No 2nd Balkan War

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

WI after the 1st Balkan War the Bulgarians are smart enough to take what they have and not cause a pile-up of their neighbors? How would this larger Bulgaria (with Adrianople, more of Macedonia, southern Dobruja) affect WWI? Would it stay neutral or still join the Central Powers and possibly overrun Greece?

 

[Oddball]

Excellent POD

Now that is the most interesting POD Iv seen in a long time. To bad Abdul aint around anymore .

We could perhaps see a less willing Bulgaria in joining the Central Porwers, and if Turkey still joins them, we could perhaps see a Entente Bulgaria?

Hopefully someone with more knowledge in Balkan questions could enlighten us?

 

[wkwillis]

Or they get really smart and not fight over Thrace at all?
So the Bulgarians have Dobruja and the Black Sea coast to Constantinople, the Greeks have Thrace to Constantinople, the Serbs and Bulgarians split Macdonia, and Constantinople (and the Sea of Marmara islands) is independent. You have four sets of coastal artillary controlling the Straits, which Russia won't like at all, but will please Britain no end.
You note that I am calling it Constantinople. The people are really the refugees from ethnic cleansing in the rest of the Ottoman Empire and the parts just conquered. Maybe an independent commission to administer under a figurehead American who decides that Constantinople is a country and lets what is supposed to be a fake front legislature take power?
Maybe he controls the legislature by a regulation that when the legislature is dissolved, the old legislators have to wait out the next term before the can run again? Kind of puts a spike in demogogues if somebody else gets the benefit of the new election. Have secret votes on the dissolution and the guys in power will disregard any instructions about having an immediate new election, or maybe the term limit is a year?
So the different ethnic groups learn to get along with each other and make money instead of war, a Switzerland in the sun.

 

[Andrei]

Would WWI even occur with Serbia , Montenegro , Bulgaria and Greece still allied with each other by the time Franz Ferdinand is assasinated ?
Maybe the Austro-Hungarians won't attack Serbia .
Even if they would attack , this would more likely lead to a third Balkan War between Austria-Hungary and The Balkan Alliance + Romania and/or Italy.
WWI started because Russia supported Serbia , and Germany declared war on Russia to help it's ally .
But in this timeline the Russians would probably not support a strong Balkan Alliance which is very close of controlling the straits and Constantinopole.
If the Ottomans ally themselves with the Austro-Hungarians it would be interesting .

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Even if the Bulgarians don't attack Serbia and Greece out of caution, the alliance would now be hollow; they'd still want all of Macedonia. A friendly stance towards A-H, with Serbia having to keep its head under the crocodile's jaws, is their natural option.

Awaiting more input, Andrei.

 

[Andrei]

Even if the Bulgarians don't attack Serbia and Greece out of caution, the alliance would now be hollow; they'd still want all of Macedonia. A friendly stance towards A-H, with Serbia having to keep its head under the crocodile's jaws, is their natural option.

Awaiting more input, Andrei.

Well , with no 2nd Balkan war the Bulgarians and the Ottomans would be worst enemies , because the Ottomans would want Edirne back and the Bulgarians would be dangerously close to the Ottoman capital.
The Bulgarians may want to keep the alliance active because they couldn't beat the Ottomans by themselves. The Austro-Hungarians on the other hand would not defend Bulgaria from a potential ally against the Russians.
The Bulgarians could recieve some parts of Serbian Macedonia for their help against the Austro-Hungarians. The Serbians would compensate the loss with Voivodina and a part of Bosnia after the war. The Romanians would probably enter the war to annex Transilvania. Greece might stay neutral if the Ottomans stay neutral , but the Greeks too could be convinced to help Serbia with some territorial gains in Serbian Macedonia.
Maybe a Balkan Alliance is unlikely , but it is logical. I think it is better for the Balkan states to ally with one another and fend off the great powers instead of fighting each other and becoming dependent on the great powers.It's the smart thing to do.