Rereading several threads on the A Bomb several PoD turned up which could have waived away a nuclear weapon for WWII. My question here is how would the course for development for such weapons have been post war.
The basis
1. The USN project started as a power source research project. I dont know if any of the research pointed to atomic weapons when it was rolled into the Manhatten Project in 1942, but assume it remains focused on power plant development at least into 1943.
2. The British research was slow to take off, remaining at a theoretical or academic level into 1941. This was in part from skepticism, part from priority to other physics projects like Radar, and partly early miscalculations for energy yield. Assume the question remains hypothetical into 1943 or later.
3. The French project was cut short in June 1940. A Brit version of Operation PAPERCLIP brought some of the physicists & research material from France to the UK.
4. The German research was very misguided and nothing need change.
5. Ditto for the Italians, and in the desertion of a physicist or two and general lack of resources.
6. The Soviet project was also stalled at the lab bench level. Exactly how far along they were on theory is not clear to me. It appears technical details from the US & UK enabled the Soviet research to accelerate by some years, but I lack reliable sources there.
7. Japans research was split up like in Germany & does not seem to have transitioned beyond the lab bench level by 1945.
So, lacking a viable US or British weapon project & clear understanding of the feasibility until at least 1943, or later, how seriously will anyone pursue this post 1945? How far off track would the research be & at various levels of interest how long will it take. What are the political effects?
The basis
1. The USN project started as a power source research project. I dont know if any of the research pointed to atomic weapons when it was rolled into the Manhatten Project in 1942, but assume it remains focused on power plant development at least into 1943.
2. The British research was slow to take off, remaining at a theoretical or academic level into 1941. This was in part from skepticism, part from priority to other physics projects like Radar, and partly early miscalculations for energy yield. Assume the question remains hypothetical into 1943 or later.
3. The French project was cut short in June 1940. A Brit version of Operation PAPERCLIP brought some of the physicists & research material from France to the UK.
4. The German research was very misguided and nothing need change.
5. Ditto for the Italians, and in the desertion of a physicist or two and general lack of resources.
6. The Soviet project was also stalled at the lab bench level. Exactly how far along they were on theory is not clear to me. It appears technical details from the US & UK enabled the Soviet research to accelerate by some years, but I lack reliable sources there.
7. Japans research was split up like in Germany & does not seem to have transitioned beyond the lab bench level by 1945.
So, lacking a viable US or British weapon project & clear understanding of the feasibility until at least 1943, or later, how seriously will anyone pursue this post 1945? How far off track would the research be & at various levels of interest how long will it take. What are the political effects?