Prussian Großdeutsche: What if Prussia annexed German Speaking Austria?

[Oba Cahokia]

The German Question has been around since the beginning of the 1800s. After the Austro-Prussian War Prussia could've had the chance to cut out German Austria from the rest of Austria Hungary. Let's say the play the game as in our timeline with Southern German States and annex them after the Franco-Prussian war and created the German Empire. How would the Great Powers react if they achieve and what would the states of the Habsburg Empire look like up until the first balkan war?

Edit: No Bohemia.

 

[RedSword12]

It was diplomatically unfeasible to do such a thing.

 

[PolishMagnet]

After the Austro-Prussian War Prussia could've had the chance to cut out German Austria from the rest of Austria Hungary

Uhh no

None of the great powers would've tolerated this

 

[RedSword12]

Uhh no

None of the great powers would've tolerated this

Even if we assume no other great power would intervene, enough remained of the Habsburg military to put up a fight that Bismarck really didn't want to deal with. Plus, stripping the Habsburg empire of its German possessions would potentially leave it a decidedly non-German neighbor, setting up for future conflicts down the line. Do you really want to deal with a hostile Hungarian Habsburg Empire twenty, thirty years later?

 

[Bones101]

Russia, France and GB declare war

 

[Evil Crusader]

Obligatory "Pdox games do not model well historical diplomacy".
Let's play the game fully: who is this leader of Prussia that is advocating for the Austrian cession? Why and how do they convince the very Protestant élites to incorporate scores of shudder Catholics, that have known only the Habsburg as the German-speaking Emperor since many generations? Who do they appoint as lord of Osterreich, as most obvious and legitimate choices are out?
What can said leader do to convince Russia they are not a threat (hard but doable), France (much harder), the UK (almost impossible)?
As for the remainder of the Habsburg Empire, they probably become an Hungarian Empire, especially if Bohemia and Moravia become Grossdeutschland protectorates.

 

[Rafi_T]

Even if we assume no other great power would intervene, enough remained of the Habsburg military to put up a fight that Bismarck really didn't want to deal with. Plus, stripping the Habsburg empire of its German possessions would potentially leave it a decidedly non-German neighbor, setting up for future conflicts down the line. Do you really want to deal with a hostile Hungarian Habsburg Empire twenty, thirty years later?

Definitely feel this point, but also… I feel like the Hungarians would be secretly thanking God for such a blessing. After all, they’re now the top dogs of the Empire. No begging for the Austrians grant them a tiny bit of autonomy, nor threats of making the empire tripartite by establishing a Bohemian crown, much less a federal multiethnic nation. It would be every Hungarian nationalist’s dream of an independent Greater Hungary.

 

[Beaufortq]

I guess Russia can maybe be convinced with an offer of austrian Poland & Ukraine, the Hungarians get independence (and need protection from Russia bc of their slavic and orthodox subjects).

France would go to war instantly if Britain supports them. Otherwise they might try to get a coalition of smaller european states that are now afraid of Prussia (Netherlands may be worried due to Luxembourg, it's still in a PU right?)

Also the other german states might ally with France instead of Prussia now.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Define "German speaking". While Bohemia has an overall czechophone majority, most of the cities are majority German, as are the Sudeten regions on the borders of Saxony and Bavaria, and German is the typical language of business. It's been a part of the germanic Austrian Empire, the Germanic Confederation, and the German-ruled Holy Roman Empire for a thousand years. Is it in or out?

 

[Hearkener]

Let's play the game fully: who is this leader of Prussia that is advocating for the Austrian cession? Why and how do they convince the very Protestant élites to incorporate scores of shudder Catholics, that have known only the Habsburg as the German-speaking Emperor since many generations? Who do they appoint as lord of Osterreich, as most obvious and legitimate choices are out?

TBF, integrating Austria was not unpopular among the petite-burgeoisie of the German States. This was called the Großdeutsche Lösung. It's advocates hoped that Austria might serve as a counter-balance to Prussia in their empire. And since they did also manage to integrate Bavaria and the other southern Catholics, religion was not as big a factor as you might think.

Regarding the Habsburgs, they probably aren't as much trouble as you might think. Ultimately, the dynasty and her subjects could have been integrated relatively smoothly, provided you get them to change their titulature from Kaiser to König. Or maybe some bizzare arrangement with the Austrian ruler styling himself Kaiser in Österreich (Emperor in Austria) as opposed to the Hohenzollern's Deutscher Kaiser (German Emperor), which is similar to the solution the Prussians adopted early in their history. (This is why a very German state was named after a tribe of Lithuanian pagans).

The Prussian government could probably just determine a remote Habsburg to take the Austrian throne and have him join their Bund. He'd be dependent on them and they could use that to leverage Austria's integration into the nascent Empire.

The real impossibility stems from foreign policy, as doing this would certainly have triggered a war with the remaining three concert members.

 

[Evil Crusader]

TBF, integrating Austria was not unpopular among the petite-burgeoisie of the German States. This was called the Großdeutsche Lösung. It's advocates hoped that Austria might serve as a counter-balance to Prussia in their empire. And since they did also manage to integrate Bavaria and the other southern Catholics, religion was not as big a factor as you might think.

Regarding the Habsburgs, they probably aren't as much trouble as you might think. Ultimately, the dynasty and her subjects could have been integrated relatively smoothly, provided you get them to change their titulature from Kaiser to König. Or maybe some bizzare arrangement with the Austrian ruler styling himself Kaiser in Österreich (Emperor in Austria) as opposed to the Hohenzollern's Deutscher Kaiser (German Emperor), which is similar to the solution the Prussians adopted early in their history. (This is why a very German state was named after a tribe of Lithuanian pagans).

The Prussian government could probably just determine a remote Habsburg to take the Austrian throne and have him join their Bund. He'd be dependent on them and they could use that to leverage Austria's integration into the nascent Empire.

The real impossibility stems from foreign policy, as doing this would certainly have triggered a war with the remaining three concert members.

Sorry, but I believe this analysis to be just wrong. The petite bourgesie lost the initiative in 1849, by the time a Brothers' War scenario happens the Prussian élites are the ones who matter the most and who were fairly reticent against stronger Catholic opposition; the Vatican isn't exactly helping matters either. Sure, unification as well masterminded by Bismarck is one thing, with more focus on the hated French than on internal division, but here there's no such scapegoat.
And while it's possible a minor or renegade Habsburg could have accepted the downgrade, the loss of legitimacy would be massive and a huge problem with other monarchs, both friendly and foreign, that saw Prussia essentially jeopardize ancient rights just because it suited them. There's zero chance Franz Joseph himself, or his immediate family, accepts to be "smoothly integrated by being demoted to König". Far from fixing problems, the two-Emperor conundrum would be a major source of internal strife by making the fight even more openly about who is the head honcho. Should a Kaiser submit to another? Neither wants to, and in this system, has plenty of reason and allies not to do it. After all, the King in Prussia elevated himself to fight against the wishes of the Kaiser, not in accordance with them.

 

[Alamannicus]

Sorry, but I believe this analysis to be just wrong. The petite bourgesie lost the initiative in 1849, by the time a Brothers' War scenario happens the Prussian élites are the ones who matter the most and who were fairly reticent against stronger Catholic opposition; the Vatican isn't exactly helping matters either. Sure, unification as well masterminded by Bismarck is one thing, with more focus on the hated French than on internal division, but here there's no such scapegoat.
And while it's possible a minor or renegade Habsburg could have accepted the downgrade, the loss of legitimacy would be massive and a huge problem with other monarchs, both friendly and foreign, that saw Prussia essentially jeopardize ancient rights just because it suited them. There's zero chance Franz Joseph himself, or his immediate family, accepts to be "smoothly integrated by being demoted to König". Far from fixing problems, the two-Emperor conundrum would be a major source of internal strife by making the fight even more openly about who is the head honcho. Should a Kaiser submit to another? Neither wants to, and in this system, has plenty of reason and allies not to do it. After all, the King in Prussia elevated himself to fight against the wishes of the Kaiser, not in accordance with them.

Jamming the Kaiser of Austria into a Prussian-led German political entity also gives a packaged and wrapped figurehead for German Catholics and the Pope to rally behind if Berlin even thinks about cracking the Kulturkampf whip.

 

[Nuraghe]

Jamming the Kaiser of Austria into a Prussian-led German political entity also gives a packaged and wrapped figurehead for German Catholics and the Pope to rally behind if Berlin even thinks about cracking the Kulturkampf whip.

not only that, it also means the Reich has a Catholic majority, which potentially exists a pole of natural opposition to Berlin's policies and finally there are all the existing organized Catholic parties to consider which will join the rest, if we remember that Bismarck had already huge problems with the Zentrum party in Otl, now imagine if it has this it also adds not only the Bavarian ones but also the Austrian ones, in this scenario the kulturkampf would be political suicide

 

[Hearkener]

Sorry, but I believe this analysis to be just wrong. The petite bourgesie lost the initiative in 1849, by the time a Brothers' War scenario happens the Prussian élites are the ones who matter the most and who were fairly reticent against stronger Catholic opposition; the Vatican isn't exactly helping matters either. Sure, unification as well masterminded by Bismarck is one thing, with more focus on the hated French than on internal division, but here there's no such scapegoat.

The Petite-Burgeoisie may have been technically defeated in the failed revolution of 1848, but they were still a powerful political force that could shape policy. Notably, the Prussian elite and wider German aristocracy hated the idea of unification. That it came to pass against their will was largely due to the efforts of Bismarck and the urban Burgeoisie, who campaigned for it relentlessly. Wilhelm I assented to becoming Kaiser because his chancellor impressed upon him that there was no way to refuse and maintain his own power. The victors of 1871 would never again have commanded the respect of their subjects had they rejected the empire.

And while it's possible a minor or renegade Habsburg could have accepted the downgrade, the loss of legitimacy would be massive and a huge problem with other monarchs, both friendly and foreign, that saw Prussia essentially jeopardize ancient rights just because it suited them. There's zero chance Franz Joseph himself, or his immediate family, accepts to be "smoothly integrated by being demoted to König". Far from fixing problems, the two-Emperor conundrum would be a major source of internal strife by making the fight even more openly about who is the head honcho. Should a Kaiser submit to another? Neither wants to, and in this system, has plenty of reason and allies not to do it. After all, the King in Prussia elevated himself to fight against the wishes of the Kaiser, not in accordance with them.

All that is true. But Germany was ultimately a nation forged by the sword, and so long as Prussia could impose its will on Austria militarily, there is little that the Habsburgs might do on their own to counter that. I severely doubt their ability or willingness to stage a prolonged rebellion against the Bund. German political culture made such an effort unthinkable - that's just not how German states behaved in a situation like that. If FJ was deposed by force, he would flee the country and write strongly worded letters, not start an insurrection.

And frankly, German nationalism was not very much concerned with legitimacy. The nationalists would have their empire at any cost, and those who stood in their way would die by the sword, no matter what ancient rights they claimed for themselves.

You are right that it could never succeed, but because of foreign policy, not internal affairs.

 

[Evil Crusader]

The Petite-Burgeoisie may have been technically defeated in the failed revolution of 1848, but they were still a powerful political force that could shape policy. Notably, the Prussian elite and wider German aristocracy hated the idea of unification. That it came to pass against their will was largely due to the efforts of Bismarck and the urban Burgeoisie, who campaigned for it relentlessly. Wilhelm I assented to becoming Kaiser because his chancellor impressed upon him that there was no way to refuse and maintain his own power. The victors of 1871 would never again have commanded the respect of their subjects had they rejected the empire.

All that is true. But Germany was ultimately a nation forged by the sword, and so long as Prussia could impose its will on Austria militarily, there is little that the Habsburgs might do on their own to counter that. I severely doubt their ability or willingness to stage a prolonged rebellion against the Bund. German political culture made such an effort unthinkable - that's just not how German states behaved in a situation like that. If FJ was deposed by force, he would flee the country and write strongly worded letters, not start an insurrection.

And frankly, German nationalism was not very much concerned with legitimacy. The nationalists would have their empire at any cost, and those who stood in their way would die by the sword, no matter what ancient rights they claimed for themselves.

You are right that it could never succeed, but because of foreign policy, not internal affairs.

Sorry, but no, again. The élites were perfectly okay with unification, as long as they got to pick the rules. And the makeup of the German Empire makes this abundantly clear: some states kept pockets of autonomy in various matters, the parlamentary system was designed to be as oligarchic - if not almost autocratic as possible - and heavily favored the fabled "Prussian Junkers". They, not the PB, nor the Catholics, would go on to direct the Empire. Had Wilhelm for some random reason chosen not to take the Imperial Crown, there wouldn't have been riots or such, just a very tight German Confederation still helmed by Prussia, the only power lost that of having the legal right to make demands of other German monarchs but still having the might and Prestige to do so.
The whole point of Bismarck in the Brothers' War was that any direct aggrandizement worked against, not for, Prussian leadership. Sure, nobody could stop Prussia in the immediate. But now everybody inside Germany has the certainty Prussia is not caring about them and incentive to thwart them as much as possible; open revolt is a no go, but for example, any further French conflict will see people try and wriggle out as much as possibile, draining troops and attention even without a direct diplomatic threat.
Nationalists may not care about legitimacy and such, but they sorely lack an army, now more than they did in 1849.

 

[Hearkener]

Sorry, but no, again. The élites were perfectly okay with unification, as long as they got to pick the rules. And the makeup of the German Empire makes this abundantly clear: some states kept pockets of autonomy in various matters, the parlamentary system was designed to be as oligarchic - if not almost autocratic as possible - and heavily favored the fabled "Prussian Junkers".

Define what élites you're talking about. The Junker were happy enough with the arrangement, but a lot of the smaller German states weren't, and neither was the Prussian high nobility. What the Hohenzollern wanted was to continue being kings of Prussia, and to avoid the emperorship, which they perceived as an insult to their honor and a threat to their power. This was still the same "gutter crown" they had rejected a generation earlier - just now foisted on them by a much broader coalition. And the new German state was strongly influenced by the Junker, but not exlcusively. Bismarck's state made strong concessions (for the time) towards the PB, freeholding peasants and indeed the urban proletariat.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Define what élites you're talking about. The Junker were happy enough with the arrangement, but a lot of the smaller German states weren't, and neither was the Prussian high nobility. What the Hohenzollern wanted was to continue being kings of Prussia, and to avoid the emperorship, which they perceived as an insult to their honor and a threat to their power. This was still the same "gutter crown" they had rejected a generation earlier - just now foisted on them by a much broader coalition. And the new German state was strongly influenced by the Junker, but not exlcusively. Bismarck's state made strong concessions (for the time) towards the PB, freeholding peasants and indeed the urban proletariat.

Traditional élites got essentially the best of two worlds - vestigial remnants of their traditional autonomy were integrated, such as the King of Bavaria retaining a measure of foreign policy and independent Concordat; it got coupled with being part of a powerful, assertive, modern country that gave them, and not the average bourgeois, lots of influence. Sure, they may not have been ultra happy and ready to lob themselves at the Prussian feet, but even in the Age of Nationalism, that is the way of the world. No ruler ever welcomed Risorgimento and negotiated to be top nobles in a new Savoy-led Kingdom, they all rather got expropriated first. The King of Montenegro ended up dispossessed of both title and crown and branded traitor to the new Kingdom of Yugoslavia. In Moldavia, some people resisted the new Union with Wallachia. Compared to them, the buy-in of the German leaders was unquestionably superior.
The PB could lobby all they want, but in the end, Bismarck gave them what he saw fit out of his free and far-sighted will, and subsequent Chancellors simply ignored them as needed. I just think you're slightly underestimating how overall harmonious was the German Unification.

 

[Nivek]

Edit: No Bohemia

Someone remember me, thanks

 

[Charles III Stuart]

Obligatory "Pdox games do not model well historical diplomacy".
Let's play the game fully: who is this leader of Prussia that is advocating for the Austrian cession? Why and how do they convince the very Protestant élites to incorporate scores of shudder Catholics, that have known only the Habsburg as the German-speaking Emperor since many generations? Who do they appoint as lord of Osterreich, as most obvious and legitimate choices are out?
What can said leader do to convince Russia they are not a threat (hard but doable), France (much harder), the UK (almost impossible)?
As for the remainder of the Habsburg Empire, they probably become an Hungarian Empire, especially if Bohemia and Moravia become Grossdeutschland protectorates.

Had the House of Stuart remained on the British throne, Britain probably wouldn't have been so involved in continental politics. You need a PoD in the 1680s, though. Either Monmouth succeeds or the Orange Usurpation "Glorious" Revolution fails, then Britain probably is more interested in its colonies, which may or may not eventually become independent in this timeline. Even if the colonies become independent, Britain would probably be more involved with Canada, USA, Australia, and New Zealand than with the Continent.

 

[Tibi088]

Definitely feel this point, but also… I feel like the Hungarians would be secretly thanking God for such a blessing. After all, they’re now the top dogs of the Empire. No begging for the Austrians grant them a tiny bit of autonomy, nor threats of making the empire tripartite by establishing a Bohemian crown, much less a federal multiethnic nation. It would be every Hungarian nationalist’s dream of an independent Greater Hungary.

Something like that but not really. Remember that the Ausgleich did not happen - there is no peace between the monarchy and the hungarians as of yet.

Than there is the Klapka legion. During the Austro-prussian war of 1866 Bismarck did send a force of hungarian revolutionary emigree's to Hungary under the leadership of György Klapka, a generel of the hungarian revolution. OTL peace negotiations were already underway by the time he crossed the border and nothing really came of it. But if the prussians continue this war into conquering the heart of Austria than this could lead to another - at least - uprising by the hungarians.

Finally if the dynasty survives with retaining Hungary (What about Galicicia by the way?) I do think that a very significant amount of Habsburg loyalists would follow the dynasty to Hungary as emigree's. They would want positions and they are the most reliable group for the Habsburgs. OTOH if they retain mostly Hungary there is bound to be significant frictions with the hungarian elite and this group.