Blue Skies in Camelot (Continued): An Alternate 80s and Beyond
- Thread starter President_Lincoln
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Rest in Peace Mrs. Carter. Like your husband you blazed a trail of public service, kindness, compassion and decency in a world that seems to have short supply of all three. May the angels above look after you.
My thoughts also go to Jimmy Carter who has lost his soulmate🥺😭
My thoughts also go to Jimmy Carter who has lost his soulmate🥺😭
Rest in Peace to First Lady Carter. By all accounts one of the kindest, most generous people ever to live in the White House. President Carter will likewise be in our thoughts as well.
I just found this on YouTube geniuses on what could've been The Beatles Reunion on Live Aid in 1985. By the time we arrived in 1985 ITTL Mr. President, hope this suggestion of mine be added and we universally agree here geniuses that they would've been memorable as Queen performed IOTL as well. They might be appeared on MTV Unplugged and would attract new listeners like Generation X ITTL.
For each of the elections ITTL, I generally consider a myriad of factors when determining the victor. The Thirteen "Keys to the White House" are one such tool. While I do take narrative potential into account, I generally try to keep elections somewhat realistic and grounded by the laws of cause and effect.
ITTL's 1976 was an election which saw an unpopular incumbent, widely blamed for stagflation, also struggle with a highly unpopular war in Cambodia. Bush was (as per OTL) an infamously bad campaigner. He lacked "the vision thing", leaving him to see himself more as an administrator than a political leader. Mo Udall was an energetic, charismatic challenger who promised peace in foreign affairs and renewed economic investment at home.
Well that's cool. I just whipped this up. How many keys were going for Poppy Bush in 1976?
Thanks for the wikibox! It looks great 👍
Let's go through the 13 Keys for 76...
1. Midterm Gains - Bush. The GOP did actually gain a few seats in the House of Representatives in the 74 midterms.
2. Primary Contest - Udall. Bush faced a fierce primary challenge from Phyllis Schlafly.
3. Incumbency Advantage - Bush. Bush was the incumbent.
4. No significant Third Party Challenge - Bush.
5. Short Term Economy - Udall. The economy was in the doldrums of the Great Recession in 1976. This severely hurt Bush.
6. Long term Economy - Udall. Bush and even before him, Romney, were blamed (probably unfairly) for "ruining" the prosperity of the Kennedy years.
7. Able to affect major policy change - Udall. Bush famously disdained domestic policy and refused to campaign for conservative priorities, making him unpopular with the GOP base.
8. Social Unrest - Udall. The anti-war protests against involvement in Cambodia really hurt Bush's image.
9. Major scandal? - Udall. Bush's image was tarnished when he was caught up in the Hoover Affair. He was revealed to have been having an affair with a staffer.
10. Foreign/Military Failure - Udall. The Cambodian War was pretty unpopular.
11. Foreign/Military success - Bush. The Walkers Point Accords were probably the one great achievement of Bush's time in office.
12. Incumbent charisma - Udall. Bush is not exactly a magnetic personality. He often comes off as aloof and out of touch.
13. Challenger's charisma - Udall. Udall is charming and witty, which helped give the American people hope.
So... In total
Bush - 4 keys
Udall - 9 keys
That's a recipe for a Udall landslide, in my opinion. I think that, if anything, the GOP were lucky to get the results they did in 76 here.
Keys to the 1980 Election
Keys for 1980 (in my opinion):
1. Midterm Gains - Toss Up. The Democrats gained a seat in the Senate, but the GOP gained seats in the House. Call it a draw.
2. Primary Contest - Reagan. Bob Kennedy had to campaign hard for the Democratic nomination.
3. Incumbent's advantage - Reagan. With Mo Udall forced to stand aside, the Democrats lose the incumbent's advantage.
4. No significant Third Party Challenge - Kennedy. Though a third-party usually benefits the challenger, rather than the incumbent, most of Anderson's support ITTL is coming from disaffected Romney Republicans, drawing support from Reagan.
5. Short term economy - Kennedy. Though unemployment remains high, inflation is finally starting to come under control. Udall hasn't quite gotten his recovery off the ground, but the people seem to trust the Democrats more on the economy.
6. Long term economy - Kennedy. Again, the Democrats' domestic policies are more popular. RFK seems like the man with a real plan to fix the ailing economy.
7. Able to affect policy change - Kennedy. Under Udall, the Democrats managed to pass Universal Healthcare by expanding Medicare, took on the fossil fuel industry, and delivered on numerous other progressive agenda items. Kennedy will no doubt benefit from those achievements.
8. Social Unrest - Kennedy. No major social Unrest here.
9. Major scandal? - N/A. No major scandals in the 1980 election, really.
10. Foreign/Military Failure - Reagan. The Udall administration is more or less universally seen as "too dovish" or "soft against the communists". If Kennedy wants to win in 1980, he needs to show his renowned toughness.
11. Foreign/Military Success - Reagan. Again, the Democrats just do not seem to have their act together on foreign policy. The failure of the SALT treaty and Andropov's removal by the hardliners seem to support Reagan's hawkish stance.
12. Charismatic incumbent - Kennedy. Probably the most beloved Democrat in the country (except his elder brother), RFK has the party faithful behind him absolutely.
13. Charismatic challenger - Reagan. Witty. Sunny. Forever optimistic. It's hard to deny "The Great Communicator's" skills as a retail politician.
In total:
Kennedy - 6 Keys
Reagan - 5 Keys
Toss Up/N/A - 2 Keys
Heading into 1980, in my opinion, the race will be very close, with Kennedy having a very slight edge that is well within the margin of error. Kennedy will need to run a spirited campaign, do well in the debates, and strike the right balance between celebrating Udall's achievements while distancing himself from Udall's shortcomings.
As for HW's legacy ITTL... Generally, most people do see him as a mix of his OTL self, Carter (Walkers Point being TTL's Camp David Accords), and a bit of Nixon (given his support for Operation Condor and general foreign policy moves, like normalizing relations with China and visiting Beijing.
I just wanna say, your whole series inspired me to get into writing Alternate History myself, I currently have a timeline I'm cooking up that I'll make it a campaign trail mod. Might write something more about it on this website.
Fantastic wikibox! So well done 👏👏 Maybe do a similar one for Vice President Reagan?
Brilliant breakdown of the factors both internal and external that can make or break a President's re-election. I expect over time strategists will write books and policy papers on what worked and didn't work for President Bush's campaign in 1976 ITTL.
Maybe should wait for the results of the 1980 election in case he wins.