Research for a TL - Breakup of Yugoslavia in 1928/9

Since I have joind this forum I have read several timelines that in one way or another discussed Yugoslavia but I have seen only three times (I think) a suggestion of it breaking apart in the interwar period.

The PoD for the timeline I am contemplating on is the "Assasination in the National Assembly" on June 20th 1928 of the representatives of the Croatian Peasants Party.

As most of you are aware the first Yugoslavia was a country plagued from the beining with two very opposed concepts of how should the country look and function. The Centralists and the Federalists/Confederalists. The first was chapioned by the Serbs and the later by the Croats. The main Croat political party was the Croatian Peasants Party (HSS). From 1918 to 1928 it was obstructed, forbidden and even took part in the goverement as an atempt to reconciliate. But in 1927 negotiatians and atempts to create a functioning state were seen as pointless and HSS left the goverement and returned to the opposition where they found allies in the Independent Democratic Party (SDS) of Svetozar Pribićević that represented the great majority of Serbs in Croatia. Both parties were opposed to the centralisation efforts of Belgrade and found common ground. HSS resisted on ethnic basis while SDS resisted on economic basis. So they formed a Peasant-Democratic Coalition (SDK) in late 1927 in hopes of resisting Belgrade and achieving their goals.

Following the news that an assassination had taken place in Belgrade massive demonstrations took place in Zagreb and almost every Croat town, resulting in at least 5 dead and dozens of wounded. Over the comming days deomnstartions and commemorations for the assassined were held throughout areas inhabited by Croats even though the Ministry of the Internal afairs had forbiden any gatherings. Such situation continued for more than a month when on August 1st SDK declared the Vidovdan Constitution void and all descisions of Belgrade outside former Kingdom of Serbia meaningless. The SDK demanded the return to the situation of December 1st 1918.

A few days later on August 8th Stjepan Radić the leader of HSS passed away from the wounds suffered during the Assassinaton in Belgrade. The funeral was the largest in recoreded Croatian history with around half a million people atending. The funeral turned into a massive political rally against the goverment with Svetozar Pribićević and Vlatko Maček (the new HSS leader) as speakers. In certain places the rally turned into demonstrations.

So here is the PoD. The Yugoslav Ministry of Internal afairs responds with an even stronger crackdown that turns demonstrations into clashes with numerous killed and wounded. In return the SDK mounts an armed ressistance, thourough political militas both parties (HSS and SDS) had along with units of Yugoslav army that were mostly made of ethnic Croats and Serbs living in Croatia on the territories where resistance would take place. Along with that the fleet was almost exclusevly manned by Croats. The ressistance is not aimed at independence but to the return of the December 1st status and restarting the negotiations of the form of Kingdom of SHS (Serbs-Croats-Slovenes) as Yugoslavia was still known back then. Though if reconciliation would not be possible an establishement or better to say re-establishemnt of Rebuplic of SHS (Slovenes-Croats-Serbs) might be possible.


So my questions is what repercutions would such an event have to the wider worlds. How would the neighbouring nations respond and would Kingdom of SHS completely colapse in the oncoming Great Depression.


Fire away gentlemen I am all ears.

Cheers
 
Mussolini will be enough pleased, with all this strife he will surely try to finance and help more extremist group possible in the hope to break up Yugoslavia or weaken enough to easily conquer it. If there is a repetition of the Spalato anti-italian riot he can have the excuse to invade or seize territory.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
And the neighbors will attack like vultures, directed by Benito Mussolini, with cameos from Hungary and Bulgaria.

Somebody might step in to take the other side - maybe Britain, France or the USSR

But I would think it would end in a proto-Munich where they all sign away the Vojvojdina, bits of Macedonia, and whatever bits Mussolini wants!

An independent Slovenia would be interesting in this period


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Somebody might step in to take the other side - maybe Britain, France or the USSR

But I would think it would end in a proto-Munich where they all sign away the Vojvojdina, bits of Macedonia, and whatever bits Mussolini wants!

An independent Slovenia would be interesting in this period


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Probably Yugoslavia will be divided as in OTL
Carelia between Italy and Austria.
Dalmatia to Italy
Montenegro protectorate of Italy
Kosovo to Albania
Macedonia to Bulgaria
Vojvoidina to Hungary who takes even bits of Slovenia and Croatia
The rest is divided by the two successor state of Yugoslavia: Croatia and Serbia.
Probably to smooth think with England and France Serbia will mantain right to access some Adriatic ports plus the road and rail to maintain contact with Serbia
 
I'm pretty sure Italy would want to dominate the new Croatian nation. I wouldn't dismiss an independent Slovenia altogether, if it's under Italian influence, but most likely the Slovenian territory would be split between Austria and Italy (with some minor parts to Hungary).
 
Would the neighbours really be that warlike? After all this is 1928/9 not 1920/1. The other question is would these countries have the ability to really dismember the country as you say? After all such actions would probably bring SDK and goverment in Belgrade togather (with heavy concesion from Belgrade) as both would be threatened.

The SDK were mostly representatives of the lower classes and were often seen as resisting the Belgrade burgoasie(sp). How would USSR react to potential ally on the Adriatic?

Edit@ also the break away territories would only have a Croatian plurality rather than majority so it might not be a "Croatian" state. After all Croats and Croatian Serbs are together in it.

Edit #2@ Territories of Croatia, BiH and Slovenia minus what was in Italian hands in 1931 had

Croats 3 035 949
Serbs 1 667 884
Slovenians 1 138 219
Muslims 719 006
Other 316 091
Total: 6 877 149
 
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Probably Yugoslavia will be divided as in OTL
Carelia between Italy and Austria.
Dalmatia to Italy
Montenegro protectorate of Italy
Kosovo to Albania
Macedonia to Bulgaria
Vojvoidina to Hungary who takes even bits of Slovenia and Croatia
The rest is divided by the two successor state of Yugoslavia: Croatia and Serbia.
Probably to smooth think with England and France Serbia will mantain right to access some Adriatic ports plus the road and rail to maintain contact with Serbia

IMHO this is a bit too much, and would take a war to achieve.
IMHO, Kosovo will remain in Serbia's hands, and Albania, Hungary and Bulgaria will get just a few crumbles.
I can easily believe Slovenia will be set up, and obviously Croatia will get its own state (how much real "independence" the two will have is open to discussion).
In a way it will be easier for Italy to get Dalmatia, since the Croats will be gently informed that it is the quid-pro-quod to achieve an independent state.
Montenegro will also be reinstated, and an Italian protectorate is in the cards
 
IMHO this is a bit too much, and would take a war to achieve
.

That was my scenario, civil strife plague the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, Benny see this as a good moment to achieve is objective and begin to make call to the government of Hungary and Bulgaria, he wait till there is a even filmsy casus belli or he invented one and we have another war in the balkan (really a think that we miss)

IMHO, Kosovo will remain in Serbia's hands, and Albania, Hungary and Bulgaria will get just a few crumbles.
I can easily believe Slovenia will be set up, and obviously Croatia will get its own state (how much real "independence" the two will have is open to discussion).
In a way it will be easier for Italy to get Dalmatia, since the Croats will be gently informed that it is the quid-pro-quod to achieve an independent state.
Montenegro will also be reinstated, and an Italian protectorate is in the cards

Yes in case of 'pacific' and 'spontaneus' separation it is a very probable division
 
I LIKE THIS IDEA!

Had a similar one myself, but I'm not very familiar with 1920's/30's Yugoslavia so I'd probably miss some stuff.

Obviously Mussolini is going to take this event as an opportunity to expand his position in and around the Adriatic. Though IMO he'll content himself to coastal regions and focus on diplomatically dominating the former Yugoslav republics, especially Croatia. Sure countries like Great Britain and France might try to intervene, but who do they back?

I don't see Austria intervening as it lacked the military might and political will at the time, but Hungary might...Also keep in mind that Albania and Italy were quite close at this time. Mussolini might land some troops in Albania to march north and "aid" the Albanians in recovering Kosovo (of course in exchange for more control over the state).

If you do decide to make a TL I will follow with much interest!
 
Why wouldn't Romania get in on the partition? Or Albania, for that matter?

?What would be Greece's position in all this?

IIRC, Romania has no territorial claims in Yugoslavia: I know this is hard to believe, but...

IMHO Mussolini will do better to mastermind a reasonable partition of Yugoslavia, rather than set up a free-for-all which could be at least very expensive.
Which is the reason not to involve Bulgaria or Greece :eek::eek: and go for another round of Balkan wars.
Mind, some little scraps could be thrown around, even to Albania: the operative word here is "scrap".
 
Romania had good relations with Serbia, we would support the royal government in Belgrade and mobilze our army to stop Hungary from doing anything in Yugoslavia.
 
Romania would want to block Hungarian and Bulgarian expansion in Yugoslavia, but if the Italians run the show, Romania would probably do nothing.

Croat nationalists were quite organized (and not just the fascist Ustasha), and the main reason they didn't create more chaos than they did OTL during the inter-war period was because they feared Italy and Hungary.
 
IMHO Mussolini will do better to mastermind a reasonable partition of Yugoslavia, rather than set up a free-for-all which could be at least very expensive.
Which is the reason not to involve Bulgaria or Greece :eek::eek: and go for another round of Balkan wars.
Mind, some little scraps could be thrown around, even to Albania: the operative word here is "scrap":

No, unfortunaly the operative word is Benny been reasonable
 
Romania claims Banat and parts of eastern Serbia proper.


OMG :eek:
This gives a new and stronger meaning to the word "Balkanisation".
However I do believe that the only way to a semi-peaceful partition of Yugoslavia requires the survival of a Serbia with at least the borders of 1913.
 
No, unfortunaly the operative word is Benny been reasonable

True. However Benny is 10 years younger in 1928 and (hopefully) more realistic. IMHO getting Dalmazia. the protectorate on Montenegro and probably Slovenia and at least a strong influence in Croatia would be a great coup.
 
True. However Benny is 10 years younger in 1928 and (hopefully) more realistic. IMHO getting Dalmazia. the protectorate on Montenegro and probably Slovenia and at least a strong influence in Croatia would be a great coup.

Yes it's really a great increse of power, influence and prestige for Italy and Mussolini personally ( and it's almost assured that this victory will not satiate his appetite, probably the contrary). Honestly i see UK and France are the most important factor in limiting Mussolini acquisition and playing smart, that nations will not want an eccessive destabilization on the balkans or a nation have too much power/influence, so Benny at least this time has more incentive at be cautious and listen what the more prudent and rational members of his entourage say...the problem is that outcome is not a given with him i say 70/30 for the smart move but only with Allies diplomatic pressure.
 
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