WI: Nazis "liberate" Ukraine

[pattersonautobody]

The thread about the Red Army versus Wermacht soldier, and the OT discussion about the Finns, got me thinking about a WI Ukraine was a co-belligerent? The POD is that when Hitler goes mad and wants to fire everyone for not taking Moscow, a coup kills him and the SS. The new government seeks to end the war without having Germany get bombed by Stalin, so they make all the conquered territories friendly satellite states to act as a buffer.

Now, I'm not looking to see how this might win the non-nazis the war. WHat I want to see is how stable Ukraine's government would be, how lousy would their army be, and how expensive would it be for the Germans to prop them up? Would they be much more trouble than it would have been just to rule them with an iron fist and forcefully conscript some Ukrainians into the Waffen SS?

 

[Hashoosh]

If this is happening in December '41 isn't the damage already done to Ukraine?

Edit: talking about the Einsatzgruppen, with Babi Yar as a notable example

 

[Tom Colton]

For a start, they'd need an alternative to the Hunger Plan.

 

[takerma]

It will not work as an independent state. However doing this and in general treating slav population everywhere in a decent way will give Germany a lot more reserves of men, will remove partisans from equation and in general will help quite a bit. As it was large amount of soviet soldiers fought on german side.

This is happening in 1942? It would have helped if they started doing it right from the start, might be too late at that point

 

[pattersonautobody]

I don't think we can change the POD without making it where the Nazis are non-nazis and they never invade to begin with.

So, if the Germans after the winter grant the Ukrainians "independence," is it a major liability that results in the Ukrainians wanting to join the Russians then? What could the Germans realistically do to salvage the situation? How lousy would the Ukrainian military be? Could the Germans even produce enough weapons to arm them or would they be sporting French and dutch surplus?

 

[Drewbdu]

I don't think we can change the POD without making it where the Nazis are non-nazis and they never invade to begin with.

So, if the Germans after the winter grant the Ukrainians "independence," is it a major liability that results in the Ukrainians wanting to join the Russians then? What could the Germans realistically do to salvage the situation? How lousy would the Ukrainian military be? Could the Germans even produce enough weapons to arm them or would they be sporting French and dutch surplus?

The Ukrainians would much rather be governed by a puppet of Germany than be controlled by the Soviets, from what I have gathered. If the people in these occupied territories are treated halfway decent by Germany, than Stalin would have a lot harder time winning the war, and reasserting control over reconquered land would be hell.

If whoever takes over after Hitler pushes for a Brest-Litovsk instead of outright conquest, then they might just get what they want.

 

[Napoleon IV]

It will not work as an independent state. However doing this and in general treating slav population everywhere in a decent way will give Germany a lot more reserves of men, will remove partisans from equation and in general will help quite a bit. As it was large amount of soviet soldiers fought on german side.

This is happening in 1942? It would have helped if they started doing it right from the start, might be too late at that point

By 1942 it is too late. The Germans had already brutalized the Ukrainians, crushed the Ukrainian nationalists, and destroyed much of Ukraine through anti-partisan activity and starvation. The Ukrainians are going to view this independence only slightly better than the French viewed the Vichy regime or the Italians viewed the Italian Social Republic.

 

[pattersonautobody]

Yet, the Italian puppet state had an effective military of sorts as did Vichy. Plus, both of these countries were in theaters of war where the Wallies were their enemies. A Ukraine, that gets independence after the Nazis stop brutalizing them after six months have the option of making nice with a power that looks like will win the war or holdout for Russia. If they don't hold out for Russia, then they know they are enemies and it will be a fight to the death. Stalin's approach to dealing with collaborators is a big motivator to work with the Nazis.

 

[pattersonautobody]

OUN

I just read up a bit on the OUN and I'm starting to think tht even if the Nazis were brutal occupiers for half a year, the Ukrainians would end up being hard fighters against the USSR regardless. The actual Ukrainian resistance fought for years and in good numbers. If handed a state outright, there would probably be a lot of infighting and a decent sized military to oppose the USSR. If the Germans were to maintain the right to transport forces through the region and establish military bases, they will get less loot, but they would probably have a sizeable Ukrainian force that would be a defensive deterrent against the Russians.

 

[King Augeas]

Mu understanding is that Ukrainian food stocks could be used to feed the Wehrmacht or Ukraine, but not both, although I'm not sure whether it reflects insufficient food or insufficient logistics.

 

[thaddeus]

I don't think we can change the POD without making it where the Nazis are non-nazis and they never invade to begin with.

So, if the Germans after the winter grant the Ukrainians "independence," is it a major liability that results in the Ukrainians wanting to join the Russians then? What could the Germans realistically do to salvage the situation? How lousy would the Ukrainian military be? Could the Germans even produce enough weapons to arm them or would they be sporting French and dutch surplus?

at what point did they realize maybe not a great idea to have invaded Poland? and eliminated their army? (which Germany would not need to equip)

my scenario is always to invade Romania instead 1939 and attempt to leverage Poland into Axis (or at least co-belligerent like Finland)

IMO Ukraine would only be helpful if Moscow captured but fighting continues? a regime could be helpful in Ukraine to pacify area.

(not that it's a bad idea to arm Ukrainians otherwise when forced to defensive war)

 

[Matteo]

The thread about the Red Army versus Wermacht soldier, and the OT discussion about the Finns, got me thinking about a WI Ukraine was a co-belligerent? The POD is that when Hitler goes mad and wants to fire everyone for not taking Moscow, a coup kills him and the SS. The new government seeks to end the war without having Germany get bombed by Stalin, so they make all the conquered territories friendly satellite states to act as a buffer.

Now, I'm not looking to see how this might win the non-nazis the war. WHat I want to see is how stable Ukraine's government would be, how lousy would their army be, and how expensive would it be for the Germans to prop them up? Would they be much more trouble than it would have been just to rule them with an iron fist and forcefully conscript some Ukrainians into the Waffen SS?

You have a contradiction that is summed-up in the word "nazi".

A non-nazi Germany could wage an anti-soviet war through which Ukraine gains its independance.

A nazi Germany invades the USSR to conquer a lebensraum (vital space) for the germans and to inflict massive ethnic cleansing at the expense of the slavs that it considers as an inferior race.

And in fact, if Germany had not been run by the nazis, it would not have gone to war against the USSR.

 

[Shaby]

Mu understanding is that Ukrainian food stocks could be used to feed the Wehrmacht or Ukraine, but not both, although I'm not sure whether it reflects insufficient food or insufficient logistics.

Pretty much both. Germany could not produce sufficient food for the population. And even if it was possible, the logistics of the Operation Barbarossa were insufficient to provide the army with enough food for people and horses (German horses pretty much required steady diet of grains to perform at perk efficiency, i.e. drag artillery, ammunition and other stuff). In the planning stage, when confronted with this, planners came up with the Hunger Plan.

 

[Michele]

It will not work as an independent state. However doing this and in general treating slav population everywhere in a decent way will give Germany a lot more reserves of men, will remove partisans from equation and in general will help quite a bit.

It won't. Food.

 

[pattersonautobody]

You have a contradiction that is summed-up in the word "nazi".

A non-nazi Germany could wage an anti-soviet war through which Ukraine gains its independance.

A nazi Germany invades the USSR to conquer a lebensraum (vital space) for the germans and to inflict massive ethnic cleansing at the expense of the slavs that it considers as an inferior race.

And in fact, if Germany had not been run by the nazis, it would not have gone to war against the USSR.

WHich is why the POD is that a coup takes over, essentially wants out of the war, and views taking a defensive posture with the Russians bleeding themselves white against German satellites as the way to go.

We already know the Baltic states will fight for their own land and can raise significant numbers of men (relative to their size) when push comes to shove. We also know that Belarus would likely be a lost cause as they were very rebellious against the Germans and would likely welcome the Russians back in, so they would need to be propped up.

The question is, would Ukraine be a dependable satellite if they were granted independence by early 1942?

"By the autumn of 1944, UPA forces enjoyed virtual freedom of movement over an area of 160,000 square kilometers in size and home to over 10 million people and had established a shadow government."

They suffered over 200,000 casualties fighting by mid 1945. They had to be a somewhat serious fighting force to control that much territory and lose that many men. They might have been seriously bad, but serious nonetheless.

So, if they fought that hard and collaborated with the Germans in 1944-45, why wouldn't they in 1942, especially when given more of a country and no Soviets are in it?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I suppose if Hitler was cool with the UPA when they first invaded they could utilize them:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army

In a memorandum from August 14, 1941 the OUN (B) proposed to the Germans, to create a Ukrainian Army “which will join the German Аrmy ... until the latter will win” (preferable translation: "which will unite with the German Army ... until [our] final victory"), in exchange for German recognition of an allied Ukrainian independent state.[41] The Ukrainian Army was planned to have been formed on the basis of DUN (Detachments of Ukrainian Nationalists - Druzhyny Ukrainskykh Natsiоnalistiv) and specifically on the basis of the “Ukrainian legion”, at that time composed of two battalions “Nachtigall” and “Roland.” These two battalions were included in the Abwehr special regiment “Brandenburg-800”. However, these proposals were not accepted by the Germans, and by the middle of September 1941 the Germans began a campaign of repression against the most proactive OUN members.

At the beginning of October 1941, during the first OUN Conference, the OUN formulated its future strategy. This called for transferring part of its organizational structure underground, in order to avoid conflict with the Germans. It also refrained from open anti-German propaganda activities.[42] At the same time, the OUN tried to infiltrate its own members into and create its own network within the German Auxiliary police.

A captured German document of November 25, 1941 (Nuremberg Trial O14-USSR) ordered: "It has been ascertained that the Bandera Movement is preparing a revolt in the Reichskommissariat which has as its ultimate aim the establishment of an independent Ukraine. All functionaries of the Bandera Movement must be arrested at once and, after thorough interrogation, are to be liquidated..."[43] By the end of November 1941, both the “Ukrainian Legions” Roland and Nachtigall were disbanded and the remaining soldiers (approximately 650 people) were given the option of signing a contract for military service after being transferred to Germany for further military training. At the same time (end of November 1941) the Germans started a second wave of repression in Reichskommissariat Ukraine specifically targeting OUN (B) members. Most of the captured OUN activists in Reichskommissariat Ukraine however, belonged to OUN (M) wing.

Most of the leadership died in 1941-42 in concentration camps. Not sure what support they would have outside of the areas west of the Dniepr, as their power base was in Galicia and East Ukrainians mostly saw themselves as Russian and the Ukrainian groups as traitors. Still, having them organize the West half of Ukraine, perhaps even allowing them their unsavory ethnic cleansing of Poles to cement the deal, they could avoid a fair bit of insurgency and have a strong anti-guerilla force to use in East Ukraine, as they suppress the people most likely to resist a Ukrainian independence movement.

 

[pattersonautobody]

What size would the mostly western Ukrainian army likely grow to? How would they arm them?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

What size would the mostly western Ukrainian army likely grow to? How would they arm them?

Its impossible to say. What support did they really have, how many weapons would the Germans trust them with, what would their combat utility be? I think they could really just be useful for LOC guarding and anti-partisan work like what the Ukrainian SS division did IOTL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_(1st_Galician)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrain...rainian_volunteers_in_the_German_armed_forces

Edit:
apparently the desperate Germans eventually did recognize the Ukrainian government, but ridiculously late:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_National_Committee

 

[machine3589]

This new government would also have to give Odessa and Galicia back to this Ukrainian state; IIRC this was a big issue for the Banderists.

 

[pattersonautobody]

Its impossible to say. What support did they really have, how many weapons would the Germans trust them with, what would their combat utility be? I think they could really just be useful for LOC guarding and anti-partisan work like what the Ukrainian SS division did IOTL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_(1st_Galician)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrain...rainian_volunteers_in_the_German_armed_forces

Edit:
apparently the desperate Germans eventually did recognize the Ukrainian government, but ridiculously late:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_National_Committee

Let's say they would sell them as many weapons as they wanted, but demanded the right to have transportation in their territory, build bases, and retain Sevestapol when it falls. Pretty much, Ukraine is treated like Bulgaria or Finland, but is not given anything that is the "latest and greatest." The Germans gamble that the new government would not surrender to the Russians for ideological reasons.