The Inevitable Revolution - A British TL

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The Inevitable Revolution

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Part 1: The Prelude
John Major was elevated to the Cabinet by Margaret Thatcher in the 1987 reshuffle following her third election victory – and a second landslide. He was given the most junior role in Cabinet, that of Chief Secretary to the Treasury. But just 2 years later, in a surprise reshuffle, Major was given a Great Office of State by becoming Foreign Secretary, succeeding Geoffrey Howe.

Nigel Lawson had served as Thatcher’s Chancellor of the Exchequer since her 1983 landslide, but resigned suddenly in October 1989 after consistently clashing with the Prime Minister’s personal economic adviser. Impressed by his performance and loyalty, Thatcher elevated Major to become her Chancellor.

Despite three stunning victories, the backbenches of the Conservative Party were starting to grow discontented with her leadership. In Cabinet, Thatcher’s growing Euroscepticism and leadership style was causing dismay among some ministers. In the country, the economic boom of 1987 was fast evaporating with interest rates hitting 15% and inflation pushing 10%. In December 1989, she was challenged for the leadership by backbencher Sir Anthony Meyer. She won handily with nearly 90% of votes, but her political credibility was undermined with 60 Conservative MPs not supporting her.

1990 saw Thatcher’s popularity, and that of her government, wane considerably. The introduction of the poll tax was marked by riots across the country, most notably in Trafalgar Square. Thatcher’s “No! No! No!” response to the idea of European integration in the House of Commons on 31st October 1990 sparked Sir Geoffrey Howe’s resignation as Deputy Prime Minister the following day. Howe delivered a resignation statement in the Commons on 13th November where he set out how he believed Thatcher’s approach made it hard for ministers to negotiate for Britain’s interests in Europe. The dramatic speech was marked by cheers from the opposition benches. It was this speech that is still regarded as being pivotal in the events which immediately followed.

On 14th November, Michael Heseltine, who had resigned from Cabinet over the Westland Affair in 1986, announced that he would challenge Thatcher for the leadership. Thatcher contested the vote. To win, she needed a majority of votes and a 15% of the electorate (56 votes) margin over Heseltine. John Major was the proposer for Thatcher’s nomination papers. The vote took place on 20th November, while the Prime Minister was still in France. She won with 204 votes, but her margin over Heseltine, on 152, was only 52 – 4 short of the number needed to prevent a second ballot. In Paris, Thatcher stated her intention to fight the second ballot, “I fight on; I fight to win”, and her papers were driven to Major, who was at home recovering from a wisdom tooth operation, for him to sign.

On 21st November, back in London, Thatcher consulted her Cabinet one by one on the advice of her campaign manager Peter Morrison. Ministers agreed beforehand that they would take the joint view that they would support her in the second round but that they thought she would lose. Eventually, on the morning of 22nd November, Thatcher announced she would no longer contest the ballot and would resign as Prime Minister upon the election of her successor. Douglas Hurd, the Foreign Secretary, and John Major, the Chancellor, put themselves forward following her withdrawal.

A number of mistakes by Heseltine, including being photographed at his country mansion contrasting with humble Major, contributed to his undoing. Thatcher lobbied aggressively for Major to succeed her and on 27th November Conservative MPs voted in the second ballot, in which only a majority was needed to win. Major achieved 185 votes, with Heseltine on 131 and Douglas Hurd on 56. This was 2 votes short of an overall majority, requiring a third ballot on 29th November. However, within minutes of the second ballot both Hurd and Heseltine withdrew from the contest and Major was elected unopposed. Thatcher resigned the next day and Major became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on Wednesday 28th November 1990.

Major initially proved to be a success, winning an unprecedented fourth term for the Conservatives in 1992. But it was in that year of victory that his premiership began to sink with Black Wednesday shattering the view of his party being the one of economic competence. Within a year of his election victory, public opinion had turned entirely against Major and the government with Black Wednesday, rows over Europe, mine closures and high unemployment being cited as areas of dissatisfaction. Europe, its possible federation and the single currency dogged Major for the remainder of his premiership.
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I have planned extensively for this TL, unlike some of the others I have attempted, with some of the later stages still being developed. The POD is in the mid-1990s and the timeline will stretch to no later than 2025. Ii'm not sure how frequently updates will be posted but I'm hoping for at least one or two a week. So far I've scoped out at least 20 parts for this TL, though some of those may be broken down into smaller posts. So we'll see where we go. I hope you enjoy it.

I had wrestled with where to place this thread and so consulted with a moderator, CalBear, and the all-clear has been given for it to go here. But, if there is a change of mind now or at any point down the line I am more than happy for it to be moved to where the moderators feel it is best placed.

The focus will be primarily on developments in the UK, though I may - along the line - attempt to do a few bits on developments in other parts of the world, such as Europe and the US. If you have any ideas for other parts of the world, feel free to pass them on to me and I'll be happy to try and include them, with credit to you of course. Any comments or constructive criticism is welcome, either here on this thread or over message.

 

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Part 2: The 1995 Conservative Leadership Election

22nd June 1995: For many months John Major's premiership had been dogged by constant threats of a leadership challenge from both inside and outside of his Cabinet. Rebellious backbenchers had been causing trouble and issuing empty threats over a range of issues, primarily Europe. Despite being the anointed successor to Thatcher, Major had suffered a collapse of support on that wing of the party. Few there believed that he could unite and lead the party effectively. A range of possible challengers were briefed repeatedly to the press, but no challenge ever arrived. Frustrated at this situation, John Major called the press to the garden of Downing Street on 22nd June to deliver a surprise statement.

Let me just make a brief statement to you. I’ve been deeply involved in politics since I was sixteen. I see public service as a duty and if you can serve, I believe you have an obligation to do so. I’ve now been Prime Minister for nearly five years. In that time we’ve achieved a great deal, but for the last three years I’ve been opposed by a small minority in our party. During those three years there have been repeated threats of a leadership election. In each year, they have turned out to be phoney threats. Now the same thing again is happening in 1995. I believe this is in no one’s interest that this continues right though until November. It undermines the Government and it damages the Conservative Party. I am not prepared to see this party I care for laid out on the rack like this any longer. To remove this uncertainty I have this afternoon tendered my resignation as leader of the Conservative Party to Sir Marcus Fox, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, and requested him to set the machinery in motion for an election of a successor. I have confirmed to Sir Marcus that I shall be a candidate in that election. If I win, I shall continue as Prime Minister and lead the party into and through the next election. Should I be defeated, which I do not expect, I shall resign as Prime Minister and offer my successor my full support. The Conservative Party must makes its choice. Every leader is leader only with the support of his party. That is true of me as well. That is why I am no longer prepared to tolerate the present situation. In short, it is time to put up or shut up. I have nothing more to say this afternoon. Thank you very much.

There was no immediate indication of any heavyweight challenger from the Cabinet emerging. Michael Portillo, now seen as the standard-bearer of the right of the party, remained loyal to Major and confirmed he would be supporting the Prime Minister. Only 26th June, however, the Secretary of State for Wales resigned to launch a challenge. John Redwood had only been appointed to the Cabinet just over two years earlier in May 1993. In response, Cabinet ministers rallied around John Major and his allies warned that victory by any margin would see him continue as Prime Minister. Major himself hit back at his former colleague, calling him "malcontent" while his campaign team set to work immediately to seek to keep the number of abstentions as low as possible to avoid a second ballot under the rules which allies feared would see new challengers and Michael Heseltine emerge to snatch victory.

Redwood planted his flag firmly in the eurosceptic camp, stealing a march on Employment Secretary Michael Portillo. Friends of Portillo insisted that if there was a second ballot their man would contest it, but privately conceded that Redwood's candidacy in the first round was a significant setback. As for Redwood, he pledged the preservation of the Pound as Europe moved towards a single currency and promised a campaign with a "broad appeal" to the electorate. He also called for a repatriation of powers from the EU, but endorsed John Major's policy on Northern Ireland. Conservative MPs in marginal seats were targeted in particular by Redwood's campaign with leaflets entitled "No Change - No Chance" warning that failure to change leader now would see them lose their seats in the General Election due in 1997.

Baroness Thatcher, visiting Washington, did little to calm the atmosphere of menace facing Major said that both Redwood, who served as the head of her Downing Street Policy Unit, and Major were "sound Conservatives". She stopped short of an endorsement but praised Redwood for being "very articulate" and "very able indeed". Redwood was a "heavyweight personality" according to the former Prime Minister and she identified his policy of an independent pound as a 'true return' to Conservative policy.

Major, at a European summit in Cannes, told reporters that he would fight the campaign on "common sense" policies from the "centre-right". He attacked Redwood for repudiating policy that he helped to shape in Cabinet. He insisted he was not angry at Redwood but was intrigued by his stand: "John has sat in the Cabinet for the last two or three years. He knows what our policies are and he has sat there accepting our policies," he said. In the run-up to the vote in July, Redwood earned the support of The Sun who splashed their endorsement on their front page with the headline "Redwood versus Deadwood".

4th July 1995: Conservative MPs spent the day casting their vote in Committee Room 12 in the Palace of Westminster. To win outright, either Major or Redwood needed at least 165 votes (a majority) and a lead of 50 votes (15%) over the second-placed candidate. For the Prime Minister victory was vital, not only to secure his own position but to silence internal party opposition to allow a united front to be presented at the next election. If he was wounded but not ejected from the leadership, the big beasts of the party were expected to circle. Ahead of the result, the Prime Minister saw Michael Heseltine, the Trade & Industry Secretary, and Kenneth Clarke, the Chancellor, in Number 10. It was reported that Heseltine was offered the chairmanship of the party if Major won. Major himself had decided prior to the result that he needed a large margin beyond what the rules required in order to justify staying on. He set his personal target as 215 votes - two-thirds of the parliamentary party. If he received fewer than 215 he had resolved to resign. He wrote this number on some paper and placed it in an envelope and put it in his pocket.

The result of the ballot was due at 17:20. Outside the Palace of Westminster, huge crowds had gathered on College Green to hear the result relayed to them through a sound system. At 17:23, Sir Marcus Fox, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, announced the result.

I have to declare that out of a possible three hundred and twenty nine votes, three hundred and twenty nine colleagues have voted. For John Major, two hundred and eight. For John Redwood, ninety four. Abstained, fifteen. Spoilt, twelve. I declare John Major elected.

John Major had won decisively under the rules with over 60% of the vote and a lead over John Redwood of almost 35%. Immediately the questions began of whether his 63.2% was enough to see him clear of the water. Of course, Major had already set his target and he had fallen short and at 17:52 he, accompanied by his wife Norma, emerged from Downing Street to address the media. There he thanked the 208 Conservative MPs who had supported him, but acknowledged falling short of his personal target. He announced he would resign as Leader once and for all and would subsequently resign as Prime Minister upon the election of a successor.

By stepping down for good, Major allowed other members of his Cabinet to stand. Nominations reopened ahead of a second ballot in one week's time. Two ministers, who were always expected to stand given the chance, announced their candidacies the following day. Michael Portillo, the Employment Secretary, announced he was standing as he sought to regain the role of standard-bearer for the right from Redwood. Michael Heseltine, the Trade and Industry Secretary, also announced his bid for the top job for the second time after his bid to replace Thatcher faltered five years beforehand. A third minister, a wildcard candidate, announced their candidacy on 7th July: Gillian Shephard, the Education Secretary. She was not expected to perform strongly, let alone win, and was seen by observers as an attempt to position herself for a bigger job in the new government. John Redwood confirmed he would continue to be a candidate.

11th July 1995: Conservative MPs assembled once again in Committee Room 12 to vote for their new leader and the next Prime Minister. It was clear for many that Michael Heseltine was John Major's preferred successor, although he refused to say so publicly and maintained that whoever won would have his full support. Therefore, Heseltine was expected to pick up the bulk of Major's 208 votes. There had also been signs that Michael Portillo had been eating into the support of John Redwood with some eurosceptics conceding that Portillo was better placed than Redwood to unite the party going forward. This being treated as the second ballot of the contest, a candidate only needed 165 votes to win - a majority. It was not clear whether any of the four candidates would achieve that this time around, and it was up to Sir Marcus Fox to again announce the result.

I have to declare that out of a possible three hundred and twenty nine votes, three hundred and twenty nine colleagues have voted. For Michael Heseltine, one hundred and fifty four. For Michael Portillo, one hundred and twelve. For John Redwood, fifty one. For Gillian Shephard, twelve. In accordance with the rules, no candidate having received a majority of votes, Mr Redwood and Ms Shephard are eliminated. Mr Heseltine and Mr Portillo will proceed to a further ballot.

Michael Heseltine came out clearly on top, with a lead of over 40 votes over Michael Portillo. But he had fallen 11 votes short of a majority. Campaigning resumed for the third, and assumed final, ballot to be held two days later. Initially there were questions whether Portillo, like Heseltine and Hurd in 1990, would accept Heseltine's significant lead and withdraw to avoid the need for a third ballot. This was not done and in a message channelling Thatcher in 1990, Portillo said "We are in this fight and we are in it to win it".

13th July 1995: For the final time, the Conservative Party's MPs trooped to Committee Room 12 to cast their votes. One of the Michaels, Heseltine or Portillo, would be their new leader and Prime Minister. Throughout the morning, there had been speculation, fuelled by allies of Heseltine, that Portillo was going to win the election. Whoever won, no candidate was expected to go far beyond the 165 needed to win. There was also the unknown of abstentions and spoiled ballots. At least 2 MPs had privately confirmed they would abstain and that there were others of a similar mind. It was well known to both candidates' teams that these MPs could deprive anyone of a majority in this ballot and extensive lobbying was conducted to win as many votes as possible and keep abstentions low. For the final time, Sir Marcus Fox's words were broadcast live to inform the country of who their next Prime Minister would be.

I have to declare that out of a possible three hundred and twenty nine votes, three hundred and twenty nine colleagues have voted. For Michael Heseltine, one hundred and seventy. For Michael Portillo, one hundred and forty two. Abstained, elevent. Spoilt, six. I declare Michael Heseltine elected.

The result came as a surprise to some, who were sure that the numbers pointed only towards a victory for Portillo. But Hesletine, who had missed out in 1990, had finally reached the position he coveted. John Major made a short statement in Downing Street congratulating Heseltine and confirmed that he would travel to Buckingham Palace the following day to tender his resignation to The Queen.

 

[Nazi Space Spy]

The formatting and content is fantastic! Not only is it an engaging read, but the infobox is aesthetically fantastic

 

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Part 3.1: The Premiership of Michael Heseltine
The Premiership of Michael Heseltine began on Friday 14th July 1995, following the resignation of John Major. While Heseltine had been an MP since 1966 and served in ministerial or shadow ministerial roles since 1970, his elevation to become The Queen's 10th Prime Minister was a welcome breathe of fresh air for many who had grown tired of John Major and his government. Following his 1986 resignation over the Westland Affair and his 1990 leadership challenge against Margaret Thatcher, Heseltine had grown to be disliked by swathes of the membership and had poor public image. But his return to government under John Major saw him receive repeated ovations from attendees at party conference, good relations with the media and an improving public image. By the time of his arrival in Number 10, Heseltine brought new hope to Conservatives that the seemingly unstoppable tidal wave of a landslide defeat in 1997 to Tony Blair's Labour Party could be stopped and improve Tory fortunes going forward.

Entering Office: Upon becoming Prime Minister, Michael Heseltine made a brief statement to the country from Downing Street in which he thanked John Major for his 5 years of service as Prime Minister and pledged to continue the economic recovery that was ongoing following the recession earlier in the decade. There would be a new emphasis on 'social responsibility' and infrastructure spending. He called for unity in the party, saying that divisions over Europe should not dominate the next two years as they have the last three and said the key fault line of what to do about the single currency would be decided by the people in the next general election. Heseltine spent the afternoon and evening of his first day in office forming his Cabinet, which rewarded loyalty and saw two of his leadership rivals receive jobs.

Heseltine Cabinet
14th July 1995​

Portfolio	Incumbent
Prime Minister First Lord of the Treasury Minister for the Civil Service	The Rt Hon. Michael Heseltine MP
Deputy Prime Minister First Secretary of State	The Rt Hon. Michael Howard MP
Lord Chancellor	The Rt Hon. The Lord Mackay of Clashfern
Chancellor of the Exchequer	The Rt Hon. Kenneth Clarke MP
Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs	The Rt Hon. Michael Portillo MP
Secretary of State for the Home Department	The Rt Hon. Malcolm Rifkind MP
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food	The Rt Hon. William Waldegrave MP
Secretary of State for Defence	The Rt Hon. Peter Lilley MP
Secretary of State for Education	The Rt Hon. Stephen Dorrell MP
Secretary of State for Employment	The Rt Hon. Gillian Shephard MP
Secretary of State for National Heritage	The Rt Hon. John Gummer MP
Secretary of State for Health	The Rt Hon. Virginia Bottomley MP
Secretary of State for the Environment	The Rt Hon. William Hague MP
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland	The Rt Hon. Sir Patrick Mayhew MP
Lord President of the Council Leader of the House of Commons	The Rt Hon. Sir George Young MP
Lord Privy Seal Leader of the House of Lords	The Rt Hon. Viscount Cranborne
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster	The Rt Hon. Roger Freeman MP
Secretary of State for Social Security	The Rt Hon. Douglas Hogg MP
Secretary of State for Scotland	The Rt Hon. Michael Forsyth MP
Secretary of State for Trade and Industry President of the Board of Trade	The Rt Hon. Ian Lang MP
Secretary of State for Transport	The Rt Hon. Lynda Chalker MP
Chief Secretary to the Treasury	The Rt Hon. David Hunt MP
Secretary of State for Wales	The Rt Hon. Wyn Roberts MP
Minister without Portfolio Chairman of the Conservative Party	The Rt Hon. Brian Mawhinney MP
Chief Whip Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury	The Rt Hon. Alastair Goodlad MP

Public opinion of the Conservatives improved immediately, although only by a small amount, following the change in leadership. An ICM/Guardian poll on 8th July had the Conservatives on 32%, fifteen points behind Labour on 47% with the Liberal Democrats on 17%. In the House of Commons that was projected to lead to 409 seats for Labour, 193 for the Conservatives, 31 for the Liberal Democrats and 26 for the others - a majority for Labour of 159. However, the next ICM/Guardian poll on 5th August had the Conservatives on 35%, ten points behind Labour on 45% with the Liberal Democrats on 16%. In the House of Commons that was projected to lad to 380 seats for Labour, 234 for the Conservatives, 20 for the Liberal Democrats and 25 for the others - a majority for Labour of 101.

First Months: Within a week of entering office the Pension Act 1995 received Royal Assent, which brought in the controversial, but necessary change, to the state pension. The Act's main purpose was to improve the running of pension schemes in the United Kingdom following the review into their operations after the discovery that Robert Maxwell, the media proprietor who died in 1991, had embezzled a large amount of money from the pension fund of Mirror Group Newspapers. The Act also dealt with the ruling from the European Court of Human Rights that the discrimination against men by only having them become eligible for the state pension from age 65 compared to age 60 for women was illegal. The Act began a phased introduction of an equalisation of the state pension age over the course of 10 years.

On 23rd July, Prime Minister Heseltine dealt with his first major foreign policy issue as the decision was taken to send 1,200 British troops into the besieged Bosnian capital, Sarajevo. Sarajevo was one of the six United Nations designated safe havens in Bosnia to protect Muslim communities amid the ongoing Bosnian War, but by July 1995 Serbian forces were attacking all six of the enclaves and attempts by the West to prevent large scale loss of life failed. Earlier in July, two safe havens - Zepa and Srebrenica - had been lost to Serbian forces and between 11-22 July the Serbians massacred over 8,000 men and boys in a genocide with the 400-strong Dutch contingent of UN peacekeepers unable to prevent the atrocities. Bosnian Serbs had controlled access to Sarajevo for three years prior to British forces being deployed as part of the Task Force Alpha international mobilisation that was being ramped up after two French peacekeepers have been killed. The UN described this moment in the conflict as a "turning point", while Defence Secretary Peter Lilley insisted that there was "no shift" from peacekeeping to war fighting and that the troops were there to provide protection for the peacekeepers.

After the Srebrenica massacre, Michael Heseltine hosted NATO leaders in London for the London Conference to discuss new options for Bosnia. As a result of the conference, the UN Secretary General, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, gave the UN military commander, General Bernard Janvier, the authority to request that NATO carry out airstrikes, without consulting civilian UN officials. The North Atlantic Council and the UN also agreed to use NATO strikes in response to attacks on any of the other safe havens in Bosnia. The London Conference marked the start of planning for Operation Deliberate Force. On 28th August, despite expressing a will to accept a peace plan just hours before, Bosnian Serb forces carried out the second Markale massacare, firing five motor shells and killing 43 people. Two days later, NATO launched Deliberate Force, a sustained air campaign against the Bosnian Serbs, which involved bombing 338 individual targets. The NATO campaign, and intense pressure from the US and Russia, helped bring the warring parties to the negotiating table. From 1st-21st November, negotiations took near to Dayton, Ohio and a peace agreement was reached to bring an end to the conflict. Michael Heseltine joined the Prime Minister of Spain, President of France, President of the United States, Chancellor of Germany and Prime Minister of Russia for the formal signing of the agreement in Paris on 14th December.

Away from the war in Bosnia, intense focus was also being placed on the Littleborough and Saddleworth by-election. Conservative MP Geoffrey Dickens had died on 17th May and the by-election was scheduled for 27th July. The Conservatives fielded John Hudson as their candidate, with Labour standing Phil Woolas and the Liberal Democrats fielding Chris Davies. Davies' had been widely criticised for his conduct due to him openly campaigning to become the new MP while Dickens was alive and dying from liver cancer. Despite this, he emerged victorious in an early blow to Heseltine. The Liberal Democrats won 34.7% of the vote, with Labour on 31.0% and the Conservatives falling to third on 30.2%. Whilst it was a blow, the Conservatives retained their slim majority in the House of Commons.

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Unemployment data was released on 16th August that gave an early boost to Heseltine on the economy. The number of unemployed in the UK had fallen to 2,315,300, its lowest level for four years. Two months later, on 18th October, it had fallen further to 2,300,000. In early October, though, it was party conference season and Michael Heseltine delivered his leader's speech in Blackpool on 13th October to the adoration of the assembled party faithful. In his speech, Heseltine not only sought to build bridges with his former rival Margaret Thatcher by acknowledging that the day was also her birthday but set out to the party his plan for the country and how he intended to lead them to victory in the general election.

A Selection of Quotes from Michael Heseltine's Speech at the Conservative Party Conference - 13th October 1995​

"Left. Left. Left, left, left. That didn't work...About turn! Right [hopping on one foot]. Right. Right, right, right. But what they didn't tell is it was the Tories who were right, right and right again!" - Referencing his 1976 conference speech comparing Labour to a one-legged army limping away from the wreckage of their policies "All in a bid for political power. Well I'll just tell you this: I'll tell you who you can't stitch up; I'll tell you who you can't bully; I'll tell you the people with whom there will be no secret deals. Because the British people are not for sale," - Claiming Tony Blair will do anything to gain office, including secret arrangements with the unions and backroom deals with BT "So I say to this conference: get off your seats, go back to the constituencies, come out of your fox holes, take the battle to the enemy. We're fighting for a fifth term in office, and we're going to get it," "Today might be Friday the thirteenth but it is also Margaret Thatcher's 70th birthday, so the omens aren't all bad. She won us three election victories. We look towards our fifth with her legacy intact. May I wish her many happy returns on this special day and hope for many happy returns for us all come the election," "We meet today as a united party. We are healing our divisions. We are renewing ourselves and renewing this country! Mr Blair predicted last week that at this conference we will be waving the Union Jack. Well..of course we are. We have never waved another flag, and we never will. We are proud of our country and all we have achieved. Mr Blair will seek to win by persuading the people that this great country is on its knees. Clapped out. Beaten up. He shouldn't find that too difficult, though. That's the way it always has been - when the Labour Party is in charge" "In this country, we receive more investment than any other in Europe. Indeed, today The Queen is opening Samsung's massive new development in the North East. Daewoo, Black and Decker, Fujitsu, Nissan, NBC and Siemens have all decided that their future is here - in Britain. But you won't hear Labour talking about this. Oh no. That's because these companies didn't invest in a socialist Britain - they wouldn't come near us with a barge pole. They set up here because it's Conservative Britain. And the only way to ensure we keep them here and have them be followed by others is to keep Britain Conservative."

Heseltine set out the 'Millennium Challenge' of dealing with new welfare problems, fast changes in technology, shifts in global power and greater competition. To help meet this challenge, Britain must become the 'enterprise centre' of Europe he said. He also set out a new economic priorities, including investing in infrastructure as opposed to prioritising tax cuts. He also announced a plan to reform the Community Action workfare scheme and invest in education and healthcare.

The Budget was delivered by Chancellor Ken Clarke on 28th November. It had been rumoured that a supposed planned cut to income tax would be scrapped, but this was not the case. The "sensible" and "socially responsible" Budget was designed, he said, to sustain the long-term economic recovery. Inflation was to be 3.5% from 1996-97 with GDP growing by about 2.5%. The deficit was around 3%, or about £21bn. Spending was increased on schools (+£800m), hospitals (+£1bn) and the police (enough for 5,000 more police officers). The basic rate of income tax was cut from 25p to 24p as part of the efforts to meet the commitment to a 20p basic rate. The rate of tax on savings income was cut to 20p. The threshold for inheritance tax was froze at just over £150,000 for a year. Whiskey duty was cut. The tax changes taken altogether for a household with one working adult earning average wage would save around £170 a year. Clarke restated his commitment to prosperity and jobs, and cited the falling unemployment and hundreds of thousands of new jobs being created, most of them full-time jobs. He compared UK unemployment to other EU states: 20%+ in Spain, 10%+ in Italy and France and 8.5% in Germany, all compared to just over 8% in the UK. The "tax on jobs", employers' National Insurance Contributions, was cut again and paid for by taxing fly tipping. Clarke told the country in the traditional Budget broadcast that "we must work together for a future in a changing and competitive world where we in Britain will be better off", "I want better public services. I want secure jobs. I want prosperity that will last. I want tax cuts that are for real. A Britain that will truly be the enterprise centre of Europe".

President Bill Clinton and First Lady Hillary Clinton arrived in the UK for an official visit. The couple met Her Majesty The Queen at Buckingham Palace and visited 10 Downing Street where Clinton and Heseltine held talks. President Clinton was also given the honour of addressing both Houses of Parliament. The highlight of the visit came on 30th November when, by touching down in Belfast, history was made with Clinton becoming the first sitting US President to visit Northern Ireland. This historic visit, driven by the President's personal interest in Northern Ireland that he developed during his time at Oxford University, saw the couple visit various areas of Belfast in addition to Londonderry, Armagh and Omagh. President Clinton visited the Falls Road where he shook hands with Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams. The handshake was protested against by Heseltine's government in London until just an hour or two before it took place. Speaking at a large rally at Belfast's City Hall, President Clinton praised the "peace process" that was developing and denounced terrorists as "yesterday's men". Michael Heseltine had been strongly advised not to join Clinton in Northern Ireland and he heeded this advice. The twin-track peace initiative being developed with Dublin was still in the early stages and Downing Street did not want Heseltine and Gerry Adams to meet before it was agreed and there was internal criticism, particularly in the Foreign Office, of Clinton attempting to seek the limelight as an Irish peacemaker. Relations between the US and UK had been strained since permission was granted to let Gerry Adams visit the US in 1994 and meet with Clinton, but this first meeting between Heseltine and Clinton was judged to be a 'huge success' and the two men were reported to get on very well on both a personal and professional level.

 

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Part 3.2: The Premiership of Michael Heseltine
1996 was to be the first full year of Michael Heseltine's time in Number 10, and potentially the last with the General Election due in 1997. On 22nd January the first MORI poll of the year was published, which had Labour on 43% and the Conservatives on 31% and the Liberal Democrats polling high on 23%, still a strong lead for Labour of 12% but compared to 12 months beforehand when Labour was on 55% and the Conservatives were on 27% it was a significant improvement in fortunes for the party. The modelling of the MORI poll in 1995 showed Labour could win over up to 520 seats with the Conservatives falling to just 90 seats and the Liberal Democrats on 25 - a huge Labour landslide of 383 seats. In 1996, though, the modelling of the poll had Labour on 389 seats, the Conservatives on 191 and the Liberal Democrats on 52 - still a Labour landslide, but of 119 seats. Michael Heseltine reminded his Cabinet frequently of the challenges they faced in trying to win a fifth Conservative term in office, but was adamant that it could be done.

Heseltine looked to the past 16 years of Conservative government and election success as inspiration for what could come but vowed not to be held hostage by the past ideologies of Thatcher and Major though 1996 marked the operational start of one of John Major's major projects: the privatisation of the railways. On 4th February the first two passenger train operating companies began the operation of their service franchises following the break-up of British Rail. South West Trains and Great Western Trains began operating their franchises on that day. The first South West service from Twickenham to London Waterloo was at 05:10 on the morning of the 4th and marked the first privatised schedule train to operate in the United Kingdom since 1948. Since privatisation, British railways have carried more passengers than ever before and become the safest in Europe. Customer satisfaction with the railways eventually hit over 80%, though fares became considerably more expensive and levels of punctuality were inconsistent.

Heseltine's priority wasn't the trains, though. He wanted to renew the country for the new millennium. He saw urban regeneration and investment in infrastructure and public services as the route to not only achieving that but achieving election success. Toward the end of February, Heseltine and his Environment Secretary William Hague relaunched the National Garden Festival. The festivals were initially launched in 1980 by Heseltine when he was Environment Secretary under Margaret Thatcher, and were part of the cultural regeneration of the large areas of derelict land left in Britain's industrial districts during the 80s and 90s by deindustrialisation. Based on the German post-war Bundesgartenschau, a festival was held in a different town or city every two years, with five held in total: Liverpool 1984, Stoke-on-Trent 1986, Glasgow 1988, Gateshead 1990 and Ebbw Value 1992. Though they came at costs ranging from £25 million to £70 million each, millions of tourists flocked to each festival. Liverpool 1984 attracted 3.4 million visitors, while Glasgow 1988 attracted over 4 million. The re-launch was part of a "national effort" to support "left behind" towns and cities. The first of the new festivals, Heseltine said, would take place in 1997 with a three-year gap to the next one in 2000 before they returned to being a bi-annual event. Bidding for the event opened in May. Blackburn in Lancashire was selected as the site of the 1997 festival. It was opened on 27th April 1997 by Her Majesty The Queen and ended on 26th October. Figures reported that 5.2 million people had visited the festival over its 6 month run, making it the most successful - overtaking Glasgow. The festival's costs came in at around £65 million and a legacy project led by the local authority has seen the site retained and maintained serving as a local tourist site, modern housing estate and green space.

New funding was also announced for the City Challenge initiative. This initiative brought together the councils of Britain's deprived inner city and urban others together with private sector developers. Launched in 1992, it was praised as having focused regeneration efforts and for being significant in the evolution of the UK's urban policy. The bottom-up strategy was seen as more sustainable than other schemes and helped to empower local residents to help determine what should happen in their communities. The money that was allocated through the initiative saw investments in jobs, training, homes and recreational spaces to renew communities. Initially, council partnerships could bid for £37.5 million in funding. Heseltine increased this mount to £50 million. A new push on the creation of development corporations was also announced for urban areas and new towns, with slight changes in how corporation members were appointed. Heseltine said there would be a new emphasis on locally-appointed members, approved by central government, because of the wider knowledge of the community those individuals would have. Heseltine also committed the government to helping to fund local infrastructure projects in and around the regenerated areas, on top of money allocated through the City Challenge and other schemes, and further increases in funding for health services, social services, schools, the police, roads, pavements and cycle paths. All these measures taken together were eventually found to have contributed to the creation of over 200,000 new jobs, billions in new private investment, reductions in crime, a healthier population and improved academic performance by schoolchildren. With many of the consequences starting to be felt around the time of the new millennium and just afterwards, the effects were called the 'Millennium Boom'.

​

Thomas Hamilton, aged 43, had been seen scraping ice off of his van outside of his home in Stirling at around quarter past eight on the morning of Wednesday 13th March 1996. Shortly afterwards he drove 5 miles north where he parked his van near to a telegraph pole in the car park of Dunblane Primary School. He cut the cables at the bottom of the pole, which served nearby houses, before making his way across the car park towards the school buildings. Hamilton went toward the north-west side of the school to a door near the toilets and the gymnasium, which he went to after entering the building. He arrived armed with four legally-held handguns - two 9mm Browning HP pistols and two Smith & Wesson M19. 357 Magnum revolvers - alongside 743 cartridges of ammunition.

In the gymnasium was a class of 28 Primary 1 pupils preparing for their PE lesson with 3 adult members of staff. Upon entering, Eileen Harrild, the PE teacher in charge of the lesson, prepared to confront Hamilton. Before she could, Hamilton started shooting rapidly and randomly and shot Harrild in her arms and chest and she tried to protect herself. While Hamilton continued shooting, Harrild - along with 4 injured children - escaped into the open-plan store cupboard at the side of the gym. Gwen Mayor, the teacher of the Primary 1 class who had been having their PE lesson, was shot and killed instantly. Mary Blake, a supervisory assistant, was shot in the head and both legs but also managed to escape to the store cupboard. From entering the gym and walking a few steps, 29 shots had been fired with 1 child dead and several injured.

Hamilton then moved his way up to the east side of the gym and fired 6 shots as he walked and fired 8 more shots back towards the opposite end of the gym. He then proceeded to the centre of the gym. He fired 16 shots at point-blank range at a group of children who had been severely wounded by his earlier shots. A Primary 7 pupil was shot at and injured by flying glass after hearing loud bangs and screams and looked inside the gym to see what was happening. Hamilton also fired shots towards a window next to the fire exit, possibly at an adult walking across the playground and then fired 4 more shots in the same direction after opening the fire door. He briefly left the gym and fired 4 more shots towards the library cloakroom, injuring Grace Tweddle, another member of staff. In a mobile classroom close to the fire exit where Hamilton stood, Catherine Gordon saw him shooting and instructed her Primary 7 class to get onto the floor before Hamilton fired 9 shots into the classroom, hitting books and equipment and striking a chair where a child had been sat seconds before. He then reentered the gym where he dropped the pistol and took out one of the revolvers. He put the barrel of the gun in his mouth, pointed it upwards and pulled the trigger, killing himself.

In his 3-4 minute shooting spree, Hamilton had killed 1 member of staff and 15 pupils, with another pupil later dying en route to hospital. Ronald Taylor, the headmaster of the school, made the first call to the police at 9:41am after being alerted by assistant headmistress Agnes Awlson to the possibility of a gunman after she heard screaming and saw cartridges on the ground. A call for ambulances was made at 9:43am with the first ambulance arriving at 9:57am. In total, 18 people were killed in the massacre, including the gunman, and 15 were injured.

Michael Heseltine, who was hosting the Middle East Summit in Downing Street, was alerted to the events in Dunblane as soon as possible and later that morning made a short statement in which he condemned the attack as a "sickening, evil act" of "almost unimaginable horror" and said "my heart goes out to those parents and their families, and their teachers too, who will have to cope with what has happened today". Amidst the mourning taking place across the United Kingdom, there grew a push for new restrictions on gun ownership in Britain and public petitions calling for a total ban on private ownership of handguns and an official inquiry gained significant support.

Lord Cullen was charged with carrying out the inquiry into the massacre. His report recommended that the government introduce tighter controls on handgun ownership and consider whether an outright ban on private ownership would be in the public interest in the alternative. The report also recommended changes in school security and vetting of people working with children under 18. The Home Affairs Select Committee responded to the report by supporting for call for restrictions on gun ownership but stated that an outright ban on handgun ownership was not appropriate. In response to this, Heseltine introduced the Firearms (Amendment) Act 1997, banning all cartridge ammunition handguns - except .22 calibre single-shot weapons in England, Wales and Scotland.

​

On 20th March 1996 the Health Secretary, Virginia Bottomley, announced that variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob diseas (vCJD), a fatal disorder with occurs naturally in a small percentage of people in later life but which killed 19-year-old Stephen Churchill in May 1995, was caused by eating bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or mad cow disease, infected meat. One week later, on 27th March, the European Union imposed a worldwide ban on the export of British beef. From May through to autumn 1996, Michael Heseltine fought repeatedly with EU leaders to get the ban lifted. He was unsuccessful at every attempt. One million cattle were incinerated because of the ban and controversy in Parliament was immense. As a result of the ban, the UK and other EU states engaged in trade controversies, dubbed the "beef war". The ban would remain in place for a decade. The UK exported over 276,000 tonnes of beef in 1995, with a value of £650 million. The economic hit to beef producers from the ban was significant and was an issue fraught with danger for Heseltine who had hoped to put arguments over Europe to bed until the general election. While eurosceptics in the Conservatives were more outraged than others, his party was largely united on the issue alongside other parties in roundly condemning the ban.

On 2nd May 1996, voters across many parts of England headed to the polling stations for that year's round of local elections. It was the first major electoral test for Michael Heseltine after 10 months in power. The 1995 local elections in England, Scotland and Wales were an unmitigated disaster for the Conservatives under John Major, losing over 2,000 seats, nearly 60 councils and getting just 25% share of the projected national vote. The battleground in 1996 looked slightly more favourable to the Conservatives. 3,030 council seats on 150 councils were available in 1996. Once all the votes had been counted, Labour emerged on top with 1,564 councillors (+286), the Conservatives on 722 (-373), the Liberal Democrats on 609 (+118) and other parties and independents on 135 (-31). The Conservatives held on to all their councils. Labour gained control of 8 councils and the Liberal Democrats gained control of 3 - all from no overall control. The projected national vote share had Labour on 41% (-6 on 1995), the Conservatives on 32% (+7) and the Liberal Democrats on 25% (+2). In a General Election, those numbers would leave Labour on 365 seats (a majority of 71), the Conservatives on 210 and the Liberal Democrats on 56. While the Conservatives did lose almost 400 seats, it was their best performance in local elections, in terms of change in seats and share of the projected vote, since 1992 and was held up as a sign that Michael Heseltine was leading a fightback for the Tories with one year to go until the general election. Opinion polling for the election at the time of the local elections had Labour on 42%, the Conservatives on 33% and the Liberal Democrats on 22%.

​

On Saturday 15th June 1996, the Provisional IRA detonated a 1,500kg lorry bomb on Corporation Street in Manchester city centre. It was the largest bomb detonated in Great Britain since the Second World War and was designed to target the infrastructure and economy of the city. Damage was estimated to be £700 million by insurers at the time. 212 people were injured, but no one was killed. A telephone warning from the IRA was made 90 minutes before the bomb detonated and at least 75,000 people were evacuated from the area. Bomb squads were deployed but were unable to defuse the device in time. The 17-month ceasefire greed with the IRA had ended in February 1996 with a truck bomb attack on Canary Wharf in London. Peace talks had begun only five days before the bombing in Belfast - the IRA intended the attack to be a demonstration of opposition to the talks excluding republicans. The Manchester bombing, happening a day before Russia was scheduled to take on Germany in Euro '96 in the city, was condemned by the British, Irish and American governments. 5 days afterwards, the IRA issued a statement from Dublin claiming responsibility for the attack but said it regretted causing injury to civilians. Several buildings close to the explosion were damaged beyond repair and had to be demolished while many more were closed for considerable periods of time for extensive repair. Michael Heseltine condemned the bombing as a "barbaric" terrorist attack and visited the site of the bombing on 26th June and pledged full government support in rebuilding and opened an international competition for designs for the redevelopment of the area - won by a consortium led by EDAW in November 1996. Most rebuilding work was completed within 3 years and the bombing has been viewed as the catalyst for Manchester turning into a modern, vibrant powerhouse city.

The Russia v Germany match in Euro '96 went ahead as scheduled on 16th June. Germany won 3-0 and eventually topped their Group (C) with 7 points. In Group A, England topped, also with 7 points. The quarter-finals of the tournament began on 22nd June. England opened against Spain at Wembley. By full time, it was 0-0, but England won on penalties 4-2 and proceeded to the semi-finals. The second match that day was between France and the Netherlands. Again, by full time it was 0-0, and France went through on penalties - winning 5-4. The next day, Germany took on Croatia at Old Trafford and won 2-1. And that same day Czech Republic took on Portugal in Birmingham and won 1-0. France faced the Czechs in the semi-final on the afternoon of 26th June at Old Trafford. At full time it was 0-0, but the Czechs won on penalties 6-5. That evening, at Wembley, it was a highly anticipated semi-final between England and Germany. It was 1-1 at full time and England pulled off a surprise win on penalties 6-5 to knock out the favourites to win the tournament. England and the Czech Republic faced the final on 30th June. It was the first European Championship for the Czechs since the break-up of Czechoslovakia. England won 1-0 to win its first European Championship and first tournament since the World Cup in 1966.

For the Prime Minister, England's Euro '96 victory marked the start of a 'summer of love' for the Government. On 12th July, South African President Nelson Mandela began his four-day state visit to the United Kingdom. Margaret Thatcher had once denounced Mandela as a "terrorist" and described the possibility of him one day ruling South Africa as a pipe dream out of "cloud cuckoo land". Michael Heseltine, though, was delighted to welcome Mandela who was worshipped as a hero by Britons across the country. His visit was more like a festival, of which Heseltine was more than happy to participate. Brixton, home to one of Britain's largest black communities, was decorated as though it were a coronation. President Mandela and The Queen swept through London on his final day in a carriage procession, adored by thousands in the crowds. The traditional state dinner was scrapped at Mandela's request and replaced by a party at the Royal Albert Hall. Mandela was also given the honour of addressing both Houses of Parliament in Westminster Hall, unlike Presidents Clinton and Chirac who used the Royal Gallery of the House of Lords. In the aftermath of his triumphant visit, Heseltine praised Mandela as one of the "greatest statesmen of our age" and said "Britain and South Africa are renewing our intense bond of friendship that will persist for generations to come".

In the autumn and winter there was more good to come for Heseltine. In September, an ICM poll had Labour on 41%, the Conservatives on 37% and the Liberal Democrats on 20%. It was described as "temporary love-in" for the government, but if borne out in an election would likely see Labour only achieve around 350 seats (a majority of 41) with the Conservatives staying comfortably above 250 seats, leaving them in a position to make Blair a one-term Prime Minister. On 14th August, unemployment was revealed to have fallen to 2,126,200 - the lowest since summer 1991 - and in December it had fallen to below 2,000,000. The Queen's Speech on 23rd October and the Budget on 26th November saw Heseltine lay out the sort of agenda he wanted to take to the country in 1997: more increases in spending on key public services, expanding right to buy and reducing tax relief on mortgage interest payments. At party conference in Bournemouth in October, Heseltine, buoyed by positive trends in polling and the 'summer of love', was greeted like even more like a hero than before by the party faithful. There he had unveiled other policies, including the promised reforms to the workfare scheme Community Action. Reforms included new controls on housing benefit to under 25s, investment in training and more support for those working in benefit offices. Under the reforms, particularly targeted at those who have been unemployed for more than two years, there would be incentives to help find a job, accompanied by training. If a job can't be found jobseekers would be offered a 3 month place on a community programme as a step back to regular employment. People on the scheme would receive an allowance equal to their benefit, plus an additional £15 a week. Those who refuse to participate, but are physically able to do so, risk losing their benefits. In benefit offices, staff were promised more protection by the installation of screens, more cameras and security guards.

​

 

[Airesien]

Great start, looks really interesting!

 

[ES1702]

Part 3.3: The Premiership of Michael Heseltine
1997 was the make or break year for Michael Heseltine. By the end of May, he would have had to go have gone to the country in the general election. There, tens of millions of Britons would decide whether Heseltine will have a full term in office with his own mandate and own manifesto or whether nearly two decades of Conservative rule would be brought to an end. The polling highs of the autumn of 1996 had subsided by the start of election year. The first NOP poll of the year in January had Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 34% and the Liberal Democrats on 22%. At the first Cabinet meeting of the year, Heseltine was reported as telling ministers that "we might still be down but we are not out yet - far from it".

Although a date for the election had not yet been set, campaigning for it was well underway. On 20th January, Labour Leader Tony Blair and his Shadow Chancellor Gordon Brown made a commitment to not raise the basic rate of income tax from the 23p it had been lowered to in November's Budget and promised that the top rate would remain at 40p - causing discontent from some backbenchers and union leaders who were pushing for a 50p rate on the rich. Brown also said he wanted to introduce a new 10p rate of tax and committed to follow the public spending plans set out by the Conservative government until 1999. All in an attempt to neuter the usual attack line from the Tories of Labour being the party of tax and spend. Blair also set out a "new deal for the future" for business, pledging to leave most of Thatcher's 1980s reforms intact if industry joined the government in reforming education, welfare and infrastructure. Chancellor Ken Clarke attacked the proposals as "beyond belief", adding that Labour had already made £30bn in unfunded promises yet had "fought all the way" against his own attempts to curb spending. "Hell will freeze before Gordon Brown could control spending and keep tax down," Clarke said.

For the government, there was more encouraging news on the economic front with unemployment falling to the lowest level since January 1991 in January 1997 at 1,884,700 and falling again to 1,800,000 in March, the lowest level since 1990. On 25th March, though, there was slightly less welcoming news resulting from one of the sleaze scandals during Major's time in office. The report into the 'Cash for Questions' scandal by Sir Gordon Downey was published on 25th March. The two Conservative MPs at the heart of the scandal, Neil Hamilton and Tim Smith, were both pressured into announcing they were standing down at the imminent general election. Hamilton and Smith were cleared in the report, but significant damage to their image was already done. Ian Greer, who was alleged to have bribed the MPs to ask parliamentary questions on behalf of Harrods owner Mohamed Al-Fayed, was also cleared. At the start of April, the Nursery Education Voucher Scheme came into operation, which guaranteed government-funded contributions to the cost of preschool education for 4-year-olds. The controversial scheme offered parents vouchers worth up to £1,250 to buy provision of their choice. This was the last major policy from the government that was implemented before the election began.

Thursday 24th April
Prime Minister Michael Heseltine travels to Buckingham Palace to ask Her Majesty The Queen to dissolve Parliament for a General Election on Thursday 22nd May ​

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Ah, a Heseltine premiership...

 

[ES1702]

Part 4: The 1997 General Election
Prime Minister Michael Heseltine returned to Downing Street after a brief visit to Buckingham Palace on 24th April and confirmed he had asked The Queen to dissolve Parliament for the General Election, set for Thursday 22nd May - the latest possible date for Britain to go to the polls. Parliament was dissolved on Monday 28th April, officially starting the three-week campaign. At the opening, Labour was polling an average of 42%, with the Conservatives on average scoring 33% and the Liberal Democrats on 21%.

Early on in the campaign, on 1st May, local elections were held in England. It provided the first view, in real votes, of the mood of the public as they prepared to vote in the election. 3,292 council seats were available on 56 councils in this set of local elections. The abolition of county councils and the creation of unitary authorities in some areas is believed to have contributed to Conservative success in these elections. The Tories won 1,387 seats (+459), Labour won 1,255 (-43), the Liberal Democrats won 604 (-314) and others won 46 (-102). The projected shares of the vote if it were a general election had Labour on 39% (-2 on 1996), the Conservatives on 35% (+3) and the Liberal Democrats on 22% (-3).

Heseltine opted to leave the election until the last possible moment, and go for as short a campaign as possible, in order to capitalise on the reasonably healthy position of the Conservatives in the polls. Two years ago, the Conservatives were 30% behind Labour in the polls, his 21 months in power had seen the Conservatives manage to climb back to keeping the Labour lead consistently under 10% and opening the campaign with a 9% deficit. Whilst confident that he could win the election, he had long been preparing himself for a defeat and hoped to keep Tony Blair's majority under 100 seats and his lead in the vote under 10%. The Conservative manifesto, "Britain Is Booming", emphasised stability and set out Heseltine's vision for a 'new Conservatism'. With a fifth majority Conservative government, Britain would become a "beacon of equal opportunity for all" with investments in public services and infrastructure, tax cuts targeting families and the least well-off, increases in the state pension, a new pension scheme for young people and new housing. On Europe, the Conservatives were explicit that further moves to centralise decision making or to remove Britain's opt-outs or veto would be rejected, but on the single currency Britain's options would be left "open" and a decision would be taken when all the facts were available - there would be no participation in the single currency without the "explicit approval" of the British people through a referendum.

​

Labour sought to run a slick and centrist campaign, emphasising the splits seen in the government over the 1990s and appealing to centrist Tory voters by offering policies commonly associated with the right such as a crackdown on crime and a greater emphasis on fiscal responsibility. The "vision of national renewal" was set out in the Labour manifesto, "New Labour, Because Britain Deserves Better" and repeated many of the themes set out in the "New Labour, New Life for Britain" manifesto published in 1996. Pledges on the NHS, jobs and schools were at the heart of the Labour campaign. A minimum wage would be established, NHS spending increased, waiting lists cut, class sizes reduced, taxes caped or cut and efforts to get 250,000 under-25s off benefits and into work made. There would also be a campaign to reform the EU and put Britain in a leadership role in the bloc and decentralisation at home in the UK with devolution offered to Scotland and Wales in referendums, a strategic authority and elected Mayor of London and referendums to ask the people in the English regions whether they want devolved regional government. There would also be an independent commission to recommend a proportional alternative to first past the post for elections to the House of Commons and those two options put to the people in a referendum and hereditary peers stripped from the House of Lords.

While Labour focused its attacks on the Tories on the themes of disunity and threats to the NHS, the Tories used Labour's adoption of more centre-right policies as an attack on Blair and New Labour. Heseltine regularly castigated Blair for "stealing our clothes" and told voters that if they wanted fiscal responsibility, low taxes more jobs and a crackdown on crime then they should vote for "the party that has always believed in those things rather than the party that only taken it up in the last 5 years because it was clear they had lost the argument and it was politically convenient to do so". Heseltine also claimed that a Labour government would be "held to ransom" by its more left-wing backbenchers, pushing for 'extortionate' spending increase, higher taxes and looser restrictions on trade unions. Heseltine had challenged Blair to a television debate before the campaign, but a deadline set by Labour to achieve a settlement with broadcasters on the format of the debate passed without agreement. Heseltine used this as a personal attack on Blair repeatedly, regularly calling him "Blair the barmy chicken". Public polling found Blair's apparent refusal to take up the offer of a debate had damaged his popularity, though it was already so high that he still remained the most popular politician in the country. As 22nd May approached, polling (which was for the Great Britain vote) showed Labour still with a strong lead and Blair still on course to become the first Labour leader to win a general election since 1974. Labour were averaging 42%, the Conservatives averaging 32% and the Liberal Democrats averaging 22% - a Labour lead of 10% (a potential majority of 89) and a swing of 9% from Conservative to Labour compared to 1992.

​

9:55pm, 22nd May 1997: The familiar theme of "Arthur" opened the BBC's election night coverage. Across the country, millions settled down to discover who had won the election, among them Tony Blair in Sedgefield and Michael Heseltine in Henley. Host David Dimbleby remarked that "for weeks we've seen the politicians slugging it out together, and tonight at last we hear the voters' verdict as they tell us who's won". Nerves were building across the campaigns as the clock ticked down to 10pm and the close of polls and the results of the exit poll that asked 14,000 voters in 200 constituencies how they voted.

10pm: The Exit Poll: Tony Blair to be Prime Minister. Labour Landslide Likely.

Exit Poll (GB% Share) Labour: 44% (+9) Conservative: 31% (-12) Lib Dem: 21% (+3) Labour Lead +13% Swing of 10.5% Con to Lab

Exit Poll (Commons Seats) Labour: 391 (+118) Conservative: 200 (-143) Lib Dem: 41 (+23) Others: 27 (+2) Labour Majority of 123

The Exit Poll was met with cheers in Sedgefield and despair in Henley. If it was right, Heseltine had not only lost the election but had failed in his attempts to keep the Labour lead below 10% and Labour majority below 100, though it was a result significantly better than what John Major would have achieved had he still been leader he thought.

Throughout the night as results came in, the news was slightly better for the Conservatives than the exit poll had forecast with Labour and the Liberal Democrats underperforming in some areas. At 1am, Sedgefield declared its result and Tony Blair was easily re-elected on 67.8% of the vote, a huge 24,000 vote majority over the Conservative candidate on 19.7%. In his speech, he thanked all of those who had supported him and voted for him and said he felt a great sense of honour, responsibility and humility. He said the likely result of the election was a "vote for the future, it is not a vote for outdated dogma or ideology of any kind, it is a vote for an end to divisions, an end to looking backwards".

Big names on the Conservative benches were falling under what seemed to be a Labour landslide. Gyles Brandreth lost his seat in City of Chester, that result perhaps symbolically pushing Labour over the 330 seats needed for a majority at 03:11. The Wales Secretary Wyn Roberts lost his seat in Conwy. Edwina Currie lost her seat in Derbyshire South. The Leader of the House of Commons, Sir George Young, lost his seat in Ealing Acton. Sebastian Coe lost his seat in Falmouth and Camborne. The Party Chairman Brian Mawhinney, appearing alongside Heseltine frequently in the campaign, lost his seat in Peterborough. Scotland Secretary Michael Forsyth lost his seat in Stirling. Attempts by Labour and the Liberal Democrats to unseat Cabinet big beasts such as Deputy Prime Minister Michael Howard, Foreign Secretary Michael Portillo and Home Secretary Malcolm Rifkind all proved unsuccessful.

Michael Heseltine's Henley constituency declared its result at 04:15, as Labour's celebration at the Royal Festival Hall in London got into full swing. In his speech, Heseltine conceded the election to Tony Blair saying he had telephoned Blair shortly beforehand and said the Labour Party had an "extremely successful evening" and wished Blair every good fortune in the responsibilities he had going forward. Britain is a "great country", Heseltine said, and wished Blair every success in maintaining the "extremely good" economic conditions Labour was inheriting - indeed, they were the best economic conditions ever inherited by an incoming government. The Conservatives would be a "vigorous" opposition going forward, Heseltine said. "We have had four great victories over the last eighteen years, but tonight we have been defeated. We accept that and we listen to the voice of the electorate and will reflect on that going forward and look forward to the day that we return to government".

By the time all of the results were counted, Labour was left with a landslide victory and a majority of 85 seats in the new House of Commons, the third largest majority in the party's history after the 1945 victory under Clement Attlee and the 1966 victory under Harold Wilson. After 18 years of trying, Labour had successfully convinced the public that they would usher in a new age of prosperity with their organisation, sense of optimism and policies all aligning perfectly. The victory was not as big as some had anticipated at various stages over the 3 years of Blair's leadership but it was a large victory nonetheless. The Conservatives suffered their worst result in terms of seats since 1945, when Winston Churchill won 197 seats. In terms of votes, the 33.4% of the vote they achieved across the UK was their worst performance since 1918 when they achieved 33.3%.The Liberal Democrats increased their vote share and achieved the highest number of seats for any UK Liberal party since 1929, though with 34 seats it wasn't quite the breakthrough that Paddy Ashdown had hoped for. In terms of Great Britain share of the vote, Labour won 42% (-2 on the exit poll), the Conservatives won 34.2% (+3.2 on the exit poll) and the Liberal Democrats won 19.8% (-1.2 on the exit poll). The UK swing was 7.6% from Conservative to Labour, the largest swing since 1945.

Michael Heseltine travelled to Buckingham Palace on the morning of Friday 23rd May to tender his resignation to The Queen and advise her to invite Tony Blair to form a new government, an invitation which he accepted. 18 years of Conservative government and Michael Heseltine's 22 months in Number 10 had drawn to a close. A new era for Britain was beginning.

​

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

You did better than Major IOTL, so, be happy with that, Mr Heseltine.

 

[Airesien]

So the Tories look like they're in much better shape for the next election and could even come back in the mid-2000s. Although it depends on who they pick as leader.

 

[Bogdanorog223]

I enjoyed your attention to detail covering a Heseltine premiership. Something that seemed possible a couple of times but a well-rounded and forensic description really are the bread and butter of TLs. Looking forward to the next updates!

 

[Fenrisúlfr]

Really interesting TL so far! I love your style of writing, looking forward to seeing where you take this.

I was thinking for a minute you were going to give us a hung parliament in 1997 or something similar. I was trying to imagine the possibility of no devolution, it would change the fabric of Scottish and Welsh society completely!

Did the Tories lose all their seats in Scotland and Wales as OTL?

 

[ES1702]

Really interesting TL so far! I love your style of writing, looking forward to seeing where you take this.

I was thinking for a minute you were going to give us a hung parliament in 1997 or something similar. I was trying to imagine the possibility of no devolution, it would change the fabric of Scottish and Welsh society completely!

Did the Tories lose all their seats in Scotland and Wales as OTL?

I'm glad you're enjoying it! As for the Tories, they held on to 2 of their Welsh seats and 6 of their Scottish seats.

 

[Unknown]

I guess some kind of Labour victory was inevitable in 1997, IMO (and I don't know much about British politics myself--I'm from Texas)...

Hope Princess Diana avoids her OTL fate...

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

If the Conservatives elect someone who is far more against mideast wars than the OTL leadership, they could steal the anti-war mantle from Blair and get into power by running against the Iraq war

That would be unique and interesting

 

[BigVic]

Blair still wins 1997 but with a smaller landslide than OTL. Interesting TL

 

[KaChoo49]

In OTL Heseltine had an attack of Angina the day after the 1997 GE, which is why he didn't run for the Conservative Party leadership after Major stepped down. Will this be butterflied away, maybe down to Heseltine having better access to healthcare as PM, and perhaps allow him to stay on as leader through opposition?

 

[IndefatigableRN]

Please tell me Ken Clarke gets it!!!!

 

[Politibrit]

If the Conservatives elect someone who is far more against mideast wars than the OTL leadership, they could steal the anti-war mantle from Blair and get into power by running against the Iraq war

That would be unique and interesting

Ken Clarke was regarded as the standard bearer of the Tory left in the post-97 period, and was notable for opposing the Iraq War. In this situation, where the leader is still decided by Tory MPs, and Heseltine has successfully averted the huge landslide of OTL (which I'd guess would mean more moderate MPs keeping their seats) I could definitely see him winning.

However, it should be said that it would be extremely difficult for a Tory leader, regardless of their own feelings on middle east interventionism, to successfully own the anti-war mantle, for the simple reason that its virtually impossible for a leader to get their party to adopt a policy that is opposed by 90% of its MPs.

If Clarke or anyone else with similar views was leading the Tories in 2003, I suspect they would either be forced to grant a free vote on the war, and quietly agree to stick with it if the Tories win the next election. If they did not, they would be toppled before Saddam was. Either way, the result is probably a significantly divided party that would probably ultimately do worse than OTL. From a purely electoral standpoint, the outcome of OTL, where the Tories voted for Iraq but then everyone forgot about it and pinned the blame on the government, was probably the best realistic result for them.