Into the Fire - the "Minor" nations of WW2 strike back
- Thread starter Wings
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Yeah, I do have to wonder if France really ought to fall if they have better luck than OTL during this Blitz.
But it certainly is possible enough that even doing substantially better than OTL they are doomed anyway, and it seems evident that decision has been made by the author already.
Still as on other fronts in this ATL, every bit of incremental attrition the Axis suffers helps the Allies down the road.
Speaking of down the road, aside from tricks the Germans themselves have up their sleeves, I suppose Mussolini is going to strike out of Italy pretty soon too?
That was more insult than injury to France OTL I gather, and here too whenever the Italians do strike it won't be critical--though it does make the idea of evacuating via Mediterranean ports more problematic of course.
OTL Mussolini waited until France was clearly on the ropes and insofar as the Allies have somewhat better performance overall though it doesn't save any nations in Western Europe (counting Norway as not there but in Northern Europe, and apparently Norway will remain only partially free if even that) then I suppose his day late dollar short attack on France will come somewhat later than OTL since it will take longer before France is clearly done for.
Of course a really big butterfly would be, France still falls, but Italy does not strike and remains technically neutral for longer or sits out the war completely. This is hardly likely of course given the nature of Mussolini's relationship with Hitler. Mussolini is surely going to believe, if France is clearly falling anyway, that Hitler is bound to achieve final victory, and so failure to deal himself in on the Axis team actively when it is still early enough to matter would be a way of cutting himself off from Hitler's patronage. It is only the fear the French might not fall and the Entente might once again ultimately prevail that is holding him back, and if France does fall he probably cannot imagine the British sticking it out all by themselves for years let alone ultimately prevailing (with a little help from some friends of course...)
So I suppose, given we have author prophecy assuring us France will fall eventually, it is then inevitable Mussolini will commit to the war on the Axis side.
Which will be bringing us to Greece, and I guess Yugoslavia and Albania, pretty soon I suppose.
I hope at any rate the Allies leave enough in Norway to hold most of what has not fallen yet. One might be blase about it and say, hey, the major populated and richest parts of Norway are already under Nazi control or sure to fall to it even if the Allies were not distracted by Fall Gelbe, so why not throw in the towel on Narvik and on north? Especially because the Germans really really want Narvik in their hands so they can get Swedish iron shipped to them in winter?
Aside from denying the Germans the iron shipments though, the major thing about keeping Northern Norway free territory is that with that outlying stretch under Hitler's rule OTL, the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine were able to fly planes and support U-boats stationed there to strongly oppose the convoys of Lend-Lease aid to the USSR. If the Germans are held at Trondheim such shipments would be safer and the effective supplies arriving in Soviet hands would be larger, so it makes a difference certainly.
Meanwhile, I just want to minimize the number of people under Reich rule period. Only a minority of Norwegians might evade that fate but it will make a huge difference to them anyway--under Nazi rule, the Norwegians were not as much the victim of racist spiteful viciousness just for the hell of it and to keep in practice that so many other populations were, but "Aryan" or not, they were left to starve when the rations got tight anyway--to be sure, however much more willing Hitler and gang were to take a softer line in Norway than elsewhere, in practice they didn't owe the Norwegians any favors--very few of them bought the Nazi line and actively cooperated, and they resisted at every opportunity they figured they could get away with.
I hope that Northern Norway remains free of German rule than, and maybe I can still hope more of Norway gets liberated before V-E day.
But it certainly is possible enough that even doing substantially better than OTL they are doomed anyway, and it seems evident that decision has been made by the author already.
Still as on other fronts in this ATL, every bit of incremental attrition the Axis suffers helps the Allies down the road.
Speaking of down the road, aside from tricks the Germans themselves have up their sleeves, I suppose Mussolini is going to strike out of Italy pretty soon too?
That was more insult than injury to France OTL I gather, and here too whenever the Italians do strike it won't be critical--though it does make the idea of evacuating via Mediterranean ports more problematic of course.
OTL Mussolini waited until France was clearly on the ropes and insofar as the Allies have somewhat better performance overall though it doesn't save any nations in Western Europe (counting Norway as not there but in Northern Europe, and apparently Norway will remain only partially free if even that) then I suppose his day late dollar short attack on France will come somewhat later than OTL since it will take longer before France is clearly done for.
Of course a really big butterfly would be, France still falls, but Italy does not strike and remains technically neutral for longer or sits out the war completely. This is hardly likely of course given the nature of Mussolini's relationship with Hitler. Mussolini is surely going to believe, if France is clearly falling anyway, that Hitler is bound to achieve final victory, and so failure to deal himself in on the Axis team actively when it is still early enough to matter would be a way of cutting himself off from Hitler's patronage. It is only the fear the French might not fall and the Entente might once again ultimately prevail that is holding him back, and if France does fall he probably cannot imagine the British sticking it out all by themselves for years let alone ultimately prevailing (with a little help from some friends of course...)
So I suppose, given we have author prophecy assuring us France will fall eventually, it is then inevitable Mussolini will commit to the war on the Axis side.
Which will be bringing us to Greece, and I guess Yugoslavia and Albania, pretty soon I suppose.
I hope at any rate the Allies leave enough in Norway to hold most of what has not fallen yet. One might be blase about it and say, hey, the major populated and richest parts of Norway are already under Nazi control or sure to fall to it even if the Allies were not distracted by Fall Gelbe, so why not throw in the towel on Narvik and on north? Especially because the Germans really really want Narvik in their hands so they can get Swedish iron shipped to them in winter?
Aside from denying the Germans the iron shipments though, the major thing about keeping Northern Norway free territory is that with that outlying stretch under Hitler's rule OTL, the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine were able to fly planes and support U-boats stationed there to strongly oppose the convoys of Lend-Lease aid to the USSR. If the Germans are held at Trondheim such shipments would be safer and the effective supplies arriving in Soviet hands would be larger, so it makes a difference certainly.
Meanwhile, I just want to minimize the number of people under Reich rule period. Only a minority of Norwegians might evade that fate but it will make a huge difference to them anyway--under Nazi rule, the Norwegians were not as much the victim of racist spiteful viciousness just for the hell of it and to keep in practice that so many other populations were, but "Aryan" or not, they were left to starve when the rations got tight anyway--to be sure, however much more willing Hitler and gang were to take a softer line in Norway than elsewhere, in practice they didn't owe the Norwegians any favors--very few of them bought the Nazi line and actively cooperated, and they resisted at every opportunity they figured they could get away with.
I hope that Northern Norway remains free of German rule than, and maybe I can still hope more of Norway gets liberated before V-E day.
B1 bis production was planned at 47 per month and there was actually 42 delivered in May 1940.
Renault R40: 91 planned in May, 120 in June, 206 delivered in May and June.
SOMUA S40: 15/month planned, 22 delivered in May.
As long as the crew was saved, the capabilities could be more or less maintained as one BCC (Bataillon de chars de combat) was 34 x B1 bis or 45 x R35-R40.
But the losses in Belgium will take longer to compensate.
Well, if Germans are unable to control Kirkines then the entire Battle for Arctic Region (aka German Assault on Murmansk) is avoided. The only possibility is Finland but now they have some sort of connection with the WAllies (who can in theory threaten Lapland). IOTL Britain declared war against Finland on the 5th of December after Stalin's request. So, it depends on author if Finns will ever try to threat Murmansk (their forces were streched thin, IIRC, by August 1941 after which they were partially demobolised). If no threat to Murmansk then more Soviet forces will went elsewhere (which can improve the situation in some other area).
Yes, this is something that will be addressed in the next French Campaign update, but this counter-offensive did cost the French a lot.
The fact that northern Norway holds will definitely concern Finland, but probably not in the way you think.
Does it mean all the four Heavy Tanks Battalions of both 2nd DCr and 4th DCr (4 x 30 tanks without reserve) had been almost fully destroyed ? It seems to be a lot. Even 30 % of the whole complement would have been tremendous casualties. Meaning one month production.
Of course, next engagements will cause further losses but one can imagine there won't be such a battle in the upcoming days.
That means French could have managed to replace destroyed tanks a little more easily than German that likely had to leave behind lots of damaged Panzers and had much longer supply lines.
OTL the attack towards Abbeville cost the French 200 tanks to take 3 quarters of the town.
It is not so much an matter of destruction. What matters is WHO controls the battlefield after the fighting stop. That side can reclaim the destroyed/damaged/ broken down tanks, and send them to the repair shops. Unless an tank is totally burned out and/or ripped apart, a lot of them are running again in an week.
The attack toward mount Caubert (not the town of Abbeville) cost the French and Britain 200 tanks out of a initial inventory of some 500. That is 40 % in three days in a very difficult terrain against entrenched defense with a lot of 10,5 and 8,8 cm guns. OTL there was only 23 tanks disabled in Montcornet.
Fully agree but in this case we have both parties having to retreat (2nd and 4th DCr on one side and peak Panzer units on the other) leaving damaged tanks on the field.
Very different type of battle at Montcornet ITTL than OTL. This was a full counter-offensive that cost the French many vehicles destroyed + many more abandoned.
Very different, indeed. But the question is: how many tanks lost (destroyed, abandoned and sabotaged) ITTL?
Is it 30 % (43 B1 bis), that is already quite a lot? Or 40% (57 B1 bis) as in mount Caubert, Abbeville IOTL? More?
I mean, Mussolini was 0% interested in actually fighting a real war against France or Britain - he only jumped in when he assumed there was no more fight to be had beyond the deeply theoretical. With France holding, he will default to his base position: that Italy is in no shape to fight up to 1943 at the earliest.
Bingo, even in OTL he believed in a last minute miracle for France and all the Dow was an extremely rushed up affair due to the fear to being left out of the negotiation table, frankly in this scenario where Germany while succesfull is not that stunning in doing it, the most probable thing is that he accept whatever bribe the Entente give him for neutrality and go for a wait and see approach
Chapter 12: The Kriegsmarine’s last ride (June 1940 - Norway)
June 1st - June 30th, 1940
Norwegian Campaign
Norwegian Campaign
In Norway, things had gotten dicey. While the situation in Norway was stable, with the Norwegian 6th Division and the Allied troops (still led by Béthouart) forming a line along the Skjerstadtfjorden, the German race to the sea had reshuffled the cards. France in particular were heavily insistent on pulling out their troops as Guderian’s panzers raced to the sea, despite both Béthouart and Bohusz being against the idea.
However, following the miracle at Montcornet and the forced retreat of the German panzers to the Schelde, things had calmed down.
Despite this, Paul Reynaud still wanted to evacuate the French troops in Norway, and frankly, so did Churchill. As such, in coordination with the Norwegian forces, it was decided to switch positions. The British and French troops would evacuate the Narvik and Bodo area, and be relieved by the Norwegian 3rd and 4th Divisions.
This movement was in response to generals Fleischer and Ruge being worried that most of the evacuated Norwegian men would either desert or lose the will to fight, away from home. In fact, the commanders of the 3rd and 4th Divisions had voiced their concerns during the initial evacuations against evacuating conscripts, but were promised that they would be transferred to Narvik as soon as logistics followed. The 3rd and 4th Divisions would thus reembark, along with general Otto Ruge, to hold the line around Bodo.
Thus, three divisions would be left in Norway, in addition to the Polish Mountain Brigade, which was to stay and help the Norwegians. The Poles would also receive their own air support, with Gladiators and Hurricanes transferred from Britain to the new Polish wing operating from Harstad and Bardufoss. Béthouart's Frenchmen would be evacuated to Scotland as a first step, then to France by mid-August. Similarly Gubbins' British would follow, with one Independent Company staying on the ground, and the rest being evacuated in echelons starting in early June.
With three and a half divisions holding Norway, and Franco-British interests secured, it was thus decided to proceed with Operation Alphabet, the evacuation of Franco-British forces and the transfer of Norwegian forces to northern Norway.
On June 4th, the first Norwegian troops started to land in Narvik, under cover of the carrier HMS Furious. The latter, along with the carriers HMS Glorious and Verdun, would be in charge of transporting aircraft in crates towards Norway.
It was not long till the news of the evacuation reached Berlin.
In the Shell-Haus, Admiral Erich Raeder knew that his Kriegsmarine was on thin ice. After suffering disastrous losses in the Norwegian Campaign, he definitely needed to show Hitler a victory to avoid being retired…or worse.
Raeder thus decided to send a task force northward to intercept the ships. Either evacuating or bringing troops in, if the Kriegsmarine sinks a few transports, that will be enough to calm Hitler’s temper and bring a much-needed victory for the Kriegsmarine.
Raeder does not skimp on details, and sends everything he has at his disposal: the battleships Scharnhorst and Gneisenau, the heavy cruiser Admiral Hipper, the light cruiser Emden, and the destroyers Z7 Hermann Schoemann, Z10 Hans Lody, Z15 Erich Steinbrinck and Z20 Karl Gaster.
All of this, of course, under the cover of the Luftwaffe bases in Norway for most of the journey. Raeder knew of the effectiveness of air cover, and knew that he couldn’t afford to lose even a single major unit.
This force was entrusted to admiral Wilhelm Marschall, one of the brains of the entire plan, whom Raeder completely trusted.
Setting sail under the cover of darkness, the force started to prowl the seas until it finally came across a target of extremely high value: an aircraft carrier.
This was the HMS Glorious, who was hurrying back to Scapa Flow with the destroyers HMS Acasta and Ardent. On board were some men of the British divisions landed in Norway, along with some of their equipment, and some air crews from No.263 Sqn.
The mood on board the carrier was relaxed. Most of the crews were not alert until they came within range of German fighters around the Norwegian coast, and only the anti-submarine crews were really working overtime. In this case, Captain Guy d’Oyly-Hughes hadn’t even bothered to set up a Combat Air Patrol. Not needed, and we do not want to lose any time! It was said that he wished to attend the court-martialling of his commander, something he would never get to see.
The German force intercepted the Glorious’ group in the afternoon of June 8th. The much superior German force made quick work of the two escorts, and turned their attention to the Glorious. Taken by surprise and without having had time to even launch a few aircraft, Glorious was sunk with the loss of 1,519 men, including her Captain.
But while Captain d’Oyly-Hughes was slacking, Ardent’s commander, J.F. Barkley, had time to send a distress message before hopelessly engaging the battleships. Whilst none of her salvo hit, the Acasta did hit the Scharnhorst with a torpedo, killing fifty sailors and putting one turret out of action.
In fact, the Ardent’s distress message was heard by another convoy, heading towards the other direction. It was the Verdun group, which was escorting a convoy bound for Narvik with men of the 3rd Norwegian Division.
Having acknowledged the message and correctly deducing that the German ships would try to escape southwards, towards Trondheim, the Verdun’s commander, Admiral Emmanuel Ollive, decided to intercept.
Moving quickly, he left the destroyer Tramontane with the convoy, taking the Verdun, the battlecruiser Strasbourg, two light cruisers and four destroyers with him.
The move succeeded, trapping the German force, hindered by the Scharnhorst’s reduced speed. The reconnaissance aircraft of the Verdun spotted the Germans on the morning of June 9th. Immediately, Ollive turned his force towards the ships, sending in a full wave of Laté 299s and LN 401s to strike the force.
The Scharnhorst, at reduced speed, was completely powerless against this. Hit by no less than four torpedoes, its speed was reduced to a horrific six knots. Likewise, the Gneisenau was hit by two torpedoes which reduced its speed to eleven knots.
Marschall knew he had been spotted, and, to his regret, decided to sacrifice the Scharnhorst, leaving the ship to be executed while he runs south at full speed with the rest of his force. By now, a battleship for a carrier and two destroyers looked like a good trade, especially since Marschall thinks he has killed many evacuated troops in the midst of it.
However, Ollive did not take the bait. Informed that the Scharnhorst was almost stationary, he decided to finish it off later.
The torpedo bombers were immediately readied for a second strike, whilst the cruisers and destroyers slowly closed the distance. This would be the Verdun’s last strike, and it was destructive. Hit four times, the Emden was critically hit and keeled over before the French fleet even arrived. The Gneisenau was hit two more times, with the destroyer Z10 Hans Lody also being hit.
It was then time for the guns to speak. Opening fire first, the French guns of the Strasbourg, Montcalm and La Galissonnière opened fire on the disorientated Germans. By now, only the guns of the Hipper could accurately reply.
A gun duel formed, with the French slowly closing the distance. The Strasbourg hit the Gneisenau twice at maximum range, with the destroyers Le Fantasque and L’Audacieux launching a high-speed torpedo run to finish off the battleship.
Burning, the Gneisenau will sink in the afternoon, almost twenty-four hours after sinking the Glorious. Admiral Marschall chose to go down with his ship, having given the order to make a torpedo run and scatter.
The La Galissonnière was quite damaged by the fire of the Hipper, losing its aft turret, and had to fall out of line. This presented an opportunity for the German destroyers, who tried to torpedo the vessel. But, under the fire of the Montcalm, which immediately swapped targets, the destroyers could not hope to reach the cruiser.
The Z10 Hans Lody, already slowed, was literally broken in two by a salvo of the Montcalm. The Z15 Erich Steinbrinck was hit by one shell, then crippled by two torpedoes from the destroyer L’Audacieux. It would sink in the evening.
Finally, the Z7 Hermann Schoemann was sunk by the gunfire of the Fantasque-class destroyers, which had engaged the batteries of the Hipper so as to distract the behemoth from aggressively pursuing the La Galissonnière.
This did not mean that the French escaped unscathed. The destroyer Mistral, hit by two torpedoes, stopped in the middle of the battle, and had to be scuttled in the evening as its damage was too extensive for it to be towed back to Scapa Flow. The La Galissonnière had also been beaten up, with its speed reduced to 15 knots: it had to leave for Scotland immediately.
In the meantime, the Hipper, still capable of maximum speed, and the Z20 Karl Gaster, made their escape south, taking advantage of the French being too occupied with finishing off the German destroyers. Ollive, seeing that his flotilla would soon be in range of the German Luftwaffe, chose not to pursue, and sent a message to the fleets detailing his victory and the bearing of the Hipper and Karl Gaster. The submarines would take care of them.
As for the Scharnhorst, the British, informed of the battle, had diverted several submarines to the area to hope to catch the German force. Ollive did not have time to send his planes for a final strike: the HMS Clyde took care of the stricken battleship and sent it to the bottom with the loss of 1,205 men.
The day after, the French submarine Rubis spotted the Z20 Karl Gaster escorting the Hipper southwards. A salvo of torpedoes executed the destroyer, leaving the Hipper to continue south on its own. The poor German cruiser would not have a fun time in reaching Trondheim. It was spotted by the submarine ORP Wilk, which also tried a torpedo run, but only succeeded in damaging the cruiser before leaving the cruiser to reach safe haven.
All in all, the Germans lost 3,500 men killed and 2,000 captured, for the loss of only about fifty Frenchmen and eight aircraft.
The British were both happy and furious. Happy because the Kriegsmarine was essentially wiped out as a serious threat, but furious it was the French who did the job for them! Angrily, Churchill ordered to sink the Hipper at any cost. Over the course of the month of June, the heavy cruiser would be mercilessly pounded, until, on June 17th, a raid of Skua of the Ark Royal finally finished off the last survivor of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea.
For the French, it was elation. Emmanuel Ollive was warmly congratulated and promoted to the head of all French Naval forces in the North Sea, while Vice-Admiral Edmond Derrien (on the Montcalm) was promoted to Admiral and put in charge of the Verdun. The light cruiser La Galissonnière safely joined Scapa Flow, then Rosyth, where it would remain until October 1940.
For the Germans, it was a much less happy state of affairs. Erich Raeder was immediately sacked by Hitler, and sent into forced retirement. He was replaced by Admiral Conrad Albrecht. Hitler, seeing the damage done by a light carrier, also ordered work be resumed on the carrier Graf Zeppelin, so that it be ready for action against a naval target in the Summer of 1941.
Albrecht was now on thin ice. The Kriegsmarine was almost obliterated, and the Bismarck, Tirpitz and Prinz Eugen would not be ready for a few months at the least. And with the war in France stalling, the prospect of Italy joining the war slowly became dimmer. Germany needed to strike in France quickly, or risk losing everything.
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So, seems like Germans will be much less willing to commit Admiral Scheer in their attempts to intercept Arctic Convoys. I honestly expect that Germans will have a hard time with Tirpitz, who IOTL was a boogey for the Allies. And Graf Zeppelin will drag some fine pilots away from the land battlefield.
Here I think the Germans would find far, far less equipment. While they woudl get some when Sundlo surrenders, OTL a lot of his men decided to ignore the order to surrender and fight on (and were cut off and surrendered later). ITTL, I think Fleischer would have left the Finnish border on the 6th to coordinate the partial mobilisation issued there, and would be at Elvegaardsmoen, where the big Norwegian army depot was when the Germans attack, and would have the men and time to evacuate any equipment not yet issued.
The Germans took at Elvegarardsmoen;
- 6000 rifles and carbines.
- 600 pistolers revolvers.
- More than 150 Madsen LNGs, each with 2 magazines and 300 reserve magazines.
- 60 Colt HMGs.
- 1,5 million cartridges.
- Uniforms, clothes, medical equipment and supplies, food and rations, skis, sleds, aroudn 30 horsers and a huge amount of winter equipment.
Without this, Dietl will have a VERY hard time equipping the sailors.
No darkness at this latitude in June but midnight sun.
Hitler is fooling himself if he thing having the Graf Zeppelin ready for action within one year. In April, Reader's estimation was end of 1941 for final installation of armament should the vessel be commissioned end of 1940. Likely later for such a new type of ship.
BTW, no common border with USSR at the time. Petsamo and Nikel were still Finnish.
Well, IIRC, Dietl are unable to do anything for the one simple reason. He's kinda dead ITTL.