French "depose" Alexander VI

[Tocomocho]

In 1494 King Charles VIII of France invaded Italy with his claim to the throne of Naples as a pretext. Unable to fight, Alexander VI holed himself in the Castel Sant'Angelo while the French army occupied Rome. Cardinal Della Rovere (future Pope Julius II) then pressed for a commission with the support of the Sforza, Colonna and Orsini families that supported the French, in order to inquire on the validity of Alexander VI's election and rule and depose him.

However, Alexander weaseled his way out and cut a deal with Charles VIII himself, crowning him King of Naples and naming a French cardinal of his choosing.

So, what if he didn't?

 

[LSCatilina]

Deposing the pope would have been something risky for Charles VIII, not in matter of direct danger, but it would certainly weaken the validation of his claim on Angevine holdings.
If Alexander is killed, Spanish kingdoms could toy with the idea of supporting a candidate for papacy, but it would be a short issue unless they manage to take back Rome and hold a council.

The most important consequence would be a major French or Spanish influence (depending on who's winning the war) on Papacy, which would have still been less important than the Imperial or Capetian take over in the Middle Ages.

In the case of french victory, this influence would have to be nuanced by the importance of roman families power that would have succeeded to impose a pope from their ranks and along their lines.

 

[Tocomocho]

To be honest I wasn't expecting Alexander VI to die. Just that the plotters would keep him in Castel Sant'Angelo when he actually decided to get out.

Of course if the French decided to break him out with their fancy cannons, Alexander could end crushed under a pile of rubble. But that would be an even more PR disaster for France than what they have already done is.

Without harming the Pope, the French will just claim that his deposition is entirely the work of the Roman Curia, even if it would have not happened had it not been for the French presence and their permision. They would publicly advertize the charges of simony, lechery, nepotism, etc that Alexander VI was really guilty of. The funny thing is that the rest of the world won't buy it and accuse France of making them up to justify their invasion of Italy.

One is tempted to imagine that there would be a grand anti-French coalition formed by Spain, the HRE, England and maybe Venice. However, without Borgia diplomacy the French grip on northern Italy could be stronger, and make their hold in Naples stronger in turn. Could Milan, Florence, Ferrara, etc remain neutral or even pro-French? Bear in mind, the Papal States as a whole, now likely under *Julius II, are.

Could Savonarola get more influential? And what of the Borgia kids? Juan is in Spain I think. But Cesare and Lucrezia are in Rome, out of Sant'Angelo.

 

[Sanderford]

However, Alexander weaseled his way out and cut a deal with Charles VIII himself, crowning him King of Naples and naming a French cardinal of his choosing.

So, what if he didn't?

The brutal pragmatist in me says that Charles VIII would simply have deposed & killed Alexander VI, leading to a Papal Conclave in which Cardinal Della Rovere would likely become the next Pope.

However, another burst of pragmatism tells me that King Charles would have had rather serious problems if he had killed the Vicar of Christ. His own men may have refused to do the deed. Other monarchs and peoples may have been stirred against him, and used the action as a pretext to attack down the road. Saying "our enemy is a Godless man who has murdered the Bishop of Rome!" can have some real weight.

Even so, in the end most likely Alexander VI is a dead man if he doesn't make King Charles a deal, and that leads to a whole new can of worms in Europe.

 

[Tocomocho]

There are plenty of times where killing is not the pragmatic choice. As I said, there was already a movement within the Church to depose Alexander VI by legal means, so Charles needs no nothing but allow it to happen. Harming the (incumbent) Pope in any way will just put everybody in and outside France against him.

It also breaks with Charles' previous conduct during the war in Italy. He slaughtered a couple of towns after the garrison surrendered, but the leaders of states 'on the road' like Florence were just let go and replaced by whoever wanted to be a puppet or at least friendly to the French.