I am considering to do a Croatia-screw timeline with a PoD during the civil war around the year 1000. The result would leave Croatia reduced to her mountinuous regions that are of little to no value to anyone but the people living there. The PoD would result with the end of the royal line and the country becoming a Confederation of nobles on the road to becoming a republic by mid 12th century. What I am interested to know is how likely it is for this Croatia to keep a neutral spot like early Swiss confederacy and evade conquest by foreign powers. In the past with the exception of Turskish conquest land of the Croatian always came into possession of other power either through personal union, or because land right were sold to or passed on to foreigners by rulers of Croatia.
I mean this:
I mean this: