In the ASB forum, there is an ongoing thread regarding the impact of a seriously improved German U-boat campaign. The thread is as follows:
Given the premise, some have suggested that Germany might actually hold out and get a white peace. I doubt it and generated some discussion by pointing out that if Germany can delay its surrender a few months, it gets nuked instead of Japan.
My question is assuming that due to a better U-boat war, Germany is still holding out in the summer of 1945. D-Day hasn't happened yet and the Soviets are still in Byelorussia, Ukraine, and the Baltics by August 1945. Given those factors, will Germany surrender after being hit with multiple nuclear weapons or will Germany hold on until physically occupied?
Follow on, roughly how many nuclear weapons would be needed to get Germany to surrender, 5, 10, 50, 500?
The basic assumption is that the U-boat war is even more successful than OTL from the very beginning and this means less lend-lease to the Soviets and UK and less Allied forces overall. Thus the Western Allies are roughly a year behind OTL. Germany is still getting bombed and the U--boats are still a menace.
My question is assuming that due to a better U-boat war, Germany is still holding out in the summer of 1945. D-Day hasn't happened yet and the Soviets are still in Byelorussia, Ukraine, and the Baltics by August 1945. Given those factors, will Germany surrender after being hit with multiple nuclear weapons or will Germany hold on until physically occupied?
Follow on, roughly how many nuclear weapons would be needed to get Germany to surrender, 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, or 100-500?
My own take is despite estimates that the overall bombing campaign being the equivalent in explosive value of 400 nuclear weapons, that does not mean it has the same shock and psychological impact of 400 nuclear detonations. I think they can be driven to surrender, especially if Hitler is nuked and dies with Berlin.
Note: I am not trying to argue the likelihood of the stated scenario. I think it would be pretty difficult for Germany to manage that kind of delay. I am just trying to get an idea of how many nukes it would need to get Germany to surrender if it did not yet have Allied troops on German soil when the bombs became available.
Given the premise, some have suggested that Germany might actually hold out and get a white peace. I doubt it and generated some discussion by pointing out that if Germany can delay its surrender a few months, it gets nuked instead of Japan.
My question is assuming that due to a better U-boat war, Germany is still holding out in the summer of 1945. D-Day hasn't happened yet and the Soviets are still in Byelorussia, Ukraine, and the Baltics by August 1945. Given those factors, will Germany surrender after being hit with multiple nuclear weapons or will Germany hold on until physically occupied?
Follow on, roughly how many nuclear weapons would be needed to get Germany to surrender, 5, 10, 50, 500?
The basic assumption is that the U-boat war is even more successful than OTL from the very beginning and this means less lend-lease to the Soviets and UK and less Allied forces overall. Thus the Western Allies are roughly a year behind OTL. Germany is still getting bombed and the U--boats are still a menace.
My question is assuming that due to a better U-boat war, Germany is still holding out in the summer of 1945. D-Day hasn't happened yet and the Soviets are still in Byelorussia, Ukraine, and the Baltics by August 1945. Given those factors, will Germany surrender after being hit with multiple nuclear weapons or will Germany hold on until physically occupied?
Follow on, roughly how many nuclear weapons would be needed to get Germany to surrender, 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, or 100-500?
My own take is despite estimates that the overall bombing campaign being the equivalent in explosive value of 400 nuclear weapons, that does not mean it has the same shock and psychological impact of 400 nuclear detonations. I think they can be driven to surrender, especially if Hitler is nuked and dies with Berlin.
Note: I am not trying to argue the likelihood of the stated scenario. I think it would be pretty difficult for Germany to manage that kind of delay. I am just trying to get an idea of how many nukes it would need to get Germany to surrender if it did not yet have Allied troops on German soil when the bombs became available.