Second Mexican Empire Survives

[Historyman 14]

The basic idea is Benito Juárez is at some point captured and killed in 1864/1865 and the Mexican Republicans was put down. (Or Juarez joins Maximilian.) How will Maximilian rule? (I read he was too conservative for the liberals, but also too liberal for the conservatives.) Would his heir be one of his brother, Karl Ludwig, children? Or have children of his own? Would Paris influence end sometime in the mid-1880s/early-1890s? How would the US deal with this break in the Monroe Doctrine?

 

[AcaciaSgt]

I think determining how it survives is key to know how things may develop later.

Well, to start with, killing Juarez would certainly be demorilizing, but I'm not sure if it would ensure an eventual defeat of the Republicans. And a key factor is that it has to be done before the ACW ends otherwise it would mostly go as OTL. On the other hand, Maximillian had wanted to have Juarez join his government. Juarez, naturally, refused. But perhaps with some proper PoD's, Juarez could be swayed? That could also help Maximillian legitimize his government (granted, the Republicans would have a field day and fracture hard, reacting to Juarez's treason, in their eyes), which was another thing that could ensure the survival of the Empire.

I would also think that another way is to instead change the course of the ACW, either prolonging it or have the CSA win, so the US can't interfere in time. There was a time Juarez was already at the brink, residing in Paso del Norte (Ciudad Juarez), right at the border (though at the time border with the CSA). If things north don't shift favorable to him, and he's then forced to actually leave the country, that could also be a blow to the Republican cause.

 

[Historyman 14]

I think determining how it survives is key to know how things may develop later.

Well, to start with, killing Juarez would certainly be demorilizing, but I'm not sure if it would ensure an eventual defeat of the Republicans. And a key factor is that it has to be done before the ACW ends otherwise it would mostly go as OTL. On the other hand, Maximillian had wanted to have Juarez join his government. Juarez, naturally, refused. But perhaps with some proper PoD's, Juarez could be swayed? That could also help Maximillian legitimize his government (granted, the Republicans would have a field day and fracture hard, reacting to Juarez's treason, in their eyes), which was another thing that could ensure the survival of the Empire.

I would also think that another way is to instead change the course of the ACW, either prolonging it or have the CSA win, so the US can't interfere in time. There was a time Juarez was already at the brink, residing in Paso del Norte (Ciudad Juarez), right at the border (though at the time border with the CSA). If things north don't shift favorable to him, and he's then forced to actually leave the country, that could also be a blow to the Republican cause.

Hmm....Juarez joining with Maximillian would be good.

Not sure if I would what the CSA to win, but prolonging the Civil War would be good as well.

 

[Lalli]

Important thing is to keep USA out so long that Maximilian can ensure his power. Perhaps longer ACW or even victorious CSA, altough this is quiet implausible.

 

[dcontreras]

The basic idea is Benito Juárez is at some point captured and killed in 1864/1865 and the Mexican Republicans was put down. (Or Juarez joins Maximilian.) How will Maximilian rule? (I read he was too conservative for the liberals, but also too liberal for the conservatives.) Would his heir be one of his brother, Karl Ludwig, children? Or have children of his own? Would Paris influence end sometime in the mid-1880s/early-1890s? How would the US deal with this break in the Monroe Doctrine?

I believe Maximilian had already made arrangements for the succession by adopting one of Augustine Inturbide, (Mexico's first Empire Monarch,)grandsons. I don't recall, and please enlighten me if I am wrong, any of his Austrian nephews being included in the Mexican Second Empire's succession.

 

[eltf177]

I believe Maximilian had already made arrangements for the succession by adopting one of Augustine Inturbide, (Mexico's first Empire Monarch,)grandsons. I don't recall, and please enlighten me if I am wrong, any of his Austrian nephews being included in the Mexican Second Empire's succession.

He did, and it upset a lot of people. And Maximilian had to sign away his rights to the Austrian throne, so I don't see any likely contenders coming from Europe...

I don't see Juarez joining the Empire, but his death won't mean the end of the rebellion. Porfirio Diaz just gets power a bit earlier.

I agree, the War Between the States needs to go on a bit longer to allow Maximilian to consolidate power and prevent US interference. And the Franco-Prussian War needs to be butterflied away, Maximilian needs the French Foreign Legion badly...

 

[AcaciaSgt]

I believe Maximilian had already made arrangements for the succession by adopting one of Augustine Inturbide, (Mexico's first Empire Monarch,)grandsons. I don't recall, and please enlighten me if I am wrong, any of his Austrian nephews being included in the Mexican Second Empire's succession.

Maximillian didn't adopt Iturbide's grandsons to make them heirs. He wanted one of his nephews as heir. So the adoption was to put pressure on his brother, Karl Ludwig, to accept. And all that was because he and Carlota never had any sons of their own.

 

[dcontreras]

Maximillian didn't adopt Iturbide's grandsons to make them heirs. He wanted one of his nephews as heir. So the adoption was to put pressure on his brother, Karl Ludwig, to accept. And all that was because he and Carlota never had any sons of their own.

I don't know about this. I mean I could be wrong, but I believe Franz Josef never really was enamored wholeheartedly with his brother going too Mexico. True Carlota and Maximilian could never conceive, but I can't see any other Archduke in Austria taking the rest that Maximilian did.

He did, and it upset a lot of people. And Maximilian had to sign away his rights to the Austrian throne, so I don't see any likely contenders coming from Europe...

I don't see Juarez joining the Empire, but his death won't mean the end of the rebellion. Porfirio Diaz just gets power a bit earlier.

I agree, the War Between the States needs to go on a bit longer to allow Maximilian to consolidate power and prevent US interference. And the Franco-Prussian War needs to be butterflied away, Maximilian needs the French Foreign Legion badly...

I do agree with the above however. Diaz was a follower of Juarez, and would have come to power sooner in an untimely death. It is ironic he did not stay with, if he ever truly believed in, Juarez's political beliefs during his many years of Dictatorship.

 

[AcaciaSgt]

I don't know about this. I mean I could be wrong, but I believe Franz Josef never really was enamored wholeheartedly with his brother going too Mexico. True Carlota and Maximilian could never conceive, but I can't see any other Archduke in Austria taking the rest that Maximilian did.


I do agree with the above however. Diaz was a follower of Juarez, and would have come to power sooner in an untimely death. It is ironic he did not stay with, if he ever truly believed in, Juarez's political beliefs during his many years of Dictatorship.

Well, I would think that's probably why he made the adoption, partly to convince them of otherwise. (The other was to legitimize his own government)

But would Diaz carry the same weight Juarez did? I'm not so sure if they could've stayed so united without Juarez.

 

[dcontreras]

Well, I would think that's probably why he made the adoption, partly to convince them of otherwise. (The other was to legitimize his own government)

But would Diaz carry the same weight Juarez did? I'm not so sure if they could've stayed so united without Juarez.

I still don't believe any of the Hapsburg nephews would have gone against Franz Josef and crossed the sea to succeed to an uneasy throne that Franz Josef had little enthusiasm or confidence in. But I do agree with your thoughts on Juarez-Diaz. Both needed each other, Juarez popularity and political savy and Diaz's muscle.

 

[dcontreras]

I still don't believe any of the Hapsburg nephews would have gone against Franz Josef and crossed the sea to succeed to an uneasy throne that Franz Josef had little enthusiasm or confidence in. But I do agree with your thoughts on Juarez-Diaz. Both needed each other, Juarez popularity and political savy and Diaz's muscle.

And keep in mind, the nephews, including one Franz Ferdinand were still boys, and despite the presence of Crown Prince Rudolf, they and their father were only a few eye balls away from the Austrian throne itself.

 

[AcaciaSgt]

I still don't believe any of the Hapsburg nephews would have gone against Franz Josef and crossed the sea to succeed to an uneasy throne that Franz Josef had little enthusiasm or confidence in. But I do agree with your thoughts on Juarez-Diaz. Both needed each other, Juarez popularity and political savy and Diaz's muscle.

And keep in mind, the nephews, including one Franz Ferdinand were still boys, and despite the presence of Crown Prince Rudolf, they and there father were only a few eye balls away from the throne itself.

Yes, but Maximillian would still have tried (it's what happened in OTL, after all), which is the point. Besides, since this is a ATL topic, here he might have succeded in getting a nephew coming over, or he and Carlota could have a son. Actually, I've tried to search up, but couldn't find why exactly they didn't. Was either of them barren or something?

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Maximillian didn't adopt Iturbide's grandsons to make them heirs. He wanted one of his nephews as heir. So the adoption was to put pressure on his brother, Karl Ludwig, to accept. And all that was because he and Carlota never had any sons of their own.

I have never found anything to support this theory. When Max signed away his Austrian rights he basically put anyone from his family out of the Mexican line of succession, and if one of his nephews crossed the sea to Mexico that would cause an enormous headache unless said nephew also signed away his rights, which understandably most Hapsburgs were not eager to do.

It really seems that Maximillian intended to groom the boys as his heirs, partially to win the goodwill of the Mexican people, and partially to smooth over the difficulty that Carlota was barren. Max had plenty of mistresses, and by all accounts produced a few bastard children.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

To get the Second Mexican Empire to survive you need a few things to happen. Firstly Max needs to be seated more sec;urely on the throne (an actual Imperial government being established, and a real army being set up, not the half measures the French took OTL). Secondly the French actually have to engage in more nation building, rather than just looting the country for cash. Thirdly, the United States cannot intervene.

Historically in 1864-65 Juarez was on the ropes, controlling only the remote parts of Mexico and being unable to engage the French in open battle. He was very close to losing in 1865 until the United States started sending him cash and weapons, and making their displeasure known. The use of the American border as a shield protected Juarez and allowed his forces to outflank the Franco-Imperial forces in the north, and drive them south.

Another big problem is that the French essentially left Max to his own devices, and Bazaine tended to undermine the Mexican court at every opportunity in furtherance of his own objectives. He never really worked to create a Mexican Army Max could count on, and only did so at near the last possible minute. Essentially leaving Max with no one who could protect him or his rule and no opportunity to further his support in the country.

Max, was also not a good administrator. As a public figure people could certainly like him, but he was out of his depth when it came to running a government. I've read Carlota had a bit of a better grasp on practical matters, but her sex really prevented her from making any impact, and the men who Max appointed as administrators and advisers spent more time back biting and currying favor with the Emperor rather than dealing with the practical matters of state.

If Max had more time to establish his rule he might have been able to hold on.

Juarez though, would have to die. He was the rallying point for the Liberal cause as the elected president, his death would be demoralizing, and his commitment to the Republic was the strongest. While most Mexicans would have held their nose at working with the French and their foreign puppets, they would most likely have engaged in negotiations some time in 1866 had Juarez been killed in 64-65 as he would be hard to replace, and without any substantial foreign aid they would be running low on the means to continue resistance.

 

[AcaciaSgt]

If it comes to killing Juarez, how's this for a PoD?

In early 1864, Juarez had arrived at Monterrey. The governor of Coahuila & Nuevo León (at the time both were a single state), Santiago Vidaurri, eventually betrayed him (he was never much loyal to the Federal regime, he even tried to see if he could get his state join the CSA). In fact, when both men met in February 12, one of Vidaurri's sons outright tried to shoot him, then was joined in by the crowd. Thanks to Lerdo, Juarez and his men were able to make a hasty retreat. So how about things are less lucky for Juarez and company? Let's say Lerdo is unable to predict that, or a bullet manages to hit Juarez when they escape?