognisable, depending on how it goes.
THE LEFT
Every so often during this TL, we've gotten little mentions of the Internationale, and more specifically, the Anarchists who are crawling throughout the Anglophone world. It seems they've finally given up on that awful 'propaganda of the deed' stuff and started pursuing a more sensible anarcho-syndicalism. I don't know if it will come to anything yet, but a world Syndicalist federation, replacing the Imperial federation, should it come to pass, would be awesome. I'm still keeping an eye on those black internationalists.
They don't really have much room to maneuver right now given how progressive and pro-worker the Liberals have been, but as caution and conservatism returns to Britain, the anarchists may yet find their opening again. Good luck Anarchists! I'm rooting for you. Even if I kind of like the Imperial federation, I do still think this whole 19th century world is awful so, please, burn at your own leisure.
Of course we still don't have any remotely socialist countries yet, although as I just mentioned I think that'll change soon. Russia seems most poised to fall first, but Germany and Spain seem right behind. All continental, and all classic marxists. Serbia as well. Hungary? There were a lot of short-lived socialist revolutions in the waning days of the 1910s, we'll see which ones endure here. France is the only one I hesitate on, because of those fucking Boulangists, but even they could be toppled by a strong enough wave of working class fury.
Imperial Britain and the Pacific Alliance seems safe for now, but who knows. The revolution may strike at any time, comrade!
AIRSHIPS, ZEBRAS AND OTHER QUIRKY EPHEMERA
I'm still waiting for some of the really funky steampunk things to kick in yet. I only hope that the UK establishes an all-imperial airship line at some point. The All-Blue line? Blue for the sky? 72 hours, Sydney to London in a zeppelin, sounds wonderful. And an airship departure board. Oh, I want an airship departure board.
The Zebras. What's up with the Zebras? Why haven't we been updated on the Zebras recently? Are people riding the Zebras? Tell us about the Zebras.
The Gyrodynes. I was promised Gyrodynes. Where are the Gyrodynes? I do not see them.
THANK YOU
Lastly, just please take my deep thanks and appreciation for writing this timeline. This has dragged into... oh my god 4.5 thousand words now. I need to learn how to edit my thoughts. Take this entirely overly long rant/ letter as an expression of my deep, slightly obsessive, enthusiasm for your work. It's been rolling around in my brain for months now and I needed to get out my feelings about it somewhere. I don't think I'm going to comment on this scale in the future, but I'll always be ready to watch the continued development of the timeline. Consider this a review/revision on everything up to 1909. Once again thank you so so so much, and I hope this wasn't too autistic.
This took real life hours to write. On a Monday night. God I need sleep.
