French victory in the War of Spanish Succession (2024 ed)

[Atrahasis]

I was pretty surprised about how old the threads I found about this are and that they don't try to enter the topic in depth as this war is extremely important, I'd say. You could make the argument that France won the war as Philip kept the throne of Spain, but France didn't gain anything in the short term, instead lost territories in the north like Tournai along with a lot of its population and the alliance with Spain collapsed right after the war. Basically france wins at Blenheim (the thread is kind of about this battle, but this directly results in a French victory so the title still works), so this is to see how much may change this battle in the short and long term.

First, immediate effects. Eugene retreats to reorganise and unite forces with prince Leopold. Marlborough is very likely to die or be captured, due to the tactic he used, and even if he escapes, he will have to return to England and won't receive command in the Netherlands again; there exists the possibility that he's sent to Spain, but I'm not sure. Bavaria is secured in the short term.

Austria, even having Eugene won't make it I'd say, without a coordinated offensive with the Anglo-Dutch army Bavaria won't fall after a single decisive battle, France isn't even forced to give battle and their ability to support the Hungarian rebels will only increase with time. So, how much could Austria actually lose? I'd say Hungary's independence at least is secured, it's borders are in question, Austria might keep Pressburg as it's a threat to its capital; Bavaria should receive something, Tyrol most likely; but is there a possibility of an independent Bohemia or it is too much?

Italy, Turin is doomed, there's no one to delay, nor relieve the siege of Turin, even in the case that France performs in the worst way possible in the Bavarian front the siege of Turin would still start months earlier and Eugene would make his descent months later. Basically, Italy is secured for the Bourbons. How much will France push for? Savoy and Nice are the logical choice, but what will happen with the duchy? Will it become some kind of French vassal? And Milan, will Spain keep it or will it cede it to France? I guess Spain will just keep Naples, Sicily and Sardinia.

The Spanish Netherlands, I think at least a partial French victory in the region is assured. Victories like Ramillies and Oudenaarde were only possible because of Marlborough's forced marches and there's no way Marlborough keeps his position there is he loses Blenheim, distrust between English and Dutch forces will also grow, deteriorating their performance. So, what's the future for the Netherlands? In case of a partial victory Bavarian Netherlands could be possible, or maybe another candidate, along with Dutch forts in the region, but in a total victory in the front? Will Spain keep them or cede it to France?

North America, this is interesting and is often ignored as a front when regarding a French victory in the WOSS. An early French victory (before 1710 at least), would mean that Nova Scotia wouldn't have fallen to the British, this is big; Halifax would become the arguably most important British port (strategically) and best fortress in North America for the century. Not getting it puts Britain in a considerably worse position in the region compared to OTL. Might French North America survive or even expand more than OTL given the state of thing in the region?

France, I previously said that there's the possibility that Milan and the Spanish Netherlands could become French, but there's more about this. I think France keeps Tournai, Ypres and those territories lost at Rastatt; while also annexing Lorraine; I don't think they will try to push for the Rhineland in this war. A shorter war could possibly butterfly the death of the petit Dauphin, which is it's own topic. The alliance with Spain might survive the war and even longer. I think that since France would now have a set of alliances (Hungary, Bavaria and possibly Spain and Austria) and less powerful threats it could focus much more in its navy, being able to compete with Britain.

Like this has even more implications in other regions or when trying to look at long term changes. Like, would this affect the outcome of the Great Northern War? Would an uninterrupted union of Spain and Southern Italy affect the culture of the second? Would the reforms of Nueva Planta be applied in Italy? Is it possible that we see a Bavarian as HRE and how could this affect the institution? Might this affect the development of the various East India Companies?

 

[Atrahasis]

I'm quite surprised of having no takers on this thread, I mean, I think this could literally assure French dominance for more than a century, the consquences are huge.

 

[Hastings]

I doubt this results in French dominance for a century. They will be in incontestable position for a bit, but the Spanish and French branches were shaky at coordination. Also Frances armies stagnated and their quality declined in the following decades, which may not happen, but no reason it can't. It means probably a more meddling foreign policy. I suspect eventually there will be another grand coalition that wins.

 

[Tupolev0247]

I was always surprised that more TLs are not exploring this possibility, but going into its consequences:

- France after the war will have an uncontested position on the continent (at least for 40-50 years), fewer dead Bourbons and more money to use in North America or in challenging the East India Company.
- The British will probably be in serious economic trouble for a while and go into a survival mode where they ignore the continent until a power comes along to prop up (Russia and Prussia) while trying to keep France out of India.
- The Dutch, besides being economically ruined, are going to be known from now on to play at the same level of neutrality as Switzerland with the French Netherlands/Bourbon Belgium right next door.
The Wittelsbachs are receiving an empire in total chaos and are rethinking whether supporting France was their best idea.
- Spain in general is much better off than OTL, has more manpower, has no commitments to the continent and is focused on its colonial empire.
- Sardinia, Naples and Sicily should be given special treatment and in principle their language and culture should be respected as an integral part of Spain, although I can see independence movements emerging in more modern times as with Catalonia.
- Philip V will probably not marry Isabella Farnese after the death of Maria Luisa of Savoy.

 

[alexmilman]

I doubt this results in French dominance for a century. They will be in incontestable position for a bit, but the Spanish and French branches were shaky at coordination. Also Frances armies stagnated and their quality declined in the following decades, which may not happen, but no reason it can't. It means probably a more meddling foreign policy. I suspect eventually there will be another grand coalition that wins.

And, even in the case of a realistic victory (no blitzkrieg of any type), French economy is on a brick of disaster (IIRC, at some point Louis had to melt the silver tableware to get more coin) and it is not quite clear how much and how far its influence could be spread outside of the immediate sphere of influence. IMO, the French interference into the GNW is extremely unlikely (all the way to almost unrealistic) so yes, the diplomatic meddling, but it requires either money or realistic backing by a force.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

I'm quite surprised of having no takers on this thread, I mean, I think this could literally assure French dominance for more than a century, the consquences are huge.

I was always surprised that more TLs are not exploring this possibility, but going into its consequences:

- France after the war will have an uncontested position on the continent (at least for 40-50 years), fewer dead Bourbons and more money to use in North America or in challenging the East India Company.
- The British will probably be in serious economic trouble for a while and go into a survival mode where they ignore the continent until a power comes along to prop up (Russia and Prussia) while trying to keep France out of India.

Gar48 started a thread in November 2021 (still going strong as of today) entitled “What Alternate History Ideas You Wish Were Used More Often ?” Part of my post in that thread was about one aspect of this topic that Atrahasis raises that I would like to see as an ATL.

I would enjoy timelines about France maintaining control of Canada for a lengthy amount of time much as Great Britain did in OTL, either by never losing Canada at all or recovering Canada at the end of the American Revolutionary War or during Napoleon’s time.

I would like to see timelines based on France and Spain being under one ruler at the time of the War of the Spanish Succession (“The Pyrenees no longer exist” as Louis XIV supposedly said), much like how Emperor Charles V, by ruling them both, had Austria and Spain to do his bidding in the 1500s. Such a Franco-Spanish superpower could wreak untold havoc all over the world.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

I doubt this results in French dominance for a century. They will be in incontestable position for a bit, but the Spanish and French branches were shaky at coordination. Also Frances armies stagnated and their quality declined in the following decades, which may not happen, but no reason it can't. It means probably a more meddling foreign policy. I suspect eventually there will be another grand coalition that wins.

Tbh, I would argue that was most of the fault of Louis XV who ruined what his father had build and then delivered a kingdom in dire straits to his son and with a messy foreign policy because somehow allying with Austria was a good move, a France that can avoid OTL Louis XV and having won on the War of Spanish succession and secured many of it's borders(Spain, Netherlands, Italy) will likely keep on going as the big boys in Europe for a while more.

 

[FalconHonour]

I don't know the period very well, but I don't know if I agree with your suggestion that the Americas will go French. If the British aren't tied up in Europe, they won't be taxing their American colonies as ruinously to pay for the war, which would probably ease tensions in Boston etc, especially if the French are busy with their new territories and can't support the Americans in their Revolution.

Moreover, a more successful France will probably stop the rise of internal tensions, meaning the French Revolution may be delayed or even butterflied.

Also not sure how much Blenheim will really damage Marlborough's reputation, particularly if he dies, because his wife is still Queen Anne's favourite and his death could easily be spun as that of a martyr for the cause.

 

[Tupolev0247]

Things are going to get interesting after 1715.

France will definitely be better off than OTL, the question is which Louis takes the throne after Louis XIV and for how long? I think they change quite a bit between a reign of Louis Grand Dauphin or Louis Petit Dauphin after Louis XIV, although I don't think either will reach the level of disaster that is Louis XV OTL.

I wonder, who would Philip marry after Marie Louise's death in this scenario and if Luis avoided smallpox?

 

[Atrahasis]

I doubt this results in French dominance for a century. They will be in incontestable position for a bit, but the Spanish and French branches were shaky at coordination. Also Frances armies stagnated and their quality declined in the following decades, which may not happen, but no reason it can't. It means probably a more meddling foreign policy. I suspect eventually there will be another grand coalition that wins.

It's hard to say that their armies stagnated. Like see the Austrian succession, I'd say that they even overperformed in the Netherlands with Fontenoy, Lauffey and Rocoux. You could argue that it was the case in the seven years war and you would have a point, but it was not that big of a deal; they definitely overperformed in the colonial fronts, in Europe they definitely underperformed, but that was the case after Rossbach, when they started to put more effort in the colonial fronts.

And, even in the case of a realistic victory (no blitzkrieg of any type), French economy is on a brick of disaster (IIRC, at some point Louis had to melt the silver tableware to get more coin) and it is not quite clear how much and how far its influence could be spread outside of the immediate sphere of influence. IMO, the French interference into the GNW is extremely unlikely (all the way to almost unrealistic) so yes, the diplomatic meddling, but it requires either money or realistic backing by a force.

Yeah, you're right, the idea of France interfering in the GNW is a big stretch. But I would say that at least Prussia making peace with France early at the prospect of an impossible victory could be bad for Sweden. Either way, the French economy is probably as bad as British, that carried both the Dutch and Austrian finances; the difference is that this time France benefitted from the conflict while Britain did not. Basically no one is in a good position economically, so France would still be on top.

I don't know the period very well, but I don't know if I agree with your suggestion that the Americas will go French. If the British aren't tied up in Europe, they won't be taxing their American colonies as ruinously to pay for the war, which would probably ease tensions in Boston etc, especially if the French are busy with their new territories and can't support the Americans in their Revolution.

Moreover, a more successful France will probably stop the rise of internal tensions, meaning the French Revolution may be delayed or even butterflied.

Also not sure how much Blenheim will really damage Marlborough's reputation, particularly if he dies, because his wife is still Queen Anne's favourite and his death could easily be spun as that of a martyr for the cause.

I mean, I don't think that in any way France could conquer the 13 colonies, their population is just too much. But eventually taking Ontario, Newfoundland and possibly Maine; while keeping control of the Great Lakes is possible. It's certainly interesting to think how could the 13 colonies develop in this situation, the French will appear as the greatest threat no doubt, so I don't see them rebelling; but Britain might give them more liberties.

The French revolution as we know it will definitely be butterflied away. I mean, enlightenment literature itself will change, the perspectives of Montesquieu and Voltaire will change in a world were France is the uncontested hegemon. Like, it's really interesting how literature changes in alternate history, famous authors will certainly have different ideas with a different world, while other ideas might become more popular than those which became popular OTL.

Marlborough will definitely still be influential and might forge his military career in other way, but he won't be given command in the Netherlands just because the Dutch would hate his guts.

Things are going to get interesting after 1715.

France will definitely be better off than OTL, the question is which Louis takes the throne after Louis XIV and for how long? I think they change quite a bit between a reign of Louis Grand Dauphin or Louis Petit Dauphin after Louis XIV, although I don't think either will reach the level of disaster that is Louis XV OTL.

I wonder, who would Philip marry after Marie Louise's death in this scenario and if Luis avoided smallpox?

I think that the Grand Dauphin would just go with his father's internal policies, his time on the throne won't be long though. While the Petit Dauphin I think will try to implement the polysynody, like Philip of Orleans, it will fail; now it depends on if he tries to keep forcing it after its failure or just keep working with the previous system with progressive and slow reforms.

- Spain in general is much better off than OTL, has more manpower, has no commitments to the continent and is focused on its colonial empire.
- Sardinia, Naples and Sicily should be given special treatment and in principle their language and culture should be respected as an integral part of Spain, although I can see independence movements emerging in more modern times as with Catalonia.

The situation in Spain seems really interesting to me, not needing to focus on Italy gives them so much room for growth. They lost Oran during the war and Ceuta was under siege, if they invest what they invested in the OTL quadruple alliance in North Africa, it's possible for them to expand there.

 

[Atrahasis]

Do you think it's possible for this to affect the Venetian-Ottoman war of 1714? Both Spain and France have an interest on supporting Venice, since both would want to extend influence over Italy. Spain would have recently lost Oran and Mers el Kebir and would want to retake them. Hungary would have an interest on preventing an Ottoman revival and it would be a French ally, so France might intervene. Keeping Morea or even extending might keep Venice as a minor while significant power, instead of a Habsburg vassal, which is interesting.

 

[unprincipled peter]

A drastically shorter WoSS with a French victory has major butterflies. The death of le Grand Dauphin can easily (and likely) be avoided, which then likely butterflies the le Petit Dauphin/wife/elder son die-off a year later (I've read they caught the measles while traveling in relation to mourning le Grand's death). This avoids the regency period, and Spain/France remain in alliance. The death of Philip's first wife also can be easily butterflied. The War of Quadruple Alliance is butterflied. The Brits either don't take Gibraltar, or are forced to give it up, butterflying the Anglo-Spanish War of late 1720's. With no Elizabeth Farnese, there's no OTL Carlos III to claim Parma, and Naples/Sicily/Sardinia may well be in Spanish hands already.
In North America, France retains a better position, and still has a claim to Rupert's Land.
France emerges from the war in much better economic shape, and in a dominant position. Their approach to the following decades will be different.
Joseph I of Habsburg may not die. Either he, or Charles, may sire surviving sons, butterflying WoAS.
The entire 18th century is very likely unrecognizable.
New France has a good chance of remaining French. OTL French and Indian War/7YW will be butterflied. They may have a corollary, but the situations are going to be very different.

Pretty much, forget everything you know about history post WoSS.