The Cold War to the Present day. Would the West have lost?

[Ato]

An interesting thought struck me this morning. At he basic premise is this: had by some timely reform of even happenstance the Soviet Union survived the crisis of the early 90's and continued on to the present day, and if Cold War had also continued even in a relaxed form of detente, would the present political and economic difficulties in the West have lead to it 'losing' the Cold War in a similar way to how the Soviet Union did in the 90s?

Would the presence of a concrete and globally significant alternative political and economic system to free market capitalism have resulted in mass popular demands for the implementation of socialist reform.
If such demands were made and acceded to would 'crash socialism' programs in the west and in the USA in particular have had as poor results as the crash democracy and capitalism ones did in the former USSR?

 

[anotherlurker]

What about China? Does the economic miracle still happen and how do they conduct their foreign policy? There were no issues with the Soviets any more but plenty with the West (Taiwan, troops in South Korea) so they might use their new found wealth to support the Soviet economy simply by their need to diversify their imports and exports.
What happens to West Europes and Eastern Europes demographics? Without the collapse of communism the East will enjoy rising population numbers for quite a while longer but how does Western Europe develop? The same as now, as in far below replacement rates and depending on immigration?
What happens in Africa? OTL they lost a lot of funding as both sides did not need them any more to push agains the other, so the situation in Africa might be a whole lot better with them avoiding premature deindustrializaiton.

IMO the world would be multipolar with 4 independant actors, EU, USA, Soviets and China. EU heavily leaning towards the USA and China leaning towards the Soviets.

 

[thevaliant]

I... err... your answer number 2 contradicts the question (if the Cold War continues, it cannot also end).

 

[Ato]

I... err... your answer number 2 contradicts the question (if the Cold War continues, it cannot also end).

It is meant in the context of the post. If the current political and economic crisis occurred during a continued Cold War, what would have happened?

Nevertheless I see you point, the wording is poor. Unfortunately I can't change it.

 

[DaveBC]

I think by 1990 the image of Soviet socialism in the West had become so irreparably tarnished and tainted that it would not offer a serious alternative political vision to any but the most die-hard leftists. It wasn't the 1930s anymore. The idealism had almost entirely faded away long before then.

You can't really have the vast wave of neoliberalism post-1990 with a Soviet bloc intact, not and be recognizable, but assuming something like that did happen, it seems to me far more likely that the Soviets would try to evolve into a hybrid market system analogous to China than that the West would become more like the USSR. Mind you I'm biased by the last 20 years of watching China do that, but even before the collapse itself, that seemed to be where Gorbachev's reforms would eventually lead.

 

[Ato]

I don't think the west 'collapsing' in this scenario would mean red banners on the White House and everyone calling each other comrade.
Rather it would be a a more successful version of the populist upsurges we have seen recently focused on demanding social and welfare reforms rather than fragmented as in too. And that with socialist parties now in power the major western nations would then withdraw from the direct competition of the cold war. Reducing their forces in Western Europe, dissolving NATO, and agreeing to at least limited nuclear disarmament.

From the Soviet point of view this could well look like a 'victory' despite the west not really being within their power sphere.

 

[WCDouglas]

By 1980 (possibility 1970) the "Soviet Union" (or if you prefer Soviet Collectivism) was terminal, it was simply a manner of time and how much damage they would do on the way to "dustbin". So the answer is the West either wins (with the OTL evolution of society and politics delayed 10-20 years, depending how late into the 90s they get...)) or the SU takes/damages the west on the way out.

Note, in the late 70's, early 80's they were Soviet "experts" both conservatives/hawks and liberals very quietly warning the politicians of this. I can remember reading in the New Republic (81-82, freshman year in college) an article where the author wrote; "the Soviet Union will not survive the twenty-century, the only question is do they take the rest of us down with them," and yes, in the early 80s that was chilling reading a left of center détente supporter write that.

 

[wtw]

By 1980 (possibility 1970) the "Soviet Union" (or if you prefer Soviet Collectivism) was terminal, it was simply a manner of time and how much damage they would do on the way to "dustbin". So the answer is the West either wins (with the OTL evolution of society and politics delayed 10-20 years, depending how late into the 90s they get...)) or the SU takes/damages the west on the way out.

Note, in the late 70's, early 80's they were Soviet "experts" both conservatives/hawks and liberals very quietly warning the politicians of this. I can remember reading in the New Republic (81-82, freshman year in college) an article where the author wrote; "the Soviet Union will not survive the twenty-century, the only question is do they take the rest of us down with them," and yes, in the early 80s that was chilling reading a left of center détente supporter write that.

I remember reading a potential wars in the former Warsaw Pact/ USSR states and the potential for civil war was high, scary times