JFK nominated for VP in 1956, runs in 1968?

Deleted member 189829

JFK was almost became the vice-presidential candidate in 1956 at the Democratic national convention. He actually won the second ballot, and only narrowly lost the final ballot to Estes Kefauver. JFK remarked on March 15, 1958 that:

'I am grateful to my father for his support – but I am even more grateful to "Mr. Sam" Rayburn. At the last Democratic Convention, if he had not recognized the Tennessee and Oklahoma delegations when he did, I might have won that race with Senator Kefauver – and my political career would now be over.'

Indeed, the 1956 was a landslide victory for Eisenhower. 457 to 73. In fact, with Kennedy on the ballot, it is likely that the Democratic ticket would perform even worse, as due to Kennedy's catholic and privileged background the incredibly close states of North Carolina and Missouri would go for Eisenhower.

In my opinion this rules out JFK in 1960. No previous failed vice-presidential candidate has managed to run for president and win four years later. And assuming Kefauver still decides not to run despite not being on the ticket in 1956, I suspect we get Nixon from 1961–1969. LBJ would be the nominee in 1960, and Humphrey in 1964.

However, I do not believe JFK’s presidential chances are over with a loss in 1956—FDR was the vice presidential nominee in 1920 in a landslide defeat and managed to win 12 years later in 1932.

JFK could continue in the senate and run in 1968. Or, if we are emulating FDR, we could have him run for Governor of Massachusetts in 1964. John Volpe, the incumbent Republican Governor, only narrowly lost the 1962 gubernatorial election by 5000 votes. He would run again in 1964 and only narrowly win 50.27% to 49.29%. We could have Volpe win in 1962 and lose to Kennedy in 1964, which sets him nicely up for a 1968 presidential run.

JFK also appears to be a shoe-in for the democratic primary (and presidency considering the GOP have occupied for the executive for 16 years). Humphrey, Johnson, and RFK are obviously not in the running.
 
. We could have Volpe win in 1962 and lose to Kennedy in 1964, which sets him nicely up for a 1968 presidential run.

JFK also appears to be a shoe-in for the democratic primary (and presidency considering the GOP have occupied for the executive for 16 years).
Thank you for a very detailed timeline. Domestically, we save the body blow of losing a young president to assassination.

Internationally, de-colonization is further along. Brezhnev is a cooler customer than Khrushchev, but maybe in his own way a tougher negotiator.
 

Deleted member 195769

Any speculation on what this would look like because I’ve never seen it discussed? I guess before you can imagine JFK in the 70s you would need to establish the major events of a Nixon presidency in the 60s. Conventional wisdom is that Scoop Jackson would be the nominee in 1968 if Nixon wins in 1960. There is also the matter of JFK’s Addisons but I think he could survive into the 80s.

Also, I wonder how this effects RFK and Ted Kennedy. JFK would still be senator so Ted can’t take his seat. RFK’s personality and politics were profoundly changed by his brother’s assassination so he probably stays more conservative. JFK would also have lots more children too so maybe in this timeline when we think ‘Kennedy’ we think of JFK’s progeny.

So yeah in this timeline we essentially get eight more years of Eisenhower via a less paranoid and bitter Nixon and a more seasoned, experienced Kennedy in the 70s. No Reagan either because there’s no Goldwater candidacy in 1964.

Also, how would this effect our perception of the executive branch? You would have twenty years of the Democrats and then sixteen years of the Republicans.
 
Why would JFK necessarily pass up 1964? Under a Republican President economic growth would likely be slower due to a more restrictive monetary policy, and Nixon may well get the US embroiled in a foreign policy crisis that would undo his Presidency. Eisenhower actually recommended to JFK that Laos was a dire national security concern, while the Pentagon had told the White House to send ground troops to Vietnam as early as 1961. If Nixon, fresh off the heels of successfully overthrowing Castro, gets the US embroiled in a quagmire in Vietnam then I could see JFK remaking himself into a foreign policy expert and running in 1964 on the basis of the Vietnam issue. (Ironically, as RFK did in 1968).
 

Deleted member 195769

Why would JFK necessarily pass up 1964? Under a Republican President economic growth would likely be slower due to a more restrictive monetary policy, and Nixon may well get the US embroiled in a foreign policy crisis that would undo his Presidency. Eisenhower actually recommended to JFK that Laos was a dire national security concern, while the Pentagon had told the White House to send ground troops to Vietnam as early as 1961. If Nixon, fresh off the heels of successfully overthrowing Castro, gets the US embroiled in a quagmire in Vietnam then I could see JFK remaking himself into a foreign policy expert and running in 1964 on the basis of the Vietnam issue. (Ironically, as RFK did in 1968).
Perhaps Kefauver would be the nominee in 1960 if he wasn’t the VP nominee in 1956. Then 1964 would be a three way race between JFK, LBJ, and Humphrey. It’s conceivable that JFK loses the nomination and rejects the VP slot due to what happened in 1956. The original post draws parallels between FDR and JFK which means a twelve year gap and JFK becoming Governor of Massachusetts.
 
Perhaps Kefauver would be the nominee in 1960 if he wasn’t the VP nominee in 1956. Then 1964 would be a three way race between JFK, LBJ, and Humphrey. It’s conceivable that JFK loses the nomination and rejects the VP slot due to what happened in 1956. The original post draws parallels between FDR and JFK which means a twelve year gap and JFK becoming Governor of Massachusetts.

I am not sure if Kefauver would be the nominee. He did well in the 1952 primaries, but after losing a contest for both President and VP I am not sure if he will have the momentum to win the 1960 nomination. I think it is more likely that a deadlocked convention nominates LBJ, who loses to Nixon - leading the way for Humphrey or JFK to win the nomination in 1964.
 

Deleted member 195769

Jackie Kennedy suffered a stillborn birth on August 23rd 1956. It’s possible that the Democratic ticket does better than described due to public sympathy.
 
Wouldn't JFK'S health issues throw a wrench into the works of a later political campaign?

JFK's health issues did not prevent him from gearing up for the 1964 campaign (his 1963 trip to Dallas was really a '64 campaign event), so I doubt his health would prevent him from running in '64 or '68.
 
Not guaranteed that Johnson loses to Nixon - the fundamentals for Nixon aren't great, and Johnson was an inventive, dogged, and vicious campaigner with deep-pocketed allies who'd spent his whole life preparing for a Presidential election. Everyone discounted him at their own peril.

1960 in this scenario could go either way, but if Johnson loses I almost guarantee a Dem - I'm guessing Harriman after a failure to put a liberal Southerner in - wins in 1964 and closes the 1968 lane for Kennedy. Only the Dems ever managed that, and Nixon isn't Roosevelt. On the other hand, if Johnson wins and doesn't perform you could end up with Rockefeller winning in 1964, which would be a frankly insane match for Kennedy if he secures the nomination in 1968. Two liberal upper-crust northeasterners is bound to be a totally depraved match up and will likely realign the party system.
 
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