Which world war did Germany have a better chance of winning?

Which world war did Germany have a better chance of winning

  • World War 1

    Votes: 506 95.3%
  • Wolrd War 2

    Votes: 25 4.7%

  • Total voters
    531
  • Poll closed .

Are you trying to tell me that in all of those books that it was the British who forced a peace upon the US and that France was too exhausted to continue anyways.. and that Wilson never threatened both of them with a seperate peace if they did not agree to open negotiations by dropping what he considered to be unnacceptable demands?
As opposed to extrapolating the state of French Military who finally had 'the boche' on the run for the first time in 4 years of hell and the British who were also 'enjoying' [my word] the first true advance since they joined the war?
 
The big problem was that the US wasn't accepting foreign currency any longer for goods purchased...

Without loans, which were providing the only source of Dollars available to the Entente,


Oh, and we are forgetting that Wilson was planning on confronting the British about their blockade of the Central Powers. Right in mid-1917 the US was going to start escorting ships into German and AH harbors and challenge the British government. .

Several points:-
1)US goods could ONLY be bought in USD before, during and after the war. Which is why the fiorst loans were made.. because there was a shortage of USD outside of the US.. not because of a shortage of cash.
2)Loans were/are not the only method of obtaining USD, the US did not cease to trade with either the French of British Empires or anyone else who didn't use the USD as their currency (which is about 90% of the globe) - the USD is NOT the reserve currency of the world in this time frame (gold was if anything could be classed as such).
3) right, April 1917 US declares war.. and in mid 1917 they are going to push escorted convoys into Germany. (literal reading of your post).
 

Deleted member 1487

2)Loans were/are not the only method of obtaining USD, the US did not cease to trade with either the French of British Empires or anyone else who didn't use the USD as their currency (which is about 90% of the globe) - the USD is NOT the reserve currency of the world in this time frame (gold was if anything could be classed as such).
Of course. I brought that point up to illustrate that the US government was advising against banks converting pounds into dollars to prevent the British government printing money to accumulate a dollar reserve (obviously a short term tactic to put off the day of reckoning, not a long term strategy).

Still the Entente had mostly converted their economies to war and had little civilian trade to offer the US, other than purchasing US goods for use in Britain. Trade was mostly one way and even confiscating US dollars from civilians wasn't going garner significant stocks of currency to sustain a war.

3) right, April 1917 US declares war.. and in mid 1917 they are going to push escorted convoys into Germany. (literal reading of your post).
I'll have to check and see what Devlin wrote in his biography about Wilson during the lead up to US entry into the war, but it seems that his administration was considering using US fleet ships to at least escort US merchant ships into the North Sea. Of course this was as a last resort and diplomatic channels were to first be used to relate that a physical blockade was no longer going to be tolerated. It probably wouldn't have come to the USN actually being used...probably.
 
I'll have to check and see what Devlin wrote in his biography about Wilson during the lead up to US entry into the war, but it seems that his administration was considering using US fleet ships to at least escort US merchant ships into the North Sea. Of course this was as a last resort and diplomatic channels were to first be used to relate that a physical blockade was no longer going to be tolerated. It probably wouldn't have come to the USN actually being used...probably.


Escorting them into the North Sea is most unlikely, because it was sown thick with minefields to the point of being impossibly dangerous. Had US neutrality continued, and Anglo-US relations grown more strained, it is conceivable that US merchantmen might have been escorted to, say, Norway. Offhand, though, I hadn't heard of Wilson committing himself to such action.
 
Of course. I brought that point up to illustrate that the US government was advising against banks converting pounds into dollars to prevent the British government printing money to accumulate a dollar reserve (obviously a short term tactic to put off the day of reckoning, not a long term strategy).

Still the Entente had mostly converted their economies to war and had little civilian trade to offer the US, other than purchasing US goods for use in Britain. Trade was mostly one way and even confiscating US dollars from civilians wasn't going garner significant stocks of currency to sustain a war.

Printing cash - the UK Treasury (and Gov't) was dead set against this policy and any policy that threatened to weaken the USD/GBP exchange rate as with the medium term need to purchase huge volumes from the US it would have been totally counter productive.
Total war - the French had a worse state then the British for war conversion proportion principally due to the loss of so much of its original manufacturing capability, and the UK managed to export quite a significant amount during WW1 (unlike in ww2).
As I mentioned previously, the UK only USD trade was back into a surplus by 1917 - this includes war purchases in its own right. The total net borrowings by the UK from the US amounted to 10% of UK total war expenditure, so not overly high, certainly not effort crippling.
 

Deleted member 1487

As I mentioned previously, the UK only USD trade was back into a surplus by 1917 - this includes war purchases in its own right. The total net borrowings by the UK from the US amounted to 10% of UK total war expenditure, so not overly high, certainly not effort crippling.

What's your source for that? I'd like to learn more about the British financial situation.
http://www.amazon.com/Too-Proud-Fight-Woodrow-Neutrality/dp/0192158074
Devlin states that 40% of British purchasing in late 1916 was in the US, which had to be financed through US loans. Total borrowing from the US was $2 billion in 1916 value currency by 1917, which would be about 10% of borrowing, but that still doesn't mean that Britain wasn't tapped of its own resources and would have a hard time finding ways to continue what amounted in 1917 to 40% of her war materials (and much more of France's).
 
I'd say neither War. WW2 for obvious reason, and the 1st for the following:

1: Defeat for France would have been catastrophic for France; they'd fought till the bitter end to get victory.
2: Even at the low point for the Entente in early 1918, the Germans had nothing left. Even if they had achieved a break through, the Allies would have simply withdrawn and regrouped.
3: By 1918, the British Army was probably the best army in the whole world, have learned after four years of war. If Germany had achieved a breakthrough, the new and improved British Army, along with American and French aid would of crushed the over-extended and depleted Heer.
 
I'd say neither War. WW2 for obvious reason, and the 1st for the following:

1: Defeat for France would have been catastrophic for France; they'd fought till the bitter end to get victory.
2: Even at the low point for the Entente in early 1918, the Germans had nothing left. Even if they had achieved a break through, the Allies would have simply withdrawn and regrouped.
3: By 1918, the British Army was probably the best army in the whole world, have learned after four years of war. If Germany had achieved a breakthrough, the new and improved British Army, along with American and French aid would of crushed the over-extended and depleted Heer.

1: And how far can they go? France might be too exhausted to effectively continue - the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak sort of thing.

2: And the Entente is rather short too. Eliminate the US, and things get problematic.

3: The best army in the whole world?

And of course, if there is no US intervention pending, there is no all-or-nothing attack by Germany to prevent it from mattering.
 
Last edited:
1: Defeat for France would have been catastrophic for France; they'd fought till the bitter end to get victory.

Yet even OTL, by May 1917 they were unwilling to do anything more than defend the trenches, which, unless they change their minds, implies at best a negotiated peace in which Germany holds all the best bargaining chips, given how deep inside France the front lines are. More likely, with no prospect of American help, and Britain, sans US loans, no longer able to keep up the subsidies on which France depends, morale continues to slide until even defending the trenches no longer seems worth the candle.
 
... the entente can not buy the things they NEED to buy from the usa, if the usa give the loans only against cash or values IN the usa...

...the entente needed the american materials so urgently that in spring 1917 no new opeartions had been possible if the usa declare "no goods without true money"...

so the thing is: if usa just deliver against cash (like they did from 1914-early 1917) the entente cannot win this war. they are to weak to win, they are more exhausted...

so the result is:
...c.) france has lesser hope (for the americans)... (but if the germans duplicate their kaiser-operation, they have no longer the forces or the will to try to WIN this war)
d.) uk is economical ruined, its troops in france suffer more heavily, new and better weapons will be not produced or in lesser numbers -> short say: they knew they cannot win...
..
so if the germans start negotiations, after their crushing victories against russia, serbia, italy the chance that france agree is high, even higher if they loose space in the spring-1918-operation... without france the brits have to give up, esp. in 1918... so yes, germany wins.
...
But with the usa IN the war, it is game-over.
Lots of ifs, though plausible they're still ifs. The Entente was not going to collapse spontaneously due to lack of US loans, though they certainly helped their side of the war effort. To assume entente nations were about to give up and can be said just as easily of the other side as well.

Pas d'argent, pas de Suisses.

Oui, mais ils ont l'argent. Meme pour les deux.


HM Treasury does not seem to have shared your confidence.

If I remember my Devlin correctly, by end 1916 they were already reducing anticipated purchases for the new year, and had to refuse a French request for a further British loan. Passing strange if the US loans (or lack of) presented no problem.

Incidentally, if you are correct on this matter, then there was absolutely no need for the US Treasury to agree to unsecured loans in 1917/18. So why on earth did they do so?

Which would have been more than offset by the longer voyages required if Britain could no longer purchase in the US. Beg pardon, but I think I've mentioned that already...

I absolutely agree that they loans were helpful towards the war-effort, as they would have been for any side of the war. That just doesn't mean that a collapse was actually happening. However in a time of war, one cannot minimize (or not maximize) any strategically important advantage. Any straw could have broken the camel's back in theory, but if people agree on the helpfulness of US finance, then certainly you can see the political reaction to encourage continued loans. Economically, however, one cannot say that the loans were the war itself.

Most First World War historians disagree with you, then. In every book I've read the economic importance of the United States is made clear. Books by non-American authors, too. Hell, even Keegan's less than superb book makes the importance of US loans fairly clear.
Certainly I'll be in the minority then and state that though the loans were importance, anyone who wants to say that the Entente was about to collapse because of the lack of US loans is wrong. Anyone who says the Central Powers were about to collapse because of the lack of US loans would be wrong too. That is all very different from saying that US loans were helpful and important.

...The French had lost nearly all of their raw material deposits in 1914 and needed to import coal, iron, and most other industrial materials. Food even needed to be imported as men were drafted and horses used for the war. In Britain the problem isn't as great because the colonies were able to make loans and still accepted the Pound (only the Pound) for purchases. The problem was that they couldn't produce nearly enough for the Entente themselves.

Without loans, which were providing the only source of Dollars available to the Entente, the US is no longer a supplier of anything for the Entente. Gone is 70% of French production and food. The British still have about 60% of theirs, which included support from the colonies. But at that point the Entente has lost the ability to fight offensively.

Sure they can try and get neutral nations to supply them, like Argentina, but remember 1917 was a bad harvest globally and in Argentina, with 1918 not being promising either. Don't expect it to get better as time goes on. At what point do other nations finally give up on the British? What about their problems replacing convoy losses through the German sub war? Remember even without the unrestricted campaign losses were running into the 100 thousands of tons a month. The British didn't have enough escorts or hulls to ship everything. When they can't afford to pay to rent other nation's ships, which they had to from 1914 on, what happens then?

At that point the war cannot be won and its not worth fighting. Better to cut losses before the Germans figure out their leverage.

Oh, and we are forgetting that Wilson was planning on confronting the British about their blockade of the Central Powers. Right in mid-1917 the US was going to start escorting ships into German and AH harbors and challenge the British government.

This would have been a godsend for the Central Powers and further increased the pressure to win the war. There was plenty of money floating around those societies and the prohibition against the Mark and Crown was not yet part of US policy. This was private money, not the government, so private business could buy food from the US and hire US hulls to ship it to avoid the blockade, especially thanks to their massive profits from the war. The German government doesn't even need to worry about buying up food, because there were plenty of private businesses with international investments that were eager and able to purchase in the US. Remember the merchant submarine Deutschland? Built by private money, run by a private crew, and purchased goods in the US with private funds to sell in Germany both on the market and to the government! Plus the German government had a ton of collateral in the US that it had not had access to thanks to the war. It can start collateralizing it for loans, just as the Entente had done for years and use that money for US materials and food.

Face it, the US entry into the war saved the Entente is just about every way...

Sorry, it just doesn't make sense for the Entente to collapse due to a shortage of US loans when there are other financial, logistical, tactical considerations to consider, whether it's the success of convoys, the stalemated trench war on both sides, the fact that the us made some threats about loans shouldn't mean much. The US wanted to support England more than official policy showed, but it stayed officially neutral for much of the war. Still its threats to both side were not actual actions we can talk about that took effect. They were talk that never turned to walk.
Convoys and rations were making things better for the entente, not worse.
I don't see how the industrial power that was England during the 1800's was weaker in the early 1900's during WW1 vis a vis Germany than in the mid 1900's during WW2. Britain was an industrial powerhouse with colonies around the world and access to materials and finances from within their home territory and abroad. Germany was powerful, sure, but during the WW1 defeat, they cannot be said to have been at their economic or military peak any longer. In fact, what about Germany's Turnip Winter and the flue, why make Britain look weaker during WW1 than Germany?

Several points:-
1)US goods could ONLY be bought in USD before, during and after the war. Which is why the fiorst loans were made.. because there was a shortage of USD outside of the US.. not because of a shortage of cash.
2)Loans were/are not the only method of obtaining USD, the US did not cease to trade with either the French of British Empires or anyone else who didn't use the USD as their currency (which is about 90% of the globe) - the USD is NOT the reserve currency of the world in this time frame (gold was if anything could be classed as such).
3) right, April 1917 US declares war.. and in mid 1917 they are going to push escorted convoys into Germany. (literal reading of your post).

Agreed


Printing cash - the UK Treasury (and Gov't) was dead set against this policy and any policy that threatened to weaken the USD/GBP exchange rate as with the medium term need to purchase huge volumes from the US it would have been totally counter productive.
Total war - the French had a worse state then the British for war conversion proportion principally due to the loss of so much of its original manufacturing capability, and the UK managed to export quite a significant amount during WW1 (unlike in ww2).
As I mentioned previously, the UK only USD trade was back into a surplus by 1917 - this includes war purchases in its own right. The total net borrowings by the UK from the US amounted to 10% of UK total war expenditure, so not overly high, certainly not effort crippling.

Good point. Seems to be overlooked in regards to the life-or-death view of US loans.

I'd say neither War. WW2 for obvious reason, and the 1st for the following:

1: Defeat for France would have been catastrophic for France; they'd fought till the bitter end to get victory.
2: Even at the low point for the Entente in early 1918, the Germans had nothing left. Even if they had achieved a break through, the Allies would have simply withdrawn and regrouped.
3: By 1918, the British Army was probably the best army in the whole world, have learned after four years of war. If Germany had achieved a breakthrough, the new and improved British Army, along with American and French aid would of crushed the over-extended and depleted Heer.

Reasonable points.

oh, sorry... mea culpa :)

No problem.
 
Certainly I'll be in the minority then and state that though the loans were importance, anyone who wants to say that the Entente was about to collapse because of the lack of US loans is wrong. Anyone who says the Central Powers were about to collapse because of the lack of US loans would be wrong too. That is all very different from saying that US loans were helpful and important.

It's your right to have that opinion, but everything I've read says otherwise. US loans were key to maintaining the French economy, and to a lesser extent the British economy which was supporting the French one.
 

Deleted member 1487

Sorry, it just doesn't make sense for the Entente to collapse due to a shortage of US loans when there are other financial, logistical, tactical considerations to consider, whether it's the success of convoys, the stalemated trench war on both sides, the fact that the us made some threats about loans shouldn't mean much. The US wanted to support England more than official policy showed, but it stayed officially neutral for much of the war. Still its threats to both side were not actual actions we can talk about that took effect. They were talk that never turned to walk.
Collapse is a strong word. Thanks to financial tricks, the Entente isn't going to implode overnight, but they will have to make deep cuts to their war effort to keep it going. The first casualty is going to the British blockade, as they will be unlikely to be able to continue the policy of monopolizing trade with neutrals to keep them from trading with Germany.
The British could go off the gold standard too, but that seems to have been a step too far for the conservative government in London.
US support for Britain fell off as the war went on and Wilson got more fed up with the behavior and hard line the British government took. Greece and the blockade raised some real issues with Washington, especially the 'Black List'. By late 1916 the failure of the Entente to even play Wilson's game and offer peace terms, which the Germans did, really soured the Entente to Wilson. By early 1917, before the Germans started their Uboat offensive, Entente stock was at an all time low in Washington, about the equal of the Germans in the eyes of many. Even Wilson's pro-British advisor, Cl. House, was dropped from Wilson's graces.

Convoys and rations were making things better for the entente, not worse.
I don't see how the industrial power that was England during the 1800's was weaker in the early 1900's during WW1 vis a vis Germany than in the mid 1900's during WW2. Britain was an industrial powerhouse with colonies around the world and access to materials and finances from within their home territory and abroad. Germany was powerful, sure, but during the WW1 defeat, they cannot be said to have been at their economic or military peak any longer. In fact, what about Germany's Turnip Winter and the flue, why make Britain look weaker during WW1 than Germany?
Germany surpassed Britain industrially in the early 20th century, becoming the world's second largest economy by a comfortable margin in 1914. 1939 only increased this gap between Britain and Germany. A large part of the reason is that Germany came from behind and wasn't united until later, so had excellent examples to base their industrialization on. It was also state-directed, which allowed them to avoid the issues that plagued the British economy after their haphazard industrialization throughout the 19th century. Furthermore Germany had a larger population and a central position in Europe, plus a history of craft goods, so they had excellent room for expansion.

British colonial control is often overblown. They didn't have the right often to just demand things from their colonies and appropriate them, most of their colonies were alliances with local elites, which required the British to pay for what they used. Also in early 1900's the colonies cost Britain money rather than being a boon to her economy. She had captive markets and resources, but these were often purposely kept underdeveloped and could not buy much, while also producing only certain goods. Plus most of it was too far away to use in war time reliably. That is why the US was such a good source of everything. It was far cheaper to use and much closer. To import from Asia would require more than 4 times the distance to travel for her ships, while often places like India had troubles of their own. Food shortages and famine resulted more often in Britain being forced to import food to India rather than being able to use it to feed the British.

Also there are issues of cost. Britain refused to debase her currency by printing money and was quite leveraged. To import from Asia would mean having to pay more than 4 times the shipping cost and expose her ships to German raiders for longer, plus stretch the British escorts even more. Losses in ships would be that much more painful due to the longer delays in bringing goods in from the colonies. If you can provide sources that the colonies were good sources of food and raw materials, please do, because AFAIK outside of Australia and Canada, which didn't have all that much to export, the African and Asian colonies didn't really have metals and coal to export to Britain, nor oil (remember that the Middle Eastern oil was barely starting development in 1914 and the US was the primary source of world oil).

Plus Britain was dealing with guerilla wars in Persia, India (Pakistan today), and Afghanistan throughout the war, not to mention Lettow-Vorbeck in Africa, who wasn't receiving any supplies from Germany.

All of this ignores France, who was wholly dependent on Britain for raising loans and guaranteeing shipments of materials for her industries. Britain would survive without loans, France would wither. Remember Winston Churchill wrote in his history of WW1 that without US loans the war would have ended in 1917 due to negotiations, because it was impossible to fight without sufficient resources, financial and otherwise.

Germany had its share of problems too. Much, like the Turnip Winter, were self inflicted due to a change in leadership and terrible mismanagement of the economy by Ludendorff. The issues were corrected and in 1918 the German food situation was actually better than during the Turnip Winter. The flu arrived with the Americans in 1918 and spread to them once the US soldiers entered into the trenches. Prior it wasn't an issue.
Germany wanted and probably needed peace in 1917, all except her generals/dictators at the top. But without a willing partner, which a loan-less Entente would be, she had to fight to the bitter end.
 
WWI is the obvious choice.

It all comes down to the USA remain neutral.

If this happens the a settlement will happen most likely at the expense of France belgium and Russia.

Now how do we define neutral?

No loans?
No preferential trade?

There are lots of variables.

Now lets say that with Russia on its knees KWII has any attack of sanity and declares USW dead in march of 1917.
Or even no Zimmermann telegram and no resumption of USW would most likely see the US sit out the war as Wilson didn't have the numbers to force a DoW through Congress.

Of course by 1917 the USA needed an Entente win or the USA's economy would head south very quickly after they lost.

Several US financiers JP Morgan among them had committed vast funds to the entente.
If the entente lost they would have been destroyed.

Then you could get the really wild ones like US invasion of Canada to recover war debt.
Never considered but it could have been contemplated by somebody in congress.
 
Lots of ifs, though plausible they're still ifs. The Entente was not going to collapse spontaneously due to lack of US loans, though they certainly helped their side of the war effort. To assume entente nations were about to give up and can be said just as easily of the other side as well.


I absolutely agree that they loans were helpful towards the war-effort, as they would have been for any side of the war. That just doesn't mean that a collapse was actually happening.


Certainly I'll be in the minority then and state that though the loans were importance, anyone who wants to say that the Entente was about to collapse because of the lack of US loans is wrong.


Depends what you mean by "about to".

I don't think anyone is suggesting (certainly I never have) that had the US not declared war in April, the allies would have surrendered in May or anything like that. Indeed, it is at least arguable that Britain could have carried on her war effort even without US loans - though she couldn't have gone on subsidising her continental allies without them.

The problem is longer term than that. France in particular is dependent on British subsidies, due to so much of her industrial areas being in German hands. If these stop (and in 1916 Britain had already had to refuse a further one) she can't carry on for long. Also, her morale is low in 1917, about the only ray of light being the prospect that if she just "hangs in" American manpower will eventually save her. That is the crucial change. She doesn't have to beat the Germans any more, just hold her own. Previously, she was faced with having to drive the Germans out of the lands they occupied, a task which by Spring 1917 was starting to look impossible.


Sorry, it just doesn't make sense for the Entente to collapse due to a shortage of US loans when there are other financial, logistical, tactical considerations to consider, whether it's the success of convoys, the stalemated trench war on both sides, the fact that the us made some threats about loans shouldn't mean much.


What "threats"? The US didn't threaten anyone. It, or rather the Federal Reserve, simply stated (correctly) that unsecured loans were a poor risk to which Americans, individual or corporate, should hesitate to subscribe. Even Secretary Lansing, perhaps the most pro-Allied member of the Administration, shared this opinion.


Convoys and rations were making things better for the entente, not worse.

Better for Britain maybe. The worst food crisis in France and Italy came in the winter of 1917/18, long after convoys had been introduced.

As already mentioned, if ships (convoyed or not) have to go twice as far to collect their cargoes, they can only transport half as much in any given time. So if financial problems curtail imports from the US, that's a heavier blow than anything u-boats can inflict, and one which convoys can do nothing to repair.
 
No, that is not true... ww1 could have been very positive...

if germany wins but turn true democratic because the people start social unrest and the social democrates and others turn down the kaiser you achieve a lot positive things
a.) coloniallism will be finished early - uk and france, loosing this war cannot gain the german colonies, even loose some (france, belgium)
But the germans can only keep their colonies as long as the kaiser exist. a democratic germany (similar to weimar) will give up most areas that cost money instead of bring some... so the germans will give up most colonies quite fast. IF they do so, the brits are in BIG troubles to keep theirs... also, if the germans take over some "old" french colonies these will make troubles quite fast... and with the fact that in 1923 germany is a democracy these countries will gain independence... so germany catch em, loose em but the entente-forces will not get em back
for me such scenario is a big winning point. the european colonialism is over... if two african nations get liberty, the rest will follow up quite fast. If it happen peacefully AND the former "masters" can keep the contracts for ressources this will help to keep this peaceful (nobody want terrorism and problems)
b.) with germany winning uk as a superpower is gone - this is a big advantage, cause the balance-of-power-domination by an island is gone.
germany will have a few years this power, but quickly others in central europe will rise... all will benefit if germany as a democracy do not start wars (and i doubt that the german government can start any war with the people knowing how terrible such war was)

c.) france will be angry but to weak... with some time they will learn to live without al... maybe the democratic germany will hold elections and it will be parted in a german and in a french part...

d.) poland will exist, but without power (this is a really good thing if we look into the timefray 1918-1939), some border adjustments will happen, but peacefull. propably the poles will be expelled from germany and germans from poland (at last for the die-hard-fraction this will be true), the poles that want to stay in germany will just start to be germans (at last they can move to poland... so the ones that want to be poles can go - if they try to start something like the IRA the germans will expell em)

e.) the baltic states quickly will "loose" their german kings and have a lot potential, either turning red (and be a problem for the poles and germans) or beeing democracies

f.) russia is weakened, but not red. so the development in heavy industry is slow, but the peasants and workers will be important (something like a social democratics will surely rule this nation)
it could still go red, also civil wars or border conflicts with japan or china are possible... but - important - no superpower in the next 30 years

g.) japan has some problems... the germans want some of their colonies back (just to make sure who won this war), will sell most, but i think they still keep one or two islands

h.) the usa benefits from the situation a lot, they will be superpower very quick (even faster as otl)...

in the end the germans will have 10-20 years of "superpowerstatus" and after that will go down to the big nr2, a good way behind the usa but far ahead all others... with a more leftist democratic government (i think the SPD will dominate mostly german governments) germany can improve fast and will grow in economic things... without the nazis the "brain" of germany will stay and improve the situation... something like the 20ties, just in an european context would be the result.

so the european unification will start much earlier. with some luck it will be like in 2000, but in 1950... war between european nations is very unrealistic

i forgot the austrians and the balcan... yes.
cause this is a problem...
some will gain power (bulgaria, hungaria), some will suffer (romania, serbia!)

the osmans have all chances, esp. with german money it can improve its situation (also having all the oil (including the oil the brits HAD have) helps a lot)... so the osman-german axis could be very strong... but also sadly this osman empire could still be very cruel (think about the armenians...)


sure - for such scenario a lot things have to go the right way... but i just like to say that this end of ww1 would be much better (only some nationalistic guys (esp. from poland)) as the otl world.

I disagree on many of these points.

-It is possible that Germany turns democratic. It is also possible that Germany, just like Imperial Japan, turns into a militaristic, fascist dictatorship, exercising a hegemony over the Continent of Europe which threatens to go to war again against Britain in the future once the latter gets tired of having the Riskflotte pointed at them, or for some other political crisis, and another long and bloody war ensues.

-What exactly does democracy have to do with colonialism? Both Britain and France had wide electorates in the early 20th century. Both Britain and France found that some of their colonies were losing money. Neither Britain nor France, until after the Second World War, decided to relieve themselves of their colonies. Why should Germany, which has for so long wanted its 'place in the sun', and has had genuine public support for Empire, want to relinquish them? And why is Germany going to govern them any better than the British or French colonial administrations?

-France had many years to learn to live without Alsace Lorraine before the First World War. Now Germany's taken away the Loire ore fields for nakedly economic reasons. It could even collapse into a dictatorship itself. But, of course, as it isn't a German dictatorship, this is somehow all for the better.

-Why does the US benefit from this situation? Germany as a European hegemonic power does not benefit it. Germany as a great economic rival, strengthened by its European conquests, does not benefit it. Germany imposing a gigantic series of trade barriers on Mitteleuropa to defend its trade does not benefit it. The USA remaining isolationist due to a lack of involvement in WWI does not benefit its great power status either. The USA may grow in economic power, but in diplomatic terms it remains huddled in the corner minding its own business.

-Is it not possible that, as the Tsar has suffered yet another humiliation due to yet another massive military defeat, that he is overthrown anyway, and Revolution unleashed? (With more possibility of making mischief in Asia, and in the German buffer states now ruled by another foreign monarch.)

And, for reasons of pure curiosity-informationfan, why do you not use capital letters and suchlike?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Depends what you mean by "about to".

I don't think anyone is suggesting (certainly I never have) that had the US not declared war in April, the allies would have surrendered in May or anything like that. Indeed, it is at least arguable that Britain could have carried on her war effort even without US loans - though she couldn't have gone on subsidising her continental allies without them.

The problem is longer term than that. France in particular is dependent on British subsidies, due to so much of her industrial areas being in German hands. If these stop (and in 1916 Britain had already had to refuse a further one) she can't carry on for long. Also, her morale is low in 1917, about the only ray of light being the prospect that if she just "hangs in" American manpower will eventually save her. That is the crucial change. She doesn't have to beat the Germans any more, just hold her own. Previously, she was faced with having to drive the Germans out of the lands they occupied, a task which by Spring 1917 was starting to look impossible.

Agreed, and this is a good summary. To expand a little, Britain could keep fighting until her Navy was defeated, until a pro-peace government was elected, or open revolt/general-strike by the population.

For other historical parallels, look at Russia. Food is very short in the Winter of 1916/17, and then in a few days, the regime crumbles. The Russian Army does not immediately leave the field despite low supplies and the revolution, but it is a shadow of the army that Brusilov lead in 1916, as the later German attacks would show. While at no where near the speed of 1941, the Germans were running wild with 5 major columns advancing on ineffective resistance. Without aid, France runs the same risks. An army that is in the field and will not advance that gradually falls apart on the next major German offensive.

Or for a more modern example, look at the Vietnam war. Before Tet Offensive, the USA had a modern army with good discipline to an army where privates assassinated officers. The collapse of the morale and discipline was an evolutionary process, but it did happen.

Or probably for the best example, look at what happened to the French/British forces after the war without American aid. France had trouble keeping 750K troops in France and Germany due to budget issues. While there would have been more resources allocated to the war if the Germans were still in the field, it was doubtful they could have maintained an army as large as they did without american aid. Or look at Turkey. The USA history books like to show the Entente decisively defeating the Ottomans. In reality, it was stalemated in 1915/1916, Entente won in 1917/1918, there was a cease fire, then the war resumed, where it again stalemated for a few more years. The combined armies of France, Britain, and Greece were unable to defeat Turkey. And controlling the Bosphorus was a major strategic goal for the UK.
 
f.) russia is weakened, but not red. so the development in heavy industry is slow, but the peasants and workers will be important (something like a social democratics will surely rule this nation)
it could still go red, also civil wars or border conflicts with japan or china are possible... but - important - no superpower in the next 30 years

Germany cannot unring the bell of backing the Bolsheviks. It created the Bolshevik monster and even if it wins, it cannot contain it. Germany can only depose Bolshevik Russia if it's willing to risk another major war into the interior of Russia right after World War I, of the sort that will collapse morale and cohesion of the German military and bring Germany into a Great October of its own. If somehow the Whites win and impose either a military regime or a revival of the House of Romanov, the Germans are screwed even worse as now Russia's never going to see Germany as anything but a treacherous, vicious enemy which delenda est.
 
Top