Realistic 'For Want of a Nail'

Beatriz

Gone Fishin'
Sobel's For Want of A Nail explored the world without an American revolution through a historiographical lens from the viewpoint of an in-universe historian. However, the book lacked even much of a passing mention of say, China or even (post-British )India really despite these regions having at least some relevance in IOTL's 1970s, and the basics of 19th century Chinese and or Indian history being available to a historian of that time period, and a lack of .. research/imagination when it comes to Europe.

So what would a realistic 'for want of a nail' look like?
 
Regarding article of Wikipedia it seems that the novel indeed talked really few about Europe and Asia despite them being important places. And has the novel said anything about Africa, South America and Australia? Yes, that historian focuses to North America but still might had given more hints about world outside of NA.

And that Mexico seems bit unlikely. I doubt that Brits and CNA just would accept its rapid expansion. And I doubt that it would take Alaska. Why it even would had wanted that if we assume that its nature reserves are found about same time as in OTL and Mexico did that before finding them.

And why CNA even would go isolaitonist since it held close relations with Britain? Not really believeable IMO.

And some corporation having control over nations seems bit odd.
 
I did a series over in the flag thread to remedy the three major issues I saw with the book:
  1. No new ideologies
  2. Kramer's position at the end didn't make sense
  3. The tech-tree was all over the place
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Have another one-off! This one's based off of my idea for tweaks to Robert Sobel's For Want of a Nail. This is the flag I came up with for the post-revolutionary "Pacific Pact" of Taiwan, Japan, Westralia and the Philippines. Originally an international alliance created as a legal fig leaf for the Kramer Associates megacorp after it severed the company's lifelong ties with the United States of Mexico and relocated to Taiwan, in the instability following the move a dip in the company's stock price allowed the middle-management of the company, in collaboration with the various Kramer shop unions, to gain control of the company through the policies of Social Capitalism.

I based Social Capitalism on Neiderhofferism, a fictional ideology Sobel created for his book. Given his POD it makes sense that communism and fascism would be butterflied away, but it was odder to me that his fictional ideology never has a big breakthrough in the twentieth century, so I decided to create one while also forcing the frankly ridiculously successful Kramer Associates make more sense in the wake of the exodus from Mexico. Neiderhofferism, as described in the book, revolves around the working class collaborating to purchase ownership of the companies where they work, and given the incredibly complicated shell game Kramer Associates used to prevent the nationalization of their assets in canon it made sense to me that with inside knowledge provided by the frustrated middle-managers, enough workers acting at the same time would be able to exploit that structure to buy up a large portion of stock quickly, given the almost inevitable dip in price that would realistically come from the postwar restructuring. Then the newly empowered part-owners would then be able to use the threat of work stoppages across the company to guarantee themselves a real say on the company board of directors.

In the wake of the so-called Day-Trader Revolt, the Pacific Pact restructured, with the newly-minted national unions of Kramer employees rebranding themselves into Social Capitalist political parties, creating an escalating cycle where Kramer money was used to finance the parties, who in turn leveraged their resulting influence into preferential trade status for the company. This was most clearly seen with the successfully engineered referendum to separate Westralia from the rest of Australia. Using a program begun during the Global War the pact becomes the first nation to successfully deploy an atomic bomb, declaring it a deterrent against renewed Mexican aggression, though given the large number of Kramer citizen-employees within each of the Great Powers many consider an expansion of this policy to be implied.

The symbology of the Pact flag is relatively simple, with the lower half imported directly from the the original Gadsden flag used by Kramer Associates. Despite the flag's ties to the history of the USM it was considered an important symbol of defiance to foreign aggression. The upper half is the flag of Social Capitalism. With the failure of the French Revolution, the Leveller green of the English Civil War became the international color of socialism. The hammer and torch were selected by Neiderhoffer to represent worker cooperation between manual and administrative workers (the hammer and the torch, respectively). The white of the symbol was chosen to represent the peaceful path to worker empowerment offered by Social Capitalism. I basically mirrored and recolored the syndicalist emblem given the focus on worker collaboration to manage industries. As for basic flag dimensions I decided to use the proportions of the OTL Mexican flag.

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Have a sequel I whipped up, a little something I extrapolated from Confederacy of North America social policy.

The Moralist International* is a nonstate aid organization headquartered in the Confederation of North America and rooted in the North American socialist tradition and in the foreign policy of former Governor-General Richard Mason commonly known as the "Mason Doctrine". Socialist activism in the CNA has always trended more toward the agrarian and utopian trends in the movement, and since the 1920s has explicitly rejected the premise of Social Capitalism as a symptom of the false state of life encouraged by urbanization and factory work. The utopian trend, meanwhile, is clearly seen in the Mason Doctrine, a program of humanitarian aid carried out by the Confederation government from 1953 to 1962. Alone among the great powers, the CNA was able to completely avoid fighting in the Global War, and the flood of guilt that followed in the aftermath of the war's end motivated Richard Mason to advocate for unconditional gifts to all war-ravaged nations as a show of contrition for not having prevented the outbreak of war in the first place. Regarded with more sober eyes as a woefully naïve proposal, the original promises of unconditional aid were walked back into an expanded aid budget coupled with tighter eligibility controls. To Mason and his followers this would prove insufficient (despite growing international resentment of the program) and after Mason's Liberal Party was ousted from power his supporters would found the Peace and Justice Party, and several philanthropists in the party would in turn join with others throughout the United Empire to form the Moralintern.

The flag of the Moralintern uses the forget-me-not and signal blue favored by socialists in the CNA, representing nature and the open sky (respectively), in contrast with the Sea Green favored by Social Capitalists and by association conflated with other urban socialists. The dove naturally represents peace, symbolism also used in Mexican President Mercator's "Offensive of the Dove" global peace initiative. The atomic symbol represents the belief by Mason and his supporters that the existence of the atomic bomb is the ultimate guarantor of world peace, since it could only sanely be used in self-defense. The Moralist International supports the spread of nuclear energy and, contrary to Mason himself, is also a supporter of the Confederation nuclear program. The International regards accusations of atomic espionage by the Mexican government to be a scurrilous fabrication, and some within the organization are even quietly debating giving the USM access to atomic secrets willingly in the interests of maintaining world peace. The Moralintern is wary of the Pacific Pact given the latter's focus on reforming rather than toppling capitalism and on urban industrialism, and the two organizations compete for global influence, the former through aid and the latter through corporate expansion.

*Yes this was inspired by Disco Elysium, why do you ask?

View attachment 650757

Here's the third flag in my For Want of a Nail series, representing a reborn Mexican/German alliance that ironically finds itself in a niche similar to the Non-Aligned Movement in OTL.

While the War Without War began as a multipolar Great Power conflict similar to all the Great Games and colonial horse trading that had characterized European affairs since the Age of Discovery, the true devastation of the Global War created ripples that have resonated since the last shot was fired. The fifties were gripped by the transformation of Kramer Associates from a state of symbiosis with the United States of Mexico to the reformation of the company in the fires of Social Capitalism and the birth of the Pacific Pact. The sixties, meanwhile, saw the growth of the Moralist International from an international aid institution to a kingmaker in the expanding Confederation, rebranded the United Confederation of Britannia in the wake of the Pact-sponsored Westralian referendum. Now wary of seeing its allies peeled off one by one, a series of referendums and a whole slew of laws would follow, ultimately seeing the United Kingdom and the Australian remnant absorbed* into the newly reformed CNA government, though questions on the legality of the referendums and simmering nationalist discontent continued to linger after the ink was dry.

With Britain and her children united on one side and Kramer Associates on the other this created a scenario where Mexico and the Germanic Confederation were forced by circumstance to reforge their wartime alliance despite the earlier falling out over the Offensive of the Dove, though they were explicit that it was purely for defense. Offering themselves as a third position between "the endless handwringing of the Moralists and the economic exploitation on offer from the Social Capitalists", the so-called Progressive Alliance offered a path forward for nations to pursue their mutual defense without opening themselves up to extensive calls for internal reforms, and the various nations in the Mexican and German spheres of influence quickly joined. Despite this now much more inclusive membership the Alliance is very much the creature of the two founders, especially in the wake of the success of the long floundering Mexican atomic program.

For the flag of the Progressive Alliance I combined the diagonal bifurcation of the Mexican flag with the horizontal division of the Germanic Confederation and used all four colors involved- given the differing circumstances for German unification TTL (with Prussia defeating Austria in 1799 and creating the Confederation in the aftermath), the German flag has historically been a black and white bicolor after the colors of the House of Hohenzollern. The use of the sun symbol owes much to Mexican iconography, and as mentioned without the French Revolution sea green and later signal blue become the colors of competing strains of socialism, so red is up for grabs and I've taken a page out of @Ephraim Ben Raphael's book and made it the traditional color of conservatism. Yes it's called the Progressive Alliance, but Mercator says not to think about it too hard.

*In Sobel's book as of 1971 there is talk that the UK and Australia may join the CNA, essentially making the wartime alliance between the three permanent. With my introduction of the Westralia situation I decided that would change the calculus and make such a union more likely.

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The history of India in the War Without War is the the story of a nation torn between worlds, between domination under the British or the Germans, and between the raging tensions in world socialism between the Moralintern and the Pacific Pact. To get to the root of this sorry state, it is important to look at the history of National Union. Despite the company's long and storied history and its incredible positive public image in the Anglosphere, there is simply no denying the fact that for most of its existence National Union was as close to the Confederation's answer to Kramer Associates that the nation was capable of producing.

Mechanized farm equipment has always had pride of place in the CNA since the first primitive steam tractor was developed in 1845, based on improvements made on the Newcomen steam engine. The rapid improvement in productivity would have an immediate and severe impact in the Southern Confederation, where the early tractors were unsuited for cotton plantations at the same time southern yeomen were able to rent or share the new devices to maximize the value of their labor. When a crash in the price of slaves saw an attempt by the wider Confederation government to end the practice these yeomen were quick to denounce the planter class who contemplated secession, comparing them unfavorably to the earlier North American rebels and accusing them of trying to trick the poor into spending their blood to maintain the plantation lifestyle. Many of the most ardent slaveholders knew a lost cause when they saw one, choosing to liquidate as many of their assets as possible and make a new life in the much friendlier Mexico. The technology would become the basis of an agricultural revolution in the CNA, and the sudden ability for small groups to productively farm large areas would have a large impact on the growth of the agrarian socialism that would in turn lead to the birth of Moralism in the twentieth century.

It was in this social tumult that Samuel Matthews would be born in the Southern Confederation. Born in the same year the tractor had been invented, Matthews was an inquisitive child, and as a young man would get a job helping to manufacture the devices. Quickly showing his aptitude, he would become shop foreman by the age of twenty, and by the age of twenty-two Matthews would establish his own shop, inspired by stories of the rapid growth of Kramer Associates- and just like that National Union was born. The invention of the locomobile would put the company on the map, and although the first generation of "horseless carriages" were ponderously slow by modern standards the invention began to attract inventors and investors from throughout the nation. Although certainly a gifted inventor, much of the company's later success was owed to Matthews' unquestionable brilliance in spotting talent and properly marketing new inventions under the broader National Union label. Quickly branching from mechanical engineering, the company would become an early innovator in the field of electrical engineering and radio in the 1880s, and would develop the first generation of vitavision by the turn of the century. Like the first locomobile it was crude, but it attracted attention and spurred innovation in the field, and all the results came with the sheen of the National Union brand.

Following Matthews' death in 1903 (during a demonstration of National Union's first prototype airmobile), the company he'd spent his life building would undergo a transition in the face of sudden public scrutiny. It would never gain the sheer market share in the CNA that Kramer Associates enjoyed in Mexico, but the company would embrace the same corporatism that had taken the world by storm with the latter's phenomenal success, quickly diversifying into a stable of related companies and spreading throughout the British Empire. This would mark the entrance of National Union into the Indian market, newly opened to competition following the dismantling of the British East India Company. Although the company had used pensions and homes in idyllic planned communities to reward employee loyalty in the wide-open CNA, the far more densely populated Dominion of India made such tactics impractical in many areas of the country, and the company would turn to Neiderhoffer's ideas for a solution, using stock options to reward employees in a way that also incentivized greater productivity. The company would grow in popularity in the Dominion, a generally well-balanced blend of carrots and sticks proving far more responsive to popular moods than the EIC had been, and it would even relocate to the country to make use of the much lower cost of labor. And then came the Global War.

Although it had been made a Dominion at the turn of the century, many Indians were keenly aware that they were treated differently than the CNA or Australia, and it was only reluctantly that the Dominion allowed itself to be dragged into the brewing conflict between the United Empire and the Germanic Confederation and her allies. This would prove a mistake, seeing an ill-advised invasion of the country by the Russians in 1941. Although the occupation would only last a year, the Indians would seize the opportunity to throw of their old colonial yoke, and the Republic of India would form and immediately sign a neutrality treaty to end their participation in the conflict. The War Without War would see the Republic alone on the world stage, distrusted by the Empire that had abandoned them and completely unwilling to formally ally with the Confederation that had sanctioned the Russian invasion. The new nation was beginning to come under strain, long simmering religious and class tensions coming to the surface as accusations were lobbed that the Republican government was a thinly veiled attempt to enshrine hindutva and hereditary class privilege. And then came the Day-Trader revolt, and the birth of the Moralintern and the Progressive Alliance were not far behind.

In a newly uncertain world the Republic used these new external threats to bolster legitimacy even as it turned to the Moralintern to provide food aid while it focused resources on a nuclear program, swearing to the Confederation of Britannia all the while that it was focused entirely on energy production. 1986 would see the Madras nuclear disaster, and the world looked on in horror on their shiny National Union vitavisions as a reactor bearing the forget-me-not of the Moralist International melted into radioactive lava in the middle of a massive city. Instantly discredited, popular discontent would see the Republic overthrown in a velvet revolution, and then came the question of what would come next: the disaster had destroyed the credibility of not only the republicans but also the new generation of Indian Moralists. The Social Capitalists had another solution, and the National Union of India was born, uniting the best of Social Capitalism and Moralism together into one system and finally mending the rift that had riven the socialist world for the better part of a century and a half.

Sorry, that one was really long I know :coldsweat: but I wanted to include a bit of background to deal with that technological development issue I was talking about- I created Samuel Matthews out of whole cloth to replace Thomas Edison, who Sobel has still be born and who is some sort of science wizard that invents everything singlehandedly. Hence my fictional wunderkind taking credit for the output of his shop, and explicitly only producing the crudest earliest versions with the first generation inventions. The basis of this flag was inspired by a 1904 proposal for an Indian flag, though I replaced the original three horizontal stripes (representing religion) with two to represent the two strains of socialism. I kept the vertical purple stripe, but replaced the Orion constellation with a fairly basic National Union logo inspired by the early GE one from OTL. I also added the lotus as a pan-Indian symbol that also represents the new nation's commitment to sustainability in the wake of the Madras disaster.

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Here's my second take on a Social Capitalism flag! As before the Gadsden half represents resistance to government intervention* and sea green became the early color of socialism TTL. Some quick checking on the Levellers mentioned that unlike the Diggers the former preferred communal ownership achieved only through the consent of the owners involved, so it's even better suited to a jointly owned corporate form of socialism than I originally thought, so thank goodness for happy accidents. The white represents the nonviolent path to power presented by the ideology while the pen (representing administrative workers) and the wrench (representing assembly line workers) are shown collaborating to build up the company bottom line in a "rising tide lifts all boats" ethic. Also though the Mexican flag proportions make sense given the history of the ideology TTL, the proportions irked me so I altered it to my personal preference of 5:8 x'D

*and TTL is the flag of Kramer Associates
 

Beatriz

Gone Fishin'
I did a series over in the flag thread to remedy the three major issues I saw with the book:
  1. No new ideologies
  2. Kramer's position at the end didn't make sense
  3. The tech-tree was all over the place
Cool! I just would like to have seen a more ... fleshed out European politics and maybe some cool states like the Banat Republic or Szekler land
 

mspence

Banned
I could see a Texas Republic forming but not a "United States of Mexico" with the revolution having failed, the exiles being seen as radicals by the rest of the country & the Founders being discredited in the eyes of other Americans. Nobody else would want another uprising against Britain & the Texas-Americans would eventually have to make peace or become isolated.
 
I could see a Texas Republic forming but not a "United States of Mexico" with the revolution having failed, the exiles being seen as radicals by the rest of the country & the Founders being discredited in the eyes of other Americans. Nobody else would want another uprising against Britain & the Texas-Americans would eventually have to make peace or become isolated.

And speciality colonial official would are more than worried about these revolutionariers. Spain was supporting of them but they don't want lost their own colonies.
 
I could see a Texas Republic forming but not a "United States of Mexico" with the revolution having failed, the exiles being seen as radicals by the rest of the country & the Founders being discredited in the eyes of other Americans. Nobody else would want another uprising against Britain & the Texas-Americans would eventually have to make peace or become isolated.

I think you can have a USM equivalent but it would be less *Texan Anglos storming into Mexico City and closer to a stronger, more stable Mexico with large Anglo populations in its northern areas slowly creating a bilingual society. Andrew Jackson could still end up President of Mexico in this world given his military and political skills but it would be more akin to say Bernardo O'Higgins becoming President of Chile. Honestly, as For All Nails fleshes out, the creation of a hybrid Anglo-Hispanic Norteno culture is one of Sobel's best ideas and in some ways foreshadows the Mexifornia/El Norte cultural regions subsequent geographers have coined.
 

Beatriz

Gone Fishin'
Any thoughts on Europe sans our French revolution? Would Poland have been fully digested? Would there have been support for the Greek Revolution?
Using a straight line extrapolation, without our French revolution, Belgium would have either remained Austrian or spun off as a separate kingdom, and without the Napoleonic wars:
  • Finland would have remained Swedish with possible cultural Swedification
  • Prussia would be too busy digesting Poland (assuming the first and second partitions occurred) to unify Germany
  • the Austrian Empire would remain as the most dominant German state
  • the Survival of the republic of Venice at least until 1850 (which could be explored in a spinoff)
  • Slower and more partial unifications of Germany and Italy
  • some liberalization in Russia sans a Napoleonic invasion
 
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Any thoughts on Europe sans our French revolution? Would Poland have been fully digested? Would there have been support for the Greek Revolution?
As I recall Prussia defeats Austria in like 1799 and formed Germany early 🤔 it explains how they have time to grow so huge but I'd like to see more competing European powers last into the modern day.
 
Honestly, as For All Nails fleshes out, the creation of a hybrid Anglo-Hispanic Norteno culture is one of Sobel's best ideas and in some ways foreshadows the Mexifornia/El Norte cultural regions subsequent geographers have coined.
It really fits with The Peshawar Lancers' hybridized empires shtick and disappointing there's neither no indirect crossover (USM forms in the wake of the Fall) or direct crossover (the Fall happens in FWoAN universe) that explores the idea with the various TPL improvement projects on this board. Stirling destroyed North America far too much in the original novel, where basically everything east of California is cannibal neo-barbarians.
 

Beatriz

Gone Fishin'
As I recall Prussia defeats Austria in like 1799 and formed Germany early 🤔 it explains how they have time to grow so huge but I'd like to see more competing European powers last into the modern day.
Would an Ottoman state holding the Balkans be considered European or maybe a Kingdom of the Balkans might work?
 
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Beatriz

Gone Fishin'
It really fits with The Peshawar Lancers' hybridized empires shtick and disappointing there's neither no indirect crossover (USM forms in the wake of the Fall) or direct crossover (the Fall happens in FWoAN universe) that explores the idea with the various TPL improvement projects on this board. Stirling destroyed North America far too much in the original novel, where basically everything east of California is cannibal neo-barbarians.
Maybe more hybridized coastal cities/island chains would work instead because that's where cultural creolization occurred IOTL. Perhaps less British expansion in India leaves Bombay as an exclave with elements of an Anglo-Marathi culture like how the international Shanghai commision resulted in Haipai cuisine and architecture

Also it is interesting for North Africa to have hybridized legation cities.
 
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Beatriz

Gone Fishin'
Also there is little mention of China or Japan despite both nations having played important roles in the 19th and 20th centuries.
 
One of the most bizarre errors in FWOAN is that the Ottoman Sultan is constantly referred to as the Shah. It's such a strange error to me since even basic encylopaedias and history texts would indicate the title of the Ottoman ruler.
 
Always a good resource when talking about this book and spin-offs like For All Nails (retro SHWI archive) and @SpanishSpy's Scorpions in a Bottle:

@Johnny Pez's Sobel Wiki:


Interesting article:

 
I would suggest making Kranmer Associates just a really powerful company that is present in a Republic of the Philippines, and has many local politicians in its pockets.
 
Couple of DeviantArt maps for For All Nails, one by @B_Munro



I would suggest making Kranmer Associates just a really powerful company that is present in a Republic of the Philippines, and has many local politicians in its pockets.
Eh, I think they should still retain Taiwan as a power base.

That reminds me: admin Ian wrote out both a FWoaN timeline and a review/critique of the book, and provides this very good of context about Kramer that explains where Sobel was operating from when he wrote the book in the '70s:

That, however, brings me to the only really glaring problem of the whole timeline - Kramer Associates. Kramer basically starts out as a monolithic, government-supported corporation in Mexico, with control of a lot of important natural resources and their exploitation. Due to friendly relations with Mexico's government, it emerges to become the largest corporation in the world - and then it successfully diversifies, becomes a true multinational, and moves out of Mexico. At this point things begin to get very implausible - it just grows and grows and grows. By the end of the timeline, Kramer Associates is more powerful, and richer, than any nation except the CNA, it has effective control over many Pacific countries, it played a vital role in the global war, and it was the discoverer of the atomic bomb. Given the personalities and aims attributed to its leaders, it can basically be described as the Enlightened Supercorporation. It is far more successful than it has much reason to be, and that's after Sobel has a lot of things go very well for it throughout the timeline. The more I think about it the more annoying it becomes, actually - Kramer Associates is almost a toned-down, economic Domination of the Draka, in the sense that its leaders are too smart, it has too much technological success, and luck seems to go its way the great majority of the time.

This is, in actual fact, probably attributable to when the book was written (and by who). Sobel was a business historian, writing in the late 60s/early 70s. This was a period when the accepted view was that large, monolithic/monopolistic corporations worked very well, that command-based economic practices and pure Keynsian controlled economics was the road to success, and that the big old companies with governments in their pockets were around to stay. Of course, we have since learned that this view has profound flaws, both in and of itself and in terms of its relevance to the modern world. Bell was broken up, the Zaibatsu and their relationship with the government led to Japan's current economic problems, the Asian Tigers got hit with collapse due to problems their growth-oriented economies were not prepared for, resource-based cartels such as OPEC and DeBeers lost their power. And last but not least, we saw how the information revolution began changing our economy and in the process, who was on top of that economy. In record time, the grand old dinosaurs of the electronics and information businesses were crushed by the likes of Microsoft. Today we know a lot that Sobel didn't about the kind of problems Kramer Associates would experience, so what to him probably looked like an interesting and possible what-if, appears to us as incongruous and implausible as old science fiction novels that casually assumed the Soviet Union would be a competitive threat well into the 21st century.

Though funnily enough, in 2022 now, we're seeing the return of megacorps. Also, aren't sovereign wealth fund sort of like state-owned financial corporations, and are pretty big deals these days? Still far from inventing and holding a monopoly on nuclear bombs, though.

I always wanted to see a FWoaN crossover with the Draka, but thinking it over now, it would probably just be a nuke fest.

I bumped my old FWoaN and TPL crossover thread if anyone's interested:

 
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