"...between his efforts to both avoid war and prepare the US for it and then his reinvention of American diplomacy against the forces of isolationism in the 1920s during his second tenure, Garrison's status as one of America's finest - if not the finest - Secretaries of State with his near-eleven cumulative years in the office is generally seen as well deserved. Even then, no man, certainly not a chief diplomat, is entirely without mistakes, and in the wake of the war crisis of 1910 he made possibly his gravest one.
It was broadly consensus in Washington both within the administration and, increasingly, on Capitol Hill and the ranks of the military that the status quo was no longer sustainable. Bliss-Blackburn had been the sighting of a warship on the horizon to the Kidnap Crisis's shot across the bow; even instinctively isolationist and pacifist Midwesterners had come around to there needing to be a firmer line taken with the Confederacy and Hearst's decision to militarize the Ohio was met with broad bipartisan approval, to the point that the biggest complaint amongst some Liberal hawks in New England was that he hadn't militarized the Chesapeake Bay and started a war. Part and parcel with the "Policy of Departure," as Garrison termed it in a famous memorandum disseminated throughout the State Department that September, was that the United States would readdress and redevelop a comprehensive foreign policy that did not view the Confederacy and the Latin Republics in isolation but as part of a whole; he deliberately compared and contrasted his initiative to that of John Hay's continentalist program in the 1880s, though now it was about defense and responsive counter-escalation rather than desired cooperation.
[1] This was a complete departure from the past twenty years of the "European program" in the Americas, where starting under Bayard in 1889 and then continuing under Hoar, Allison and then Bliss the United States had treated its Hemispheric neighbors on an individual basis, as it would European states, and did not have a single policy in place for all continental affairs.
The crux of the Departure was placing a new ambassador in Richmond. The common view was that as the Confederate States were the key antagonist of the decade-long rise in Hemispheric tensions, it would be the US policy towards the Confederacy that would be "hardened" first and foremost. In the same Departure Memorandum, Garrison praised the President's decision to militarize the Ohio and outlined that "all decisions henceforth shall be built upon that critical foundation of international affairs." Biographers and historians have ascribed Garrison's strategy to Hearst's own view that dialogue with Richmond would only be possible if the Confederate government understood that every American statement of policy could and, in the end, would be backed up by force, but that said dialogue should be designed to buy the diplomatically isolated (save Argentina) United States. To that end, Garrison needed a "head-knocker," in the words of War Secretary Louis Haffen, and he found one in Robert Lansing.
Lansing was not a diplomat by trade but rather had served nearly five years as the State Department Counsel and before that had been part of a number of treaty negotiation committees and tribunals; he was a wealthy, conservative New York corporate attorney from the right wing of the Democratic Party who had nonetheless cultivated good relations with the "Tigers" who studded Hearst's second-term Cabinet and had been an able ally for Hearst despite his own wife being the daughter of a prominent longtime Liberal diplomat, which had served as his introduction to State. As Counsel, Lansing had been recently deeply involved in various treaty negotiations under both Bliss and Garrison and was thus considered to be among the most well-versed on the issues confronting the Hemispheric geostrategy of the United States from a diplomatic and legalistic angle, and Garrison particularly valued his aggressiveness and keen intellect.
Hearst was skeptical of Lansing's appointment, though not for ideological reasons; despite being a blustery man who oft shot from the hip when it came to public pronouncements, he took Garrison's outlining of a comprehensive strategy perhaps even more seriously than his own Secretary of State did and preferred appointing the decorated career diplomat Henry Perceval Dodge, who had served a variety of posts throughout his career including stings in increasingly important Centroamerica as well as Peru, and had earlier in the spring returned to Washington to form and run the State Department's new Latin American bureau, the first steps towards a broad and singular regional policy. Garrison, no stranger to backroom politicking, recruited a who's-who of Tigers and other key Democrats he trusted to lobby in favor of Lansing, arguing that Dodge was needed in that key role to essentially serve as chief coordinator for the entire Americas, and Hearst finally relented to that line of logic and offered the job to Lansing.
Garrison was under the impression that he was getting eyes and ears in Richmond that were entirely in alignment with his own views and would do as instructed out of a lack of initiative, but he was grievously wrong on that front. Lansing was a fiercely independent man and had already had quite a bit of experiment behind the scenes in Washington trying to bend policy in his preferred directions, often to little avail but with game attempts nonetheless. He stood out in the Hearst administration for the heterodoxy of his views, not just on domestic matters but on international ones, too. Not only was he possibly the Democratic Party's most ardent Anglophile, which set him strongly apart from the ferociously anti-British and pro-Irish baseline of the rest of the administration, but he was strongly Germanophobic to the point of conspiratorial thinking, viewing Germany's acquisition of the former Dutch West Indies, intervention in Venezuela and even amiable participation as a silent partner in the Nicaragua Canal project as part of a vast Teutonic plot to upend Anglo-American hegemony in the Americas.
[2] Future Speaker of the House George Norris remarked some years later that he suspected that one reason why Garrison was so eager to get Lansing to Richmond was that Lansing's connections to the Tiger faction made him effectively unfireable and it was best to get him away from a President who diametrically disagreed with his worldview in a role where his "head-knocking" and stubbornness could actually do some good.
In Richmond, of course, Lansing had little ability to direct Washington's relations with either London or Germany, but his independent streak and penchant for contradicting stances from up above he disagreed with found fertile soil to bloom. Even by the standards of a time in which ambassadors had remarkable leeway for setting policy, he still managed to well overstep the expected bounds; Lansing spent most of his time trying to ingratiate himself with the British embassy or undercut the German position in the Confederacy, apparently under the impression that doing so was the best way to bring the British around to the US point of view, even if it meant formulating his own foreign policy from whole cloth from his ambassadorial perch. Whatever the reasons, Lansing's improvisation and freewheeling approach served his administration poorly. Confederate policymakers, culturally attuned to hiding behind flowery words, bristled at his brusqueness, while Lansing consistently failed to properly deliver Washington's line while manipulating information he felt went against his preferred narratives in dispatches back to Foggy Bottom.
At a critical time where proper diplomatic channels with clear communication could have cooled tensions significantly, Lansing's incoherent approach left both sides confused and the picture muddled; Hearst and Garrison were on sound footing in pursuing a line of stern public rhetoric and policy while seeking off-ramps behind the scenes, only for Lansing to obfuscate..."
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Bound for Bloodshed: The Road to the Great American War [3]
[1] Think of this as "we're just taking the somewhat naive, optimistic view of the Americas as a whole from the Blaine years and dousing it with some much-needed hard-edged realism"
[2] This is all, for what its worth, true.
Robert Lansing was the US version of guys like Poincare/Grey/Hartwig who manipulated foreign policy to their own ends from within the diplomatic service. He only wound up in his OTL position of Secretary of State because WJB had the temerity to disagree with Ol' Woodrow and tell him things he didn't want to hear, which is curiously enough how guys like Lindley Garrison and, eventually, Lansing himself wound up out of a job, too. Since Hearst is a bit of a pastiche of Teddy/Wilson with a lot of Wilson-era figures getting moved around to different jobs, Lansing made sense to me in this role, where he could be just as much of a backroom grenade
[3] My attempt at taking a stab at writing something
Sleepwalkers-ish, since these kinds of shenanigans were commonplace in European diplomacy in the early 1910s and, well...