Plausibility Check: Could A Slightly More Successful Bay of Pigs Resulted in a Operation: Powerpack style of intervention? Or Would It Be Impractical

[HistoryGunsFreedom1776]

Everyone who is reading this should have a general understanding about the Bay of Pigs Invasion, about how a force of anti-Communist Cuban exiles were trained by the Central Intelligence Agency and were sent to topple the regime under Fidel Castro only for it to become a fiasco and the aftermath of this 'invasion' embarrassed the Kennedy Administration diplomatically.

Now what if in an alternate timeline despite the haphazard plot the rebels of Brigade 2506 were a bit more successful (say, they managed to push beyond the beachhead and started a guerrilla campaign or something that would be possible for them to achieve despite the disparity in number and other disadvantages) and acting under the assumption that Kennedy still desires plausible deniability would it be feasible for the 35th President to seek the cooperation of the Organization of American States and manage to succeed in forming a earlier Inter-American Peace Force like the one that intervened in the Dominican Civil War in 1965?

If required (as it something I was honestly looking at), the Point of Divergence is Jeff Chandler not being mortally injured while playing baseball with U.S. Army Special Forces soldiers who were serving as extras in the film Merrill's Marauders.

Now I will be perfectly honest, I have been considering using this as background for something (reasons are classified) but in the opinions of fellow alternate history enthusiasts and to check the possibility of this scenario: If the Cuban Exiles were more successful would Kennedy gain support from the OAS if he sought their sanction?

If yes, please explain and if no, please list reasons why and hopefully this discussion will be fruitful as there may be others who would like to learn about the reactions of other Latin American and Caribbean nations to the Bay of Pigs before the ruse was shattered at the United Nations and caused the United States government to relunctantly leave the exiles high and dry.

 

[HistoryGunsFreedom1776]

Any takers? And I should have clarified that it entails something akin to Operation: Power Pack in Cuba, not intervening in the Dominican Republic after the assassination of Rafael Trujillo if it isn't butterflied away.

Apologies for any confusion.

 

[HistoryGunsFreedom1776]

Okay, what if there were two point of divergences instead? In addition to Jeff Chandler's fatal injury being butterflied away what if Kennedy recalled General Maxwell Taylor earlier and have him give his input on the planning beginning in say February or March 1961?

 

[marktaha]

Full blooded invasion would have taken out Castro.

 

[RanulfC]

Everyone who is reading this should have a general understanding about the Bay of Pigs Invasion, about how a force of anti-Communist Cuban exiles were trained by the Central Intelligence Agency and were sent to topple the regime under Fidel Castro only for it to become a fiasco and the aftermath of this 'invasion' embarrassed the Kennedy Administration diplomatically.

Now what if in an alternate timeline despite the haphazard plot the rebels of Brigade 2506 were a bit more successful (say, they managed to push beyond the beachhead and started a guerrilla campaign or something that would be possible for them to achieve despite the disparity in number and other disadvantages) and acting under the assumption that Kennedy still desires plausible deniability would it be feasible for the 35th President to seek the cooperation of the Organization of American States and manage to succeed in forming a earlier Inter-American Peace Force like the one that intervened in the Dominican Civil War in 1965?

If required (as it something I was honestly looking at), the Point of Divergence is Jeff Chandler not being mortally injured while playing baseball with U.S. Army Special Forces soldiers who were serving as extras in the film Merrill's Marauders.

Now I will be perfectly honest, I have been considering using this as background for something (reasons are classified) but in the opinions of fellow alternate history enthusiasts and to check the possibility of this scenario: If the Cuban Exiles were more successful would Kennedy gain support from the OAS if he sought their sanction?

If yes, please explain and if no, please list reasons why and hopefully this discussion will be fruitful as there may be others who would like to learn about the reactions of other Latin American and Caribbean nations to the Bay of Pigs before the ruse was shattered at the United Nations and caused the United States government to relunctantly leave the exiles high and dry.

I suspect your main issue here was Kennedy wasn't interested in supporting the operation against Cuba as he had grave doubts about the operation itself as well as the intelligence it was based on. Eisenhower/Nixon's original plan was essentially to throw the US behind the invasion if it looked like it could succeed but to let the "rebels" go to ground in the nearby mountains (near the original planned landing site) if it looked like a failure and then "support" the rebels.

Kennedy suggested changing the landing site so that the 'rebels' would have early access (in theory) to a runway where they could the stage their air support and not have to fly back and forth to the US where it was likely you'd have the Cuban Air Force chasing them into US air space. This eliminated the any chance of having a fall back if the landing was seriously opposed but gave the effort an upfront air support on short call if it worked.

In any case the intel WAS bad as was the intel on the likely support from the native population all of which was badly skewed in favor of what was wanted instead of what was accurate. (Castro and his government were VERY popular at the time and have the majority of the population on their side) Getting any 'better' performance is going to be tough given the disparity in force levels and levels of support
Pretty literally the ONLY way this succeeds is with full US support and direct combat action nearly from the start

And there's your sticking point because Kennedy doesn't want a conflict. If Nixon was President it's likely he'd go for it but I don't see Kennedy doing so under the same circumstances. Given more time to get organized and actually seek OAN support that would likely change but at the same time that gives the REAL situation and intel time to filter up into the main narrative and frankly the rebels chances are very, very low which would probably preclude Kennedy's support.

Time is a major factor as it was a pretty open 'secret' that the US was backing an armed exile attempt to attack Cuba and the more time that goes on the more time Cuba has to prepare. (And yes the fact that everyone in Cuba KNEW the US was backing an 'exile' {assumed to be Batista loyalist and aiming to put him back in power} army to invade was a major factor in getting the support Castro's government got)

Essentially if Kennedy is President then someone has to convince him that this whole thing is not the rushed, put-up job front for a US invasion of Cuba that it literally was. Kennedy wasn't willing to risk that blatant of a move on shoddy intelligence work and wishful thinking and he was not prepared to openly invade Cuba which would draw to many parallels with Soviet actions in Hungary and Yugoslavia for a new administration. (Nixon on the other hand quite obviously felt different but it's likely it could have been 'explained' away as carrying forward Eisenhower policy)

I'll be honest that I don't see how Chandler living has any effect on the Bay of Pigs? Getting Taylor involved in the planning probably highlights how awful the actual planning and training were and how shoddy the whole idea was so that IF Kennedy can be convinced (and first you'd have to convince Taylor) the whole operation could be rewound and done right.

Randy

 

[RanulfC]

Full blooded invasion would have taken out Castro.

Ya it was the ONLY way to do it. No amount of Cuban resistance would have withstood an actual US invasion, but then you have the long road of trying to win the peace.... Something the US is pretty spotty on to say the least.

Randy

 

[marathag]

Ya it was the ONLY way to do it. No amount of Cuban resistance would have withstood an actual US invasion, but then you have the long road of trying to win the peace.... Something the US is pretty spotty on to say the least.

Randy

Easier with an Island, than with neighboring countries funneling aid across a land border that was off limits to US intradiction.

 

[HistoryGunsFreedom1776]

Full blooded invasion would have taken out Castro.

That I have no doubt and even if not immediately the guerrilla holdouts wouldn't last more than a decade, the ultimate question and this is why I concieved this PC is to determine if the other Latin American nations could be convinced to intervene instead of having it be seen as a blatant return to the Banana Wars as JFK was hesitant about sending in the Marines OTL.

I suspect your main issue here was Kennedy wasn't interested in supporting the operation against Cuba as he had grave doubts about the operation itself as well as the intelligence it was based on. Eisenhower/Nixon's original plan was essentially to throw the US behind the invasion if it looked like it could succeed but to let the "rebels" go to ground in the nearby mountains (near the original planned landing site) if it looked like a failure and then "support" the rebels.

Kennedy suggested changing the landing site so that the 'rebels' would have early access (in theory) to a runway where they could the stage their air support and not have to fly back and forth to the US where it was likely you'd have the Cuban Air Force chasing them into US air space. This eliminated the any chance of having a fall back if the landing was seriously opposed but gave the effort an upfront air support on short call if it worked.

In any case the intel WAS bad as was the intel on the likely support from the native population all of which was badly skewed in favor of what was wanted instead of what was accurate. (Castro and his government were VERY popular at the time and have the majority of the population on their side) Getting any 'better' performance is going to be tough given the disparity in force levels and levels of support
Pretty literally the ONLY way this succeeds is with full US support and direct combat action nearly from the start

And there's your sticking point because Kennedy doesn't want a conflict. If Nixon was President it's likely he'd go for it but I don't see Kennedy doing so under the same circumstances. Given more time to get organized and actually seek OAN support that would likely change but at the same time that gives the REAL situation and intel time to filter up into the main narrative and frankly the rebels chances are very, very low which would probably preclude Kennedy's support.

Time is a major factor as it was a pretty open 'secret' that the US was backing an armed exile attempt to attack Cuba and the more time that goes on the more time Cuba has to prepare. (And yes the fact that everyone in Cuba KNEW the US was backing an 'exile' {assumed to be Batista loyalist and aiming to put him back in power} army to invade was a major factor in getting the support Castro's government got)

Essentially if Kennedy is President then someone has to convince him that this whole thing is not the rushed, put-up job front for a US invasion of Cuba that it literally was. Kennedy wasn't willing to risk that blatant of a move on shoddy intelligence work and wishful thinking and he was not prepared to openly invade Cuba which would draw to many parallels with Soviet actions in Hungary and Yugoslavia for a new administration. (Nixon on the other hand quite obviously felt different but it's likely it could have been 'explained' away as carrying forward Eisenhower policy)

I'll be honest that I don't see how Chandler living has any effect on the Bay of Pigs? Getting Taylor involved in the planning probably highlights how awful the actual planning and training were and how shoddy the whole idea was so that IF Kennedy can be convinced (and first you'd have to convince Taylor) the whole operation could be rewound and done right.

Randy

That is a fair assessment and I appreciate the input @RanulfC , as the 35th President did held reservations but was talked into going along with it but what if in an alternate timeline he got a second opinion i.e. Taylor and the modified plan was enough to have the exiles be able to move beyond the beachhead? That would still mean that it is a risk OTL plan or ATL plan and that is under the assumption that it is a best case scenario despite the adage "no plan survives first contact with the enemy" but to be perfectly honest I'm surprised that Kennedy never considered OTL the possibility of creating a multinational intervention if the Bay of Pigs was at least slightly more successful and managed to create a Cuban Civil War or whatever prerequisite needed to have a feasible Powerpack type intervention, hence this PC.

 

[HistoryGunsFreedom1776]

I don't see how Chandler living has any effect on the Bay of Pigs

Whoops, honestly missed this part, my apologies but that was a hypothetical indirect start for the resulting butterfly effect as Chandler wasn't a CIA agent or anything but an actor who would die unexpectedly as a result of recieving an injury a few days prior to the Bay of Pigs and it was convenient for the purpose of this discussion, at least for the initial post because if that happenstance occurence never happened, then the resulting butterflies could be interesting to say the least.

I only mentioned Maxwell Taylor if an earlier POD is required for this but regardless, the main purpose of this discussion is not in regards as to how the exiles got their foot in the door but rather the feasibility of having a earlier Powerpack organized and on the island in the aftermath if that makes sense.

 

[RanulfC]

That is a fair assessment and I appreciate the input @RanulfC , as the 35th President did held reservations but was talked into going along with it but what if in an alternate timeline he got a second opinion i.e. Taylor and the modified plan was enough to have the exiles be able to move beyond the beachhead? That would still mean that it is a risk OTL plan or ATL plan and that is under the assumption that it is a best case scenario despite the adage "no plan survives first contact with the enemy" but to be perfectly honest I'm surprised that Kennedy never considered OTL the possibility of creating a multinational intervention if the Bay of Pigs was at least slightly more successful and managed to create a Cuban Civil War or whatever prerequisite needed to have a feasible Powerpack type intervention, hence this PC.

The problem is Kennedy first got briefed on the plan in January when he took office, and the "plan" was already arguably beyond its "sell by date" with if being by that point an open secret. Putting it off longer to get the planning re-done would be likely impossible given the shaky status it held and you'd have to spend several months putting together the coalition and getting everything ready to go. And no matter what Castro and Cuba as a whole are going to be united in opposing it no matter who's nominally doing it so it ends up having to have direct US intervention no matter what. Kennedy didn't like the optics of such an intervention so there's really not much chance of someone 'convincing' him it's a good idea. What you have to do is get him over the optics and make it sort of an 'imperative' on some level and that's going to be hard to do with the then current Cuban situation.

The thing was the "invasion" was never going to create the kind of uprising and/or civil strife that the US planners were counting on because at that point most of the population was fully supportive of Castro and his regime.

Randy

 

[HistoryGunsFreedom1776]

The problem is Kennedy first got briefed on the plan in January when he took office, and the "plan" was already arguably beyond its "sell by date" with if being by that point an open secret. Putting it off longer to get the planning re-done would be likely impossible given the shaky status it held and you'd have to spend several months putting together the coalition and getting everything ready to go. And no matter what Castro and Cuba as a whole are going to be united in opposing it no matter who's nominally doing it so it ends up having to have direct US intervention no matter what. Kennedy didn't like the optics of such an intervention so there's really not much chance of someone 'convincing' him it's a good idea. What you have to do is get him over the optics and make it sort of an 'imperative' on some level and that's going to be hard to do with the then current Cuban situation.

The thing was the "invasion" was never going to create the kind of uprising and/or civil strife that the US planners were counting on because at that point most of the population was fully supportive of Castro and his regime.

Randy

A fair assessment again as perhaps even bringing in Taylor in February or March would be more of a last minute tweaks that could still fail but even do it is safe to say that although most Cubans one way or another supported Castro for a multitude of reasons, respectively there were still political prisoners held and how many were thoroughly loyal to a fault?

Depending on the course it could gradually flip into at least part of the population defecting but there is no definitive answer as for the lack of a better word the 'invasion' barely got off the ground...err beach because the element of surprise was lost and iirc the proposed feit at another beach was canceled.

 

[vizzer]

One thing about a US invasion of Cuba and a subsequent insurrection is that it will have an impact on how willing the US would be to get involved in Vietnam if that comes up.
Conversely if the US defeats an insurrection in Cuba then they might decide they can do the same in Vietnam.

 

[HistoryGunsFreedom1776]

One thing about a US invasion of Cuba and a subsequent insurrection is that it will have an impact on how willing the US would be to get involved in Vietnam if that comes up.
Conversely if the US defeats an insurrection in Cuba then they might decide they can do the same in Vietnam.

Exactly as intervention to preempt the Domino Theory was inevitable since it was the doctrine of the day and if not Vietnam then it would have occurred somewhere else, the fact that in a ATL with a successful Bay of Pigs it may or may not increase resolve for intervention in Vietnam and a conflict like Vietnam was inevitable.

Even in OTL in the aftermath of the Vienna Submit and in the wake of the debacle at the Bay of Pigs, Kennedy reportedly told James Reston of The New York Times thaf "Now we have a problem making our power credible and Vietnam looks like the place."

A successful Bay of Pigs would only encourage it more than OTL.

 

[RanulfC]

A fair assessment again as perhaps even bringing in Taylor in February or March would be more of a last minute tweaks that could still fail but even do it is safe to say that although most Cubans one way or another supported Castro for a multitude of reasons, respectively there were still political prisoners held and how many were thoroughly loyal to a fault?

Depending on the course it could gradually flip into at least part of the population defecting but there is no definitive answer as for the lack of a better word the 'invasion' barely got off the ground...err beach because the element of surprise was lost and iirc the proposed feit at another beach was canceled.

Last part first: As I noted the timing was already past its prime and yes the original landing was planned so that if the 'invasion' failed they 'rebels' could fade into the mountains but it was changed to a place where they could take an airfield early on instead so as to reduce the lag time on air support. In either case it's not likely the landing would have gotten much beyond the landing point simply because everyone was waiting on them and worse the intelligence misreading was so bad that it's not likely even having the mountains to fall back into would have been a viable option.

There were a lot of political prisoners' but they were all confined to a single prison complex and Che was in charge of the defense there with orders (he was more than willing to carry out) to blow the place if it looked like they were going to be freed. The problem with the population was that any invasion (even by the US) was going to be seen as reinstating the past regime which was totally discredited and actively hated so the 'rebels' had zero on-the-ground support from the start. No amount of 'tweaking' is going to get over those issues and this was generally understood which is why the US military (and the CIA) was assuming they would be going in once the 'invasion' ran into trouble.

Really Kennedy is not the one to do this, he's just not in the political or personal position to push this to a conclusion because he felt (and really it was) it was a set up by Eisenhower and Nixon. Nixon would likely have pushed an invasion and might (might) have had the political chops to pull it off, Kennedy was too much an unknown and not as conversant in foreign policy to stick his neck out. This would come back to bite him during the Cuban Missile Crisis but at the time it looked like a good call. (The military and CIA did not think so but ...)

One thing about a US invasion of Cuba and a subsequent insurrection is that it will have an impact on how willing the US would be to get involved in Vietnam if that comes up.
Conversely if the US defeats an insurrection in Cuba then they might decide they can do the same in Vietnam.

Under the circumstances I'd suspect the US would be less willing even with a successful invasion because we're likely facing a low-level insurgency in Cuba for about a decade at least. Island or no the local population is NOT going to like being steam-rolled by the US and the imposition of what they will see a 'continuation' of the last regime. Castro's going to become somewhat of a folk hero and the US will be dealing with the fallout from that for a while.

Randy

 

[raharris1973]

So we're looking at any exile invasion, by itself, being a failure no matter what, just with other hypothetical Presidents beside Kennedy, like a third term Eisenhower, a Nixon, another Republican, a Johnson after a freak accident or assassination, basically anybody who cared more about 'can't lose' than the optics of not being the bad guy, would redeem the failed exile invasion with a follow up US invasion. And that invasion would succeed, eventually, because it would be 'too big to fail'.

Now, after that's well underway. Would any of those alternate Presidents still be pissed at the designers of the plan, for the estimates being so badly off, for the exiles doing so badly, for the Cuban reaction being so different than expected, and the US follow-up actions having to be so blatant and rushed? Or would those alternate Presidents just figure 'all's well that ends well'. Will heads roll at CIA and JCS, or not?

 

[RanulfC]

So we're looking at any exile invasion, by itself, being a failure no matter what, just with other hypothetical Presidents beside Kennedy, like a third term Eisenhower, a Nixon, another Republican, a Johnson after a freak accident or assassination, basically anybody who cared more about 'can't lose' than the optics of not being the bad guy, would redeem the failed exile invasion with a follow up US invasion. And that invasion would succeed, eventually, because it would be 'too big to fail'.

Now, after that's well underway. Would any of those alternate Presidents still be pissed at the designers of the plan, for the estimates being so badly off, for the exiles doing so badly, for the Cuban reaction being so different than expected, and the US follow-up actions having to be so blatant and rushed? Or would those alternate Presidents just figure 'all's well that ends well'. Will heads roll at CIA and JCS, or not?

The CIA takes a big hit as it was essentially their plan, their intelligence estimates and their pressure that got the plan rolling and bankrolled in the first place. The JCS was the 'backup' planning (for US intervention) and likely comes out in a better position. A third term Eisenhower is going to cut the CIA slack because he was fully invested in the CIA doing 'anything short of war' as a cheap alternative whereas as far as I can tell Nixon was a "little" bit more skeptical. Johnson (and Kennedy) was more skeptical that than that and turned to JCS intel groups to 'cross-check' CIA intel where possible post-BoP for the very reason that the intel had been so off. Unfortunately most of the military intel services had been shorted due to the increased Administration reliance on the CIA and post-BoP most of them were rebuilt along the lines of the CIA and "tell them what they want to hear" intel which didn't help matters. Heads will probably roll, but quietly and likely in the background.

The US invasion is going to win less because it's "too big to fail" but more about Cuba being 90 miles off the US mainland and an island with no means of supporting a credible insurgency once the US decides to invade. Castro was well aware of this hence his cozying up to Moscow once the 'invasion' failed. Before that he'd been aiming towards a separate "Latin-Communism".

Randy

 

[CHKeeley]

Castro was well aware of this hence his cozying up to Moscow once the 'invasion' failed. Before that he'd been aiming towards a separate "Latin-Communism".

I am aware of Castro reorienting towards the Soviet bloc despite no real prior relationship due to US pressure, but I don't recall having heard of the July 26 Movement leadership articulating plans like that in those terms. Do you happen to have a source on hand?

 

[RanulfC]

I am aware of Castro reorienting towards the Soviet bloc despite no real prior relationship due to US pressure, but I don't recall having heard of the July 26 Movement leadership articulating plans like that in those terms. Do you happen to have a source on hand?

"On hand" currently no, but from my reading it was clear that while they wanted a Marxist revolution they were not 'settled' with the Soviet model and saw a different path in Latin America. (While America and much of Europe saw only "Communism" the cracks were already there by this point with the Sino-Soviet split becoming more apparent and differences between how Cuban Communism was shaping up and Soviet Communism. Given a less paranoid Castro it's interesting to think of what might have been)

Randy