WI: More successful Siberian Uprising (1866)

[GauchoBadger]

Unfortunately, my only English lang source for this is wiki, so... i'll just post this link here.
What if the July 1866 uprising of Polish political prisoners/exiles in Siberia, sometimes known as the Irkutsk Uprising, had gained more momentum, perhaps due to more things going according to plan?
Would the Russian imperial government have to send a larger expedition to crush the rebels? If this also fails, how would an independent "Siberian Republic" develop?
If the rebels are still crushed, but have managed to gather more territory into their hands and form a provisional government before that, will this have any impact on Siberian identity (like how the Rio Grande do Sul rebellion in 1835 under Bento Gonçalves helped kickstart the Brazilian state's regional identity)?

 

[alexmilman]

Unfortunately, my only English lang source for this is wiki, so... i'll just post this link here.
What if the July 1866 uprising of Polish political prisoners/exiles in Siberia, sometimes known as the Irkutsk Uprising, had gained more momentum, perhaps due to more things going according to plan? Would the Russian imperial government have to send a larger expedition to crush the rebels? If this also fails, how would an independent "Siberian Republic" develop?

In Russian it is called "Кругобайка́льское восста́ние" because the Poles in question had been working on construction of the road around Baikal Lake.

The plan was not to create any kind of a republic but to flee to Mongolia and then across China to the Pacific Coast with expectation to sail to the US and then to Europe. A total number of the Poles engaged in the road construction amounted to 700. There was no need to send extra troops from anywhere because the local resources had been quite adequate to the task: the main group was defeated by a detachment of 80 soldiers and, besides the soldiers, the area had been patrolled by 2 brigades of the Transbaikal Cossack Army and there were approximately 2,500 local peasants and Buriats patrolling the area. It does not look like the rebels got any sympathy from the locals, especially after they started killing their sheep and taking them hostages.

 

[GauchoBadger]

In Russian it is called "Кругобайка́льское восста́ние" because the Poles in question had been working on construction of the road around Baikal Lake.

The plan was not to create any kind of a republic but to flee to Mongolia and then across China to the Pacific Coast with expectation to sail to the US and then to Europe. A total number of the Poles engaged in the road construction amounted to 700. There was no need to send extra troops from anywhere because the local resources had been quite adequate to the task: the main group was defeated by a detachment of 80 soldiers and, besides the soldiers, the area had been patrolled by 2 brigades of the Transbaikal Cossack Army and there were approximately 2,500 local peasants and Buriats patrolling the area. It does not look like the rebels got any sympathy from the locals, especially after they started killing their sheep and taking them hostages.

It seems to me like the Tongzhi emperor would not want to sour relations with Russia too much by lending a hand to a few Polish rebels. Could a weird situation develop in which the rebels end up stuck in Mongolia and form an adventurer state there?

 

[EnvarKadri]

It seems to me like the Tongzhi emperor would not want to sour relations with Russia too much by lending a hand to a few Polish rebels. Could a weird situation develop in which the rebels end up stuck in Mongolia and form an adventurer state there?

With only 700 men or less?