A Riot in Birmingham and the Death of David Lloyd George: A Timeline from December 1901

pipisme

David Lloyd George tried to speak at an anti Boer War meeting in Birmingham Town Hall on 18 December 1901. A pro-war demonstration of 7,000 people degenerated into a riot. In a pitched battle a policeman and a rioter were killed. In OTL LLoyd George escaped disguised as a policeman. In this timeline he was fatally injured. That is the POD.

He left behind his wife Margaret, and their four children - Richard born 1889, Mair born 1890, Olwen born 1892 and Gwilym born 1894. Margaret was pregnant and would give birth to Megan on 22 April 1902.
 

pipisme

Lloyd George was buried at a funeral service in Criccieth Methodist Church, in north Wales. There was widespread outrage and indignation at his death. A public enquiry appointed by the Home Secretary, Charles Ritchie, concluded that Lloyd George's death was a tragic accident.

The by-election to elect a successor to Lloyd George as MP for Caernarvon Boroughs was held on 8 February 1902. It was won for the Liberals by Allen Clement Edwards with a majority over Conservative of 15.8%. In the 1900 general election, Lloyd George had a majority of 6.6% over Conservative, Edwards was Liberal candidate for Denbigh Boroughs in that election.

Sir Henry Campbell- Bannerman became Prime Minister at the head of a Liberal government on 5 December 1905. His cabinet was the same as in otl, except that Sidney Buxton became President of the Board of Trade, instead of Lloyd George, Reginald McKenna was appointed Postmaster-General. Walter Runciman
became Financial Secretary to the Treasury,

On 23 January 1907, McKenna was moved from Postmaster-General to President of the Board of Education, Runciman promoted to Postmaster-General, and Herbert Samuel became Financial Secretary to the Treasury.

Campbell-Bannerman resigned as Prime Minister on 5 April 1908. He was suceeded by Herbert Henry Asquith, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Asquith moved Herbert Gladstone from Home Secretary to Chancellor and Buxton from President of the Board of Trade to Home Secretary.

In 1903 when he was Liberal Chief Whip, Gladstone negotiated a secret electoral pact with Ramsay MacDonald, Secretary of the Labour Representation Committee, whereby the Liberals agreed to give Labour a free run in some constituencies. He was not a radical like Lloyd George. In this timeline I want to explore British politics without Lloyd George.
 
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pipisme

After 1900 land value taxation was increasingly brought forward as a Liberal Party policy. The United Committee for the Taxation of Land Values was formed in 1902. In 1902 to 1904, private members bills for the rating of land values were introduced into the House of Commons by Liberal MPs. These bills were defeated. After the 1906 general election, the Land Values Group was one of the most active in the House of Commons. The King's Speech in February 1908 included the promise of land valuation for England. (1)

Expectations were high that taxation of land values would be in the budget on 29 April 1909. However it was not. Herbert Gladstone, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, raised the tax on unearned incomes from 1s to 1s 2d, increased death duties to a maximum of 15%, from 8%, on estates worth over £1 million, imposed of 6d in the pound on incomes over £5,000, and a petrol tax, raised the duties on spirits and tobacco, and on both stamp and licence duties. (2)

(1) This was as in OTL, and taken from the book Liberals, Radicals and Social Politics 1892 - 1914 by H. V. Emy, Cambridge University Press, 1973.

(2) These tax changes were as in the April 1909 budget in OTL. See Emy above.
 
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pipisme

Many Liberal MPs were disappointed with the budget. They regarded as a lost opportunity to raise money by taxing land values. Because there was not a tax on the unearned increment of land value, unlike in OTL, the House of Lords did not reject the budget. Therefore there were no general elections in 1910.

In February 1910, Herbert Gladstone resigned as Chancellor of the Exchequer on his appointment as Governor-General of South Africa. In the subsequent government reshuffle, Asquith moved Winston Churchill from President of the Board of Trade to Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Walter Runciman from President of the Board of Education to President of the Board of Trade. Herbert Samuel was appointed President of the Board of Education.

The National Insurance Act 1910 provided for insurance against illness and unemployment. It was similar to the National Insurance Act 1911 in OTL.

Parliament was dissolved on 1 October 1911, and a general election was held from 5 to 22 October.
 
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pipisme

I have decided to change the date of the general election from October 1911 to April 1912. This is in accordance with precedent of previous general elections. If the prime minister did not call an early general election, then it is at least six years after the previous election. Easter Sunday was 7 April in 1912. Parliament was dissolved on 4 April 1912, the first day of polling was 12 April, the final day was 29 April.

The Parliamentary Franchise (Women) Bill, commonly called the Conciliation Bill, passed its second reading in the House of Commons by a large majority in July 1910. It would have given the vote to about a million middle and upper class property owning women. It then went to a Committee of the Whole House. But the bill was lost because of the end of the parliamentary session. A Second Conciliation Bill received a second reading in the House of Commons by a large majority in May 1912. Although it was a private member's bill, the government promised it a week of parliamentary time. But no time was given before the summer recess at the beginning of August 1911.

Asquith was a determined opponent of women's suffrage, and in November 1911 he said that he was in favour of a manhood suffrage bill, which would extend the vote to men excluded from the franchise, but not enfranchise women. After Asquith's statement, the Women's Social and Political Union (WSPU) resumed its militant activities, having called a truce because of the Conciliation Bill.

In the general election campaign, the WSPU published leaflets and posters accusing the Liberal government of being torturers because of force feeding of women hunger strikers. They called on women to ask their husbands, fathers, sons, brothers and sweethearts to vote against Liberal candidates. The non militant suffragists called for a vote for candidates who pledged to vote for legislation enfranchising women, if they were elected.

When all the votes had been counted the number of seats won by each party in the House of Commons were as follows:
Conservative: 331
Liberal: 211
Irish Parliamentary: 73
Labour: 44
All for Ireland League: 8
Independent Irish Nationalist: 2
Independent Conservative: 1
----------------
Total: 670
--------------
Liberal plus IPP, Labour, AIL, and Independent Irish Nationalist had 338 seats. Conservative and Independent Conservative had 332 seats. That was a government majority of six seats. But because the Speaker, James Lowther, is included in the Conservative total, the actual government majority was seven seats.

The Attorney-General, Sir Rufus Isaacs lost Reading, and the Under-Secretary at the India Office, Edwin Montague, was defeated in his Cambridgeshire constituency of Chesterton. However the Liberals gained Lanarkshire North West from the Tories, and won back Manchester North West, which they had lost in a by-election in 1908.

The percentage votes for each party were as follows:
Conservative: 47.3
Liberal: 40.9
Labour: 9.1
IPP, AIL and Independent Irish Nationalist: 2.5
Others: 0.2
-----------------
Total: 100.0
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pipisme

The Liberal Government's precarious majority of seven seats in the House of Commons meant that there would be no Irish Home Rule or Women's Franchise Bills, or Land Value Tax. In fact Home Rule would stay buried in the long grass for how long anyone knew, because of the House of Lords veto. The Conservatives would need to gain only four seats in by-elections to have a majority in the House of Commons.

Asquith reshuffled his government on 1 May 1912. Richard Haldane was promoted from Secretary of State for War to Lord Chancellor, in place of Earl Loreburn who resigned. Haldane was replaced at the War Office by John Edward Seely who was promoted from Under-Secretary at the War Office. Sir John Simon was promoted from Solicitor-General to Attorney-General in place of Sir Rufus Isaacs who lost his Reading seat in the general election. James Falconer was appointed Solicitor-General and received the customary knighthood. Earl Carrington, the Lord Privy Seal, resigned. The Marquess of Crewe was appointed in his place. Crewe was also India Secretary. Lord Pentland resigned as Secretary for Scotland. Thomas McKinnon Wood was promoted from Under Secretary at the Foreign Office to Scotland Secretary. Thomas Macnamara was moved from Parliamentary and Financial Secretary to the Admiralty to Under-Secretary at the India Office in place of Edwin Montague who had lost Chesterton in the general election. Francis Acland was moved from Financial Secretary at the War Office to Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office.
 
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pipisme

Parliament assembled on 7 May 1912 after the general election. On 16 May, during the debate on the King's Speech, the leader of the Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP), John Redmond. said:
"My p arty will no longer be treated like the patient oxen of the Liberal Party. The Irish people have waited for decades for their just and right request for Home Rule to be granted. The Liberal Party has failed them. If the democratic demand of the Irish people for self-government is not met peacefully, then it will be taken by force. The Irish people have all but lost hope in Parliament giving them Home Rule. They will turn to revolution and Irish blood and British blood will be shed. The moderate and constitutional demand for Home Rule will be completely swept away and Ireland will become completely a separate nation from Britain."

The leadership of the IPP told Irish voters in Britain not to vote for Liberal candidates in future elections. Sinn Fein had not put up any candidates in the April 1912 general election, but they were waiting for the right circumstances.
 

pipisme

The Crewe by-election on 26 July 1912, caused by the death of Walter McLaren [Liberal] was a Conservative gain from Liberal. Labour intervened and polled 21.4% of the vote. The Manchester North West by election on 8 August 1912, caused by the resignation of George Kemp [Liberal] was a Conservative gain from Liberal.
 

pipisme

The Midlothian by-election on 10 September 1912, caused by the elevation of Alexander Murray (Liberal) to the peerage as Baron Murray of Elibank, was a Conservative gain from Liberal. The percentage votes for each party were as follows (April 1912 general election):
Conservative: 42.1 (41.1)
Liberal: 36.6 (58.9)
Labour: 21.3 (n/a)
This was a Conservative majority of 5.5%, compared with a Liberal majority of 17.8% in the general election. The Labour Party campaign was supported by the Scottish Federation of Women's Suffrage Societies. The United Irish League urged the six to seven hundred Irish miners in the constituency to vote Labour, in opposition to the refusal of the Liberal government to introduce an Irish Home Rule bill.

The Bow and Bromley by-election, caused by the resignation of George Lansbury (Labour) in order to fight a by-election on the issue of Women's Suffrage, was held on Tuesday 26 November 1912. The National Executive Committee did not endorse his candidature. The result of the election was a Conservative gain from Labour.

Excluding the Speaker, there now 335 Conservative and Independent Conservative MPs, to 334 from other parties. On 28 November, the Conservative Party tabled a motion of no confidence in the government. The motion was debated on 3 December, and passed by 335 votes to 259 votes.
The Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP) and Independent Irish Nationalist MP abstained in the vote. Before the debate, the Conservative Whips had assurances that the IPP would abstain in the vote because they wanted to assert their independence of the Liberal Party. The All for Ireland MPs voted with Liberal and Labour against the motion.

The following day, the Prime Minister, Herbert Asquith, announced in the House of Commons that Parliament would be dissolved on 6 December, and a general election held. The first day of voting would be 6 January 1913 and the last day 30 January.
 

pipisme

The President of the Board of Agriculture and Fisheries, Charles Trevelyan, launched the Land Enquiry in August 1912. It was established to investigate the wages and working conditions of agricultural labourers and farmers. It had not reported by the January 1913 general election, The Conservatives said they would keep the Enquiry in existence.

The Tories were divided on their policy as regards National Insurance. Austen Chamberlain had commented in 1910 that it was a good idea. However they had voted against the National Insurance Bill. Andrew Bonar Law had announced that a Conservative government would end Health Insurance, but was forced to retract by Austen Chamberlain and his supporters. In their election campaign, the Conservatives said that a Conservative government would make employee and employer contributions voluntary, instead of compulsory which they were.

The Conservative Party leader, Arthur Balfour, pledged that a Conservative government would hold a referendum on Tariff Reform. Asquith promised that a Liberal government would introduce a Manhood Suffrage bill in the House of Commons. This was condemned as completely inadequate by advocates of Women's Suffrage. The Conservative Party was divided on the issue of votes for women, though Balfour was in favour.

When all the votes had been counted the number of seats in the House of Commons won by each party were as follows (April 1912 general election):
Conservative: 365 (331)
Liberal: 175 (211)
IPP: 74 (73)
Labour: 45 (44)
All For Ireland League: 8 (8)
Independent Irish Nationalist: 2 (2)
Independent Conservative: 1 (1)
-----------------------
Total: 670 (670)
----------------------
Excluding the Speaker who was elected as a Conservative, the Conservatives and Independent Conservative had 365 seats, and all others 304. This was a Conservative majority of 61.

It was the best Conservative result since 1900, and the best Labour result ever. It was the lowest number of Liberal MPs elected. Labour gained Glamorganshire Mid from Liberal, and the IPP took County Dublin South from Conservative. Sinn Fein did not contest any constituency in the election.

The percentage votes for each party were as follows (April 1912 election):
Conservative: 49.6 (47.3)
Liberal: 37.5 (40.9)
Labour: 10.2 (9.1)
IPP: 1.7 (1.9)
All For Ireland League: 0.8 (0.6)
Others: 0,2 (0.2)
--------------------------------------
Conservative lead over Liberal: 12.1% (6.4%)
---------------------------------------
The national swing from Liberal to Conservative was 2.85%.
 

stodge

I presume WW1 will still happen - a Conservative Government would be, if anything, more disposed toward joining the conflict than Asquith was.

This will mean the Conservatives being the party leading the war - will they face a munitions crisis in 1916? There'll be no Home Rule for Ireland - Bonar Law will be a senior figure in a Balfour Government I would imagine. Balfour was Foreign Secretary in OTL's LLG Government but he'll now be in charge (at least to start with).

What happens to the Liberals in Opposition? Can they re-group under Asquith or do they move to a new leader such as Donald MacLean and re-invent themselves?
 

pipisme

Balfour became Prime Minister on 4 February 1913, following the resignation of Asquith. The members of his cabinet were as follows:
Prime Minister: Arthur Balfour
Lord Chancellor: Lord Finlay
Lord President of the Council: Lord Lansdowne
Lord Privy Seal: 4th Marquess of Salisbury
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Andrew Bonar Law
Foreign Secretary: Austen Chamberlain
Home Secretary: Walter Long
First Lord of the Admiralty: Lord Newton
President of the Board of Agriculture and Fisheries: Earl of Selborne
Colonial Secretary: Earl Curzon
President of the Board of Education: James Hope
India Secretary : Lord Robert Cecil (he was an MP)
Chief Secretary for Ireland: Sir Edward Carson
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Earl of Derby
President of the Local Government Board: William Hayes Fisher
Postmaster-General: Arthur Steel-Maitland
Scotland Secretary: Earl of Kintore
President of the Board of Trade: Ernest Pretyman
War Secretary: Arthur Lee.

Selected junior ministers:
Attorney-General: Sir Frederick Smith
Solicitor- General: Sir George Cave
Paymaster-General: Henry Foster
Financial Secretary to the Treasury: Willam Bridgeman
Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Government Chief Whip): Lord Edmund Talbot (he was an MP)
Under-Secretary Foreign Office: 5th Marquess of Bath
Vice President Department of Agriculture and Technical Co-operation for Ireland: Thomas Spring Rice, 2nd Baron Monteagle (1)
Parliamentary Secretary Board of Trade: Stanley Baldwin.

Balfour's government was a mixture of men who were in his previous administration of July 1902 to December 1905, and new men. The most unexpected apppintment was Carson as Chief Secretary for Ireland. He was not entirely trusted by the Ulster Unionists. He was not one of them, being Conservative MP for Dublin University and not a member of the Orange Order. Also the Belfast News-Letter revealed that his cousin, Maire Butler, coined the name Sinn Fein for that political party. In this timeline there was not a third Home Rule Bill, so no Ulster's Solemn League and Covenant, with Carson as the first signatory.

(1) Here is his entry in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Spring_Rice,_2nd_Baron_Monteagle_of_Brandon.
 
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pipisme

In the general election campaign the Conservative Party promised that if they formed the government, there would be a plebiscite on Home Rule for Ireland.

The second reading of the Government of Ireland Plebiscite Bill in the House of Commons was on 4 March 2013. It provided for a referendum on Irish Home Rule in the United Kingdom, with the following wording: 'Should Ireland have Home Rule within the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Yes or No?' The franchise for the referendum would be the same as for parliamentary elections. So women and an estimated forty percent of adult men would be excluded. But male university graduates and owners of business premises would have additional votes. They mostly voted Conservative. The votes cast in the referendum would be counted by parliamentary constituencies. The government was confident that there would be a decisive majority for no.

Moving the second reading of the bill, the Chief Secretary for Ireland, Sir Edward Carson, said that the plebiscite would give voters in the United Kingdom the opportunity to decide the issue of Irish Home Rule, without it being it being obscured by other issues as in general elections. He said that because Home Rule would change the relationship of Ireland to Britain, so voters in England, Scotland and Wales should have a vote, as well as those in Ireland.

Opposition MPs strongly opposed the bill. They wanted the referendum to be restriced to voters in Ireland only. The leader of the Irish Parliamentary Party, John Redmond, asked Carson, if the government would honour the result of the referendum if there was a majority for yes, and put an Irish Home Rule bill through Parliament. He said that the majority of voters in the United Kingdom did not want Ireland to have Home Rule. Conservative and Unionist voters did not, nor did many Liberals. The 1886 general election, the last one to be fought mostly on the issue of Home Rule, was a decisive Conservative and Liberal Unionist victory.

Augustine Birrell, the former Liberal Chief Secretary for Ireland, asked Carson if there was a no majority in the referendum, when would there be a second vote. Carson said not for many decades, if ever. Though opposition parties opposed the bill, they did not want to appear to be against giving people in the United Kingdom, the opportunity to vote on the issue. So the bill received an unopposed second reading. It then went to a Committee of the Whole House for its Committee Stage.
 

pipisme

In the Commitee Stage of the Government of Ireland Plebiscite Bill, an opposition amendment to limit the referendum to voters in Ireland only was defeated. On 9 April an opposition amendment to extend the franchise for the referendum to women, on the same terms as for men, was debated. It was defeated by a majority of 47 votes. This was less than the normal government majority of 61. After passing through all its stages in the House of Commons, and quickly through the House of Lords, it received the royal assent on 22 April 1913. The Home Secretary, Walter Long, told MPs that voting in the referendum would be over sixteen days from Tuesday 22 July to Thursday 7 August 2013.
 

pipisme

The referendum campaign was intense and closely fought. Both sides used public meetings, posters, leaflets, and house to house canvassing to try to persuade voters. The ' Yes' side was a coalition of the Liberal, Labour and Irish Parliamentary parties, the All for Ireland League, and Sinn Fein. The Campaign Committee comprised Asquith, Birrell (former Chief Secretary for Ireland), Ramsay MacDonald, the Chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party, John Redmond, William O'Brien, the leader of the All For Ireland League, and Arthur Griffith of Sinn Fein.

The 'No' camp was mostly Conservative with a few Liberals. Its Executive Committee comprised Balfour, Carson, Earl of Rosebery, Liberal Prime Minister from 1894 - 95, and James Craig, the leader of the Ulster Unionists.
 

pipisme

The 'Yes' hoped that a high turnout by their voters would bring them victory. They were counting on their supporters by being more motivated to vote than 'no' voters.

Carson gave an interview with the Irish Times . In reply to a question as to why he opposed Home Rule for Ireland, he said he believed passionately in a united Ireland within the United Kingdom. He was proud to be Irish and British. The Unionists of Ulster would never accept Home Rule, and a British government would have no alternative but to separate Ulster from the rest of Ireland. If Ireland were given Home Rule, it would not stop there, but would end in the complete separation of Ireland from Britain. Also Home Rule would mean a poorer Ireland.

He was asked if in the event of a 'no' victory in the referendum, was there a possibility of any devolution. Carson had to be very careful what he said. In September 1904, the Irish Reform Association, which believed in the union of Britain and Ireland, had published a scheme to establish a financial council to take control of purely Irish expenditure. This council would consist of the Lord Lieutenant and twelve elected and twelve nominated members, one of whom would be the Chief Secretary. The council 's decisions could only be overruled by a majority vote of three-quarters of the House of Commons The scheme also proposed that other Irish business should be delegated to a body comprising Irish MPs, Irish representative peers and the financial council.

The Irish Unionist Alliance condemned the scheme. In December 1904 a conference of Ulster Unionists in Belfast considered the formation of an Ulster Unionist Council, which was established in March 1905. George Wyndham, the Chief Secretary for Ireland, immediately disowned the devolution scheme. But he did not resign until March 1905. Carson was Solicitor-General at the time. The whole episode showed that Ulster Unionists opposed the smallest step of devolution.

Carson said that he could see merit in the creation of the establishment of a Department of Education in the Irish Office in Dublin, and the transfer of the Irish Public Works Board from the Treasury in London to the Irish Office. But he was completely opposed to any elected or nominated Irish council.
 

pipisme

The first results declared in the referendum were from Birmingham on Tuesday 23 July 2013. To no one's surprise there was a majority for 'no' in all seven constituencies in the city. The 'no vote' was over 73% in every constituency. On the same day the results were declared in the surrounding constituencies. They all showed 'no' majorities. The results from Liverpool, Manchester and borough constituencies in Lancashire and Preston were declared the next day, Eight of Liverpool's nine constituencies voted 'no', while Scotland voted 'yes'. Five of Manchester's six constituencies voted 'no', with only South voting 'yes'. Blackburn, Preston and Stockport had 'no' majorities, while Bolton and Oldham were wins for 'yes'.

More results were declared from borough constituencies in England during the rest of the week. Most of them had 'no' majorities. In the County of London 49 constituencies voted 'no' and only nine 'yes', in Bristol it was three 'no' and one 'yes'; and in Nottingham it was two 'no' and one 'yes'. The 'yes' side did better in Yorkshire, winning all three constituencies in Bradford, two out of three in Hull, and three out of five in Leeds, but only one out of five in Sheffield.

Constituencies in Scotland voted from Saturday 27 July. More of them voted 'yes' than 'no'. Edinburgh was equally divided between two 'no' and two 'yes'. The result in Glasgow was five 'yes' and three 'no'. Wales voted from 29 July, with 'yes' winning a majority in 27 of the 33 constituencies. English county constituencies voted from 30 July. Outside the mining constituencies which voted 'yes', most of them had 'no' majorities, though 'yes' won three out six in Cornwall, one in Devon, two in Norfolk, several in the West Riding of Yorkshire, and a scattering in other places.

Constituencies in Ireland voted from 31 July. There were long queues outside polling stations. Outside six counties in the north, there was a clean sweep for 'yes'. In rural constituencies in the south and west voted over 97% 'yes', with a few over 99%. Some polling stations did not record any 'no' votes.

When all the constituency results had been declared, the vote for 'no' was 53.7% and for 'yes' 46.3%. A 'no' majority of 7.4%. However in Ireland the vote was 82.9% for 'yes' and only 17.1% for 'no''. A 'yes' majority of 65.8%. Of the 645 constituencies in the United Kingdom, 399 voted 'no' and 246 'yes'.
 

pipisme

The number of constituencies which voted 'no ' or 'yes ' in the constituent nations of the UK were as follows:
England:
'No': 345
'Yes': 92
Ireland:
'Yes': 84
No: 16
Scotland:
'Yes': 43
'No': 26
Wales:
'Yes': 27
'No': 6
Universities:
'No': 6
'Yes': 0.
Because of double member seats the number of constituencies (645) was less than the number of MPs (670).

In Ireland the following constituencies voted 'no': Antrim East, Mid, North, South; Armagh Mid, North; Belfast: East. North, South; Down East, North, West; Fermanagh North; Londonderry North, South; Tyrone South.

The turnout for the UK was 87.2%. The highest was 97.4% in Londonderry which voted 'yes' by 121 votes.

Ministers in the previous Liberal government whose constituencies voted 'no' were: Augustine Birrell - Bristol North, Richard Haldane - Haddingtonshire, Thomas Macnamara - Camberwell North, Charles Masterman - West Ham North,
Sir John Simon - Walthamstow.
 
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