Imperial Russian Superpower

Mathalamus · Oct 30, 2011

Ok, guys, i am starting a new, unrelated (for now) timeline.

basically, after Napoleons defeat in Russia, the Russian Emperor realizes that the state may be vulnerable in the future, and decides to take steps to modernize the nation.

what do you think will happen next? Remember, Russia may be a little slow at first.

Warsie · Oct 30, 2011

Industrialization and a more 'european' orientation of Russia as that is where the biggest threat is in. Also education and an earlier freeing of the serfs. Russia was REALLY backwards in that.

Mathalamus · Oct 31, 2011

Warsie said:
Industrialization and a more 'european' orientation of Russia as that is where the biggest threat is in. Also education and an earlier freeing of the serfs. Russia was REALLY backwards in that.

so Russia will have major issues at first?

Warsie · Oct 31, 2011

Mathalamus said:
so Russia will have major issues at first?

Oh hell yeah. OTL russia had major issues with he problems even when they knew there were problems. Russia was the last to free their serfs

Mathalamus · Oct 31, 2011

wow. Russia really is more behind than i thought. i doubt events will change that much until about 1914 or so. even the russian ottoman wars will be similar.

Elfwine · Oct 31, 2011

I don't know, with a POD in 1815, and Russia intent on modernizing instead of Nicholas I as a rigid control freak conservative, it probably will matter earlier.

It'll be slow and painful, and the faster you try to push things the more painful, but there will be effects sooner than 1914.

Mathalamus · Oct 31, 2011

Elfwine said:
I don't know, with a POD in 1815, and Russia intent on modernizing instead of Nicholas I as a rigid control freak conservative, it probably will matter earlier.

It'll be slow and painful, and the faster you try to push things the more painful, but there will be effects sooner than 1914.

im planning that Russia modernizes faster than it really should, Russia nearly falls apart, but eventually stabilizes and becomes stronger as a result. i beilive that after a century of fast modernization it may be stronger than Germany. (unless it already was, but the huge area and lack of infrastructure limited the strength)

Bartholome de Fonte · Oct 31, 2011

You're going to have plenty of rebellions then, the serfs will find something to be mad over. This would perhaps limit the Russian foreign commitments/expansion as they would be too busy with rebels to say expand more so into Central Asia.

Elfwine · Oct 31, 2011

Mathalamus said:
im planning that Russia modernizes faster than it really should, Russia nearly falls apart, but eventually stabilizes and becomes stronger as a result. i beilive that after a century of fast modernization it may be stronger than Germany. (unless it already was, but the huge area and lack of infrastructure limited the strength)

I don't think, assuming Germany grows at its OTL rate, Russia can surpass Germany by 1915. The gap in all the relevant areas is so huge it is very hard to find a base for it to grow.

Its farm production is extremely inefficient, it is very poor, its production per capita is dismal, the people are largely illiterate...

OTL, it modernized faster than it really should, or at least put too much emphasis on some aspects (such a steel production) and not enough on making a modern society (such as education).

Falastur · Oct 31, 2011

Mathalamus said:
Ok, guys, i am starting a new, unrelated (for now) timeline.

basically, after Napoleons defeat in Russia, the Russian Emperor realizes that the state may be vulnerable in the future, and decides to take steps to modernize the nation.

what do you think will happen next? Remember, Russia may be a little slow at first.

Bear in mind that the Tsars tended to be stubborn (heck, most monarchs were) and for Russia to have triumphed over Napoleon would be seen as a victory for Russian society over the so-called enlightenment of the French. In this day and age a less-advanced society scoring a win over a more-advanced society tended to be used as evidence that the less-advanced society was just as successful a system as being at the forefront of knowledge. Indeed, people entrenched in backwards systems tended to overlook all the disadvantages of their system in order to trumpet their own superiority.

Just something for you to mull over.

Maur · Oct 31, 2011

Novak said:
You're going to have plenty of rebellions then, the serfs will find something to be mad over. This would perhaps limit the Russian foreign commitments/expansion as they would be too busy with rebels to say expand more so into Central Asia.

The problem is the entrenched conservative powers, not the serfs. For example, abolishing serfdom is not so easy when nobility is strong and benefits from it.

Elfwine said:
I don't think, assuming Germany grows at its OTL rate, Russia can surpass Germany by 1915. The gap in all the relevant areas is so huge it is very hard to find a base for it to grow.

Its farm production is extremely inefficient, it is very poor, its production per capita is dismal, the people are largely illiterate...

OTL, it modernized faster than it really should, or at least put too much emphasis on some aspects (such a steel production) and not enough on making a modern society (such as education).

Eh. In 1815, there's no Germany, even

But assuming that the ROTW progresses similarily, 100 years is a lot of time, and a lot can change. And it didn't modernize faster than it should, in fact it hardly changed at all until after 1860 or so, and even then it was half-hearted until 1905 gave a boost to the process.

Elfwine · Oct 31, 2011

Maur said:
Eh. In 1815, there's no Germany, even But assuming that the ROTW progresses similarily, 100 years is a lot of time, and a lot can change. And it didn't modernize faster than it should, in fact it hardly changed at all until after 1860 or so, and even then it was half-hearted until 1905 gave a boost to the process.

Well, yeah, but the German states are still ahead.
A lot can change, but Russia is behind in a lot of ways.

As for (not) modernizing faster than it should: True, which is where an early POD helps. But its still focused on some things more than others - it was attempting to develop the power of a modern society without the organization and system of one.

Last of the Stuarts · Oct 31, 2011

Before you can get industrial revolution you need an agrarian one, we would need to see the Russian equivilent of Turnip Townsend.

One Russia can feed itself (and produce an excess) then the towns and cities can grow for manufactoring.

The problem with Russia in OTL was that it seemed to skip over this. Get this right and the number of rebellions will shrink and Russia will be much stronger.

Snake Featherston · Oct 31, 2011

If the Tsars manage to square the circles of significant modernization and reform in an absolute monarchy, by the 20th Century a state encompassing the OTL borders of the Romanov Empire but having all the military modernizations seen in contemporary France or Germany will be a nightmare for its enemies and the best thing that ever happened to its friends. At the very least if Alexander I, for instance, is able to free the serfs, Russia has the chance to start something of an agrarian revolution, if it does that and then transitions into an industrial revolution....

I would hate to be the rulers in states such a Russia would be potentially looking to steal territory from.

In this case whoever succeeds Alexander I will be potentially transitioning from absolute despot to a Napoleon III style constitutional absolutist by the late 19th Century.

Snake Featherston · Oct 31, 2011

Falastur said:
Bear in mind that the Tsars tended to be stubborn (heck, most monarchs were) and for Russia to have triumphed over Napoleon would be seen as a victory for Russian society over the so-called enlightenment of the French. In this day and age a less-advanced society scoring a win over a more-advanced society tended to be used as evidence that the less-advanced society was just as successful a system as being at the forefront of knowledge. Indeed, people entrenched in backwards systems tended to overlook all the disadvantages of their system in order to trumpet their own superiority.

Just something for you to mull over.

At the same time victories over the Ottomans and Napoleon indicate Russia was not all that backward in the Napoleonic era relative to everyone else.

Last of the Stuarts · Oct 31, 2011

Snake Featherston said:
I would hate to be the rulers in states such a Russia would be potentially looking to steal territory from. .

Britain will have the Afganistan border, the Great Game takes on another dimension.
Also China along all its border and the Ottomans.

My feeling is that the Europeans are safe, except the poor Poles. I also feel they would very quickly come into conflict with the Brits over all sorts of issues.

Anglo-Russian war anyone?

Snake Featherston · Oct 31, 2011

Last of the Stuarts said:
Britain will have the Afganistan border, the Great Game takes on another dimension.
Also China along all its border and the Ottomans.

My feeling is that the Europeans are safe, except the poor Poles. I also feel they would very quickly come into conflict with the Brits over all sorts of issues.

Anglo-Russian war anyone?

What could happen is something akin to the alliances formed against OTL Germany but targeted at Russia. Such a Russia, if it goes into Central or East Asia, would also find itself with an obvious pair of enemies in both China *and* Japan. But fighting somewhere around a sixth of the entire planet transformed into a hyperpower, which is what a Russia modernized even to the level of OTL Imperial Germany would be given the total amount of resources just the OTL Tsarist Empire had in terms of potential with a world war is not like fighting a German Empire allied with a bunch of weaker allies and surrounded on both sides. It'd be pretty difficult for any enemies to actually invade the interior of that Russia, and it would be that Russia's enemies with the weaker allies, not Russia.

And a Russia that effectively squares the circle of modernization and the absolute system as established by the Romanovs, as this was where a lot of the problems came in in that even Alexander II, as liberal as a Romanov Tsar got was liberal only insofar as he didn't have to yield any of his political power, is one where the ol' "Play the nationalities against each other" canard is less likely to apply.

MarshalBraginsky · Oct 31, 2011

It would have taken a Russian major defeat in a conflict in order to bring in more reforms.

chornedsnorkack · Oct 31, 2011

Yes, stronger Russia means stronger coalitions against Russia, by rule of balance of power.

Could Russia somehow do better under Alexander I/Nicholas I? What would another person (e. g. Constantine) have done better?

Assume that Russia provokes Crimean War coalition as per OTL. How much better than OTL would Nicholas I have to have done by way of modernization in order to not suffer a clear defeat, and force Turkey and UK to a peace on status quo ante terms (no loss of Sebastopol fortifications or Black Sea fleet, no neutral Aland)?

Mathalamus · Oct 31, 2011

to me, the French invasion of Russia is a defeat. the french only lost cause they didnt adequately prepare their forces, and the russians used a scorched earth policy.

...so Russia won, almost by default, which can be seen as a defeat.