WI: 2008 Russia Sanctions after War with Georgia?

[CountDVB]

More than a few people look at the Ukraine debacle at having its roots in the war between Georgia and Russia back in 2008. After all, Russia probably figured if they weren't gonna be stopped in Georgia, why not in the Ukraine? Of course, we then got economic sanctions against Russia and so on.

Which leads to the question, what if sanctions were placed on Russia for what they did over in Georgia back in the Summer or Fall of 2008? What effects could that have been, especially with the Recession on the horizon?

 

[Chris S]

Well the problem there is that in 2008 and 2009 the EU itself could see that Georgia responded quite disproportionately to South Ossetians provocations and incidents that had been occurring for some time with a major artillery attack on Tskhinvali. Their 2009 independent fact finding mission said as much and even divided their assessment of Russia's actions into what occurred in the immediate aftermath of Georgia's large scale artillery barrage on the South Ossetian capital and the later actions that including pushing it Gori and Poti (in both cases they also said that Russia's actions were far from justified, but especially the later actions).

You really can't get enough EU members to support sanctions on Russia alone for that mess back in 2008. The way things were it would have been very easy for countries opposed to sanctions on Russia to point to what Georgia did as reasons to either:

A. Not sanction Russia at all

B. Sanction both Russia and Georgia

The thing is that B was not an option that countries wishing to sanction Russia would take because even though it would largely reflect the EU's view of how both countries had some amount of responsibility.

 

[CountDVB]

Well the problem there is that in 2008 and 2009 the EU itself could see that Georgia responded quite disproportionately to South Ossetians provocations and incidents that had been occurring for some time with a major artillery attack on Tskhinvali. Their 2009 independent fact finding mission said as much and even divided their assessment of Russia's actions into what occurred in the immediate aftermath of Georgia's large scale artillery barrage on the South Ossetian capital and the later actions that including pushing it Gori and Poti (in both cases they also said that Russia's actions were far from justified, but especially the later actions).

You really can't get enough EU members to support sanctions on Russia alone for that mess back in 2008. The way things were it would have been very easy for countries opposed to sanctions on Russia to point to what Georgia did as reasons to either:

A. Not sanction Russia at all

B. Sanction both Russia and Georgia

The thing is that B was not an option that countries wishing to sanction Russia would take because even though it would largely reflect the EU's view of how both countries had some amount of responsibility.

So even if the United States wanted to for one reason or another, it's unlikely the EU would've done it up until the Ukraine incident, correct? What about something regarding the cyberwarfare?

 

[Chris S]

So even if the United States wanted to for one reason or another, it's unlikely the EU would've done it up until the Ukraine incident, correct?

Yes, that seems very doubtful. There was a enough doubt surrounding the events that getting EU sanctions would be hard to do. Even for Ukraine there were still some countries in the EU which were not keen on sanctions.

What about something regarding the cyberwarfare?

Well then it wouldn't have anything to do with the sanctions pertaining to the war in Georgia. I suppose the EU could institute sanctions in 2008 for cyber attacks, but then they would need proof beyond doubt again about the Russian government doing those attacks and not just highly skilled private Russian hackers (who might or might not be "working towards the Kremlin" as it were whether or not the Russian government actually wanted such actions done or not). In the case of the Russo-Georgian War and what happened in Crimea there were Russian Army personnel (with the army being an arm of the state and directed by the government) clearly involved and the Russian state was clearly seen by all the world on public television to be doing something.

For cyberwarfare the Russian government can actually deny state involvement, whereas for the deployment of the army they really can't (and even with Crimea they stopped pretending that the little green men weren't Russian soldiers after they were secure in their position).

 

[CountDVB]

Yes, that seems very doubtful. There was a enough doubt surrounding the events that getting EU sanctions would be hard to do. Even for Ukraine there were still some countries in the EU which were not keen on sanctions.

Well then it wouldn't have anything to do with the sanctions pertaining to the war in Georgia. I suppose the EU could institute sanctions in 2008 for cyber attacks, but then they would need proof beyond doubt again about the Russian government doing those attacks and not just highly skilled private Russian hackers (who might or might not be "working towards the Kremlin" as it were whether or not the Russian government actually wanted such actions done or not). In the case of the Russo-Georgian War and what happened in Crimea there were Russian Army personnel (with the army being an arm of the state and directed by the government) clearly involved and the Russian state was clearly seen by all the world on public television to be doing something.

For cyberwarfare the Russian government can actually deny state involvement, whereas for the deployment of the army they really can't (and even with Crimea they stopped pretending that the little green men weren't Russian soldiers after they were secure in their position).

Hmmm... fair point. Thank you for sharing your information! I am curious if you can ascertain what would happen if the sanctions are placed though?

Would it screw up Russia’s economy given the oncoming Recession?