I wanted to build a timeline with as recent a POD as possible that achieved three objectives:
1) Roman Empire still exists in 1400 AD as a regional power at least, potential great power.
2) Roman Empire more integrated culturally and socially with Western Christendom without losing identity as an Orthodox state. "Renaissance" is a result of cultural interaction between Rome and Italian states rather than Italian states reaping the benefits of fleeing Roman scholars and texts.
3) Something left of the Crusader states in the Levant.
4) Did not have a major impact outside the Balkans/Anatolia/Levant until the 15th century, which precludes PODs like Heraclius living another ten years and kicking the Arabs in the teeth so hard they are never heard from again.
For there to be a major change culturally, there would have to be a major shock to the system, but no so bad as to be unrecoverable, like the sack of the City.
What I decided was "What if the 4th Crusade turned left at Albequerqe at the last minute."
The POD boils down to this: The 4th Crusade is camped outside the walls of Constantinople getting ready to attack again, and a disease sweeps through the camp, killing Enrique Dandolo and Boniface of Montferrat. In the confusion, the Papal letters excommunicating the Crusaders for attacking fellow Christians are published to the Army. At the same time, a monk arrives in camp, preaching that disease is God's punishment for attacking fellow Christians. The army immediately decamps, and heads for the nearest heathens available. Meanwhile Theodore Lascaris holds a coup which sweeps away the whole mess of Angeloi and establishes himself as Emperor. The Crusaders, followed by the Romans, actually head into Anatolia and straight for Iconium, where they topple the Seljuk sultans thereof, kicking over a pack of minor emirates along the way. The result is that the heartland of Anatolia returns to Roman control. I know it's pretty unlikely, but it's the only way I can figure out how to make this work out.
I'm presuming that cleaning up the Turks and confronting the Mongols absorbed a lot of energy, so Balkan history looks pretty similiar until after Stephan Dushan dies, with the exception that there is no Despotate of Epiros, of course. The Bulgarians and southern Serbians get conquered by the Empire on about the same timeline that they got conquered by the Ottomans, just because that saves me a lot of work in figuring out the course of various wars. There is no battle of Kosovo, but "Serbia" starts getting knocked off because after Stephan V dies and the Serbs dissolve into petty warring principalities, the Empire decides not to tolerate the chaos on their border. Prince Lazar's territory and the Kingdom of Bosnia are left alone -- and in fact, supported as buffer states. Just for kicks, I also wrote in the Empire taking advantage of the Sicilian Vespers revolt and Sicily returning to the Empire (Instead of Sicily, Aragons end up with Corsica and Sardinia earlier than in OTL).
I'm presuming that while Wallachia is definitely heavily influenced by the Empire, and Moldavia less so, the Empire has no desire to attempt to annex these areas nor to directly confront Hungary, it being a territory never part of the Empire and full of Catholics.
On the religious theme, I presume that without desperation driving it, the Uniate question never comes up. No incentive. Latin priests are permitted to erect churches in the Empire's major trading ports, but the appointment of bishops is not permitted. I'm wondering how Hungary would be likely to interact with an Empire which had no desire to conquer it at all. Then what butterflies would be kicked up to the north and east of Hungary?
John Kantakouzenos never claims the throne in his own right because he reacts more forcefully against his opponents in the capital. In July 1341, Alexios Apokaukos is killed resisting arrest after the failure of his coup, Anna of Savoy is kicked out of the city (earlier than historically happened), and the Patriarch John XIV is deposed in 1342. John Kantakouzenos is not playing. However, in 1354, he retires on schedule to a monastary in favor of John Palaiologos and takes up writing. Since in this TL, he is not associated with any Uniate efforts, and he doesn't fight a 7 year civil war, he is venerated as St. Ioasaph.
I also dropped a civil war in the late 1320s, using a 'Andronikos II retires to a monastary' gimmick.
The East looks totally different. Roman armies save the Kingdom of Jerusalem's holdings along the coast (though not Jerusalem itself) from the Mamlukes in 1265. In 1266 the Mamluke attack on the Principality of Antioch is stopped as well, but at the price of Antioch being returned to the Empire, and the County of Tripoli becoming a vassal state. The offering of the crown of the Great House of Armenia to Guy Lusignan just doesn't happen -- instead it is offered to John Kantakouzenos, who ends up negotiating a personal union between the Empire and the "Kingdom of Armenia". Cilician Armenia is ruled by a Despot, who is appointed by and takes orders from Constantinople.
I need to work out how interaction with Trebizond works out - remembering that the "Empire" was proclaimed BEFORE the capital was sacked, so it may have happened in this TL. I may decide that it didn't, and Trebizond is just another city, though a wealthy one with trade from the East coming in. The Kingdom of Georgia is getting torn up by Timur in 1400, and he's preparing to invade the Empire at this point. I'm also unsure how I should handle the Crimea.
The demographics are kind of sketchy, but I made some assumptions:
1) Foreign troops are settled, given land grants, and encouraged to marry local women and convert to Orthodoxy. It's a good gig for many, from the 4th Crusade and continuing. This is a more long-term method than hiring mercenaries. Even if the first generation does not become Orthodox, as long as the Empire holds the line against permitting Latin bishops to appointed for cities in the Empire, the next generation will.
2) A deliberate effort is made to convert, assimilate, and settle Turks. As well, incentives to include land ownership are offered to people willing to repopulate Anatolia. The choice is deliberate to encourage small-holders rather than granting vast estates to dyantoi.
There's some handwaving involved, but no matter how much handwaving I do, Anatolia is going to be pretty lightly populated except along the coastline, I think.
A native army is recreated, including western-style heavy cavalry, lamellar-armored lanchers in the traditional style, and horse archers, both armored dual-role medium horse and unarmored.light horse. Native heavy infantry corps is recreated, including a small professional element. Also, a fleet is recreated, and an artillery corps as well. Not sure how well this is going to do against Timur, but I'm having a hard time getting a clear picture of Timur's army, from a tactical and technical standpoint (anyone with useful info, please share!). I know it's big and it has elephants, That's not real useful information. What would really make my day would be someone with information on the logistical aspects of that army. It's big, mounted, and seems to move all over the place pretty fast. What the hell are they eating? What about fodder? Especially for elephants? They have cannon, how do they move them? I am assuming that in the Imperial Army during the late 14th century, there is a move away from shielded spearmen to pikemen, though with the better units (and thefront ranks of the middling grade units) retaining mail or lamellar armor. This begins in the western portions of the Empire, and is only slowly being introduced in the East, where fewer shock and more missle troops are the threat.
Osman was a Roman general. The Osmanoi are a Hellenized, Christianized land-owning aristocrat family in central Anatolia. Economic policy is much more sensible, no whoring out to the Italian city-states. Although there is an alliance with Genoa, Genoese merchants still pay taxes. Western fashions are popular in cities, and denounced at the pulpit. Michael VIII instituted a Roman order of knighthood in order to distinguish Roman soldiers and Westerners as well (also, becase I happen to think knights are cool). Roman icons are popular in Italy, while Roman aristocrats hang Italian (and Italian-style Roman) paintings in their houses. The Church is horrified by new artistic styles, and has so far kept them out of churches. The bronze horses are still at the Hippodrome, where jousts are routinely held. There is no Turkish state, and the Turks are themselves assimilating into the Empire in the same way the Cumans did.
Major question mark: Slavery. I can't really find much information on slave trade in Roman Empire post 13th century. I know the Italian city-states were heavily involved in trade from the Crimean peninsula into the Med. Not sure how this is going to play if the Roman Empire can do something about it -- because I'm fairly certain that if the Empire is confronting the Mamlukes, they are going to want to shut that down. For that matter, if the Empire is still a customer for slaves or not? I really can't find anything useful. Then, if the Empire does turn down the supply of slaves from the Steppe to Egypt, how does this impact the Mamlukes, and how quickly?
As a side note, I also assumed that an Empire which was stable and economically viable is going to stay away from the currency devaluation that happened historically. Which means the hyperpyron would be returned to a good standard of purity and kept full weight. How is this going to impact the monetary policy of the Italian states? Are they going to end up making the ducat or florin a 4.54 gram coin rather than the 3.5 gram?
Presuming that the Crusader states remain in existence, we have another issue, to wit the Templars. I'm presuming that the events leading up to their demise are not altered, but they are a critical element of the army of the Kingdom of Jerusalem.and Cyprus. I'm tentatively planning for their Middle Eastern priories to be absorbed into the Order of the Holy Sepulcher, which becomes very Templar-like. . .
OK, I know it could be considered Byzantine kinda-wank. I really don't care -- what I'm trying to figure out is how can I make it happen with a minimum of hand-waving, and what the impact would be if it DID happen. I've got a timeline worked out from 1204 to 1400, I'm going to refine it based on discussion of above points and then post it in all of its splendid pedantic detail.
1) Roman Empire still exists in 1400 AD as a regional power at least, potential great power.
2) Roman Empire more integrated culturally and socially with Western Christendom without losing identity as an Orthodox state. "Renaissance" is a result of cultural interaction between Rome and Italian states rather than Italian states reaping the benefits of fleeing Roman scholars and texts.
3) Something left of the Crusader states in the Levant.
4) Did not have a major impact outside the Balkans/Anatolia/Levant until the 15th century, which precludes PODs like Heraclius living another ten years and kicking the Arabs in the teeth so hard they are never heard from again.
For there to be a major change culturally, there would have to be a major shock to the system, but no so bad as to be unrecoverable, like the sack of the City.
What I decided was "What if the 4th Crusade turned left at Albequerqe at the last minute."
The POD boils down to this: The 4th Crusade is camped outside the walls of Constantinople getting ready to attack again, and a disease sweeps through the camp, killing Enrique Dandolo and Boniface of Montferrat. In the confusion, the Papal letters excommunicating the Crusaders for attacking fellow Christians are published to the Army. At the same time, a monk arrives in camp, preaching that disease is God's punishment for attacking fellow Christians. The army immediately decamps, and heads for the nearest heathens available. Meanwhile Theodore Lascaris holds a coup which sweeps away the whole mess of Angeloi and establishes himself as Emperor. The Crusaders, followed by the Romans, actually head into Anatolia and straight for Iconium, where they topple the Seljuk sultans thereof, kicking over a pack of minor emirates along the way. The result is that the heartland of Anatolia returns to Roman control. I know it's pretty unlikely, but it's the only way I can figure out how to make this work out.
I'm presuming that cleaning up the Turks and confronting the Mongols absorbed a lot of energy, so Balkan history looks pretty similiar until after Stephan Dushan dies, with the exception that there is no Despotate of Epiros, of course. The Bulgarians and southern Serbians get conquered by the Empire on about the same timeline that they got conquered by the Ottomans, just because that saves me a lot of work in figuring out the course of various wars. There is no battle of Kosovo, but "Serbia" starts getting knocked off because after Stephan V dies and the Serbs dissolve into petty warring principalities, the Empire decides not to tolerate the chaos on their border. Prince Lazar's territory and the Kingdom of Bosnia are left alone -- and in fact, supported as buffer states. Just for kicks, I also wrote in the Empire taking advantage of the Sicilian Vespers revolt and Sicily returning to the Empire (Instead of Sicily, Aragons end up with Corsica and Sardinia earlier than in OTL).
I'm presuming that while Wallachia is definitely heavily influenced by the Empire, and Moldavia less so, the Empire has no desire to attempt to annex these areas nor to directly confront Hungary, it being a territory never part of the Empire and full of Catholics.
On the religious theme, I presume that without desperation driving it, the Uniate question never comes up. No incentive. Latin priests are permitted to erect churches in the Empire's major trading ports, but the appointment of bishops is not permitted. I'm wondering how Hungary would be likely to interact with an Empire which had no desire to conquer it at all. Then what butterflies would be kicked up to the north and east of Hungary?
John Kantakouzenos never claims the throne in his own right because he reacts more forcefully against his opponents in the capital. In July 1341, Alexios Apokaukos is killed resisting arrest after the failure of his coup, Anna of Savoy is kicked out of the city (earlier than historically happened), and the Patriarch John XIV is deposed in 1342. John Kantakouzenos is not playing. However, in 1354, he retires on schedule to a monastary in favor of John Palaiologos and takes up writing. Since in this TL, he is not associated with any Uniate efforts, and he doesn't fight a 7 year civil war, he is venerated as St. Ioasaph.
I also dropped a civil war in the late 1320s, using a 'Andronikos II retires to a monastary' gimmick.
The East looks totally different. Roman armies save the Kingdom of Jerusalem's holdings along the coast (though not Jerusalem itself) from the Mamlukes in 1265. In 1266 the Mamluke attack on the Principality of Antioch is stopped as well, but at the price of Antioch being returned to the Empire, and the County of Tripoli becoming a vassal state. The offering of the crown of the Great House of Armenia to Guy Lusignan just doesn't happen -- instead it is offered to John Kantakouzenos, who ends up negotiating a personal union between the Empire and the "Kingdom of Armenia". Cilician Armenia is ruled by a Despot, who is appointed by and takes orders from Constantinople.
I need to work out how interaction with Trebizond works out - remembering that the "Empire" was proclaimed BEFORE the capital was sacked, so it may have happened in this TL. I may decide that it didn't, and Trebizond is just another city, though a wealthy one with trade from the East coming in. The Kingdom of Georgia is getting torn up by Timur in 1400, and he's preparing to invade the Empire at this point. I'm also unsure how I should handle the Crimea.
The demographics are kind of sketchy, but I made some assumptions:
1) Foreign troops are settled, given land grants, and encouraged to marry local women and convert to Orthodoxy. It's a good gig for many, from the 4th Crusade and continuing. This is a more long-term method than hiring mercenaries. Even if the first generation does not become Orthodox, as long as the Empire holds the line against permitting Latin bishops to appointed for cities in the Empire, the next generation will.
2) A deliberate effort is made to convert, assimilate, and settle Turks. As well, incentives to include land ownership are offered to people willing to repopulate Anatolia. The choice is deliberate to encourage small-holders rather than granting vast estates to dyantoi.
There's some handwaving involved, but no matter how much handwaving I do, Anatolia is going to be pretty lightly populated except along the coastline, I think.
A native army is recreated, including western-style heavy cavalry, lamellar-armored lanchers in the traditional style, and horse archers, both armored dual-role medium horse and unarmored.light horse. Native heavy infantry corps is recreated, including a small professional element. Also, a fleet is recreated, and an artillery corps as well. Not sure how well this is going to do against Timur, but I'm having a hard time getting a clear picture of Timur's army, from a tactical and technical standpoint (anyone with useful info, please share!). I know it's big and it has elephants, That's not real useful information. What would really make my day would be someone with information on the logistical aspects of that army. It's big, mounted, and seems to move all over the place pretty fast. What the hell are they eating? What about fodder? Especially for elephants? They have cannon, how do they move them? I am assuming that in the Imperial Army during the late 14th century, there is a move away from shielded spearmen to pikemen, though with the better units (and thefront ranks of the middling grade units) retaining mail or lamellar armor. This begins in the western portions of the Empire, and is only slowly being introduced in the East, where fewer shock and more missle troops are the threat.
Osman was a Roman general. The Osmanoi are a Hellenized, Christianized land-owning aristocrat family in central Anatolia. Economic policy is much more sensible, no whoring out to the Italian city-states. Although there is an alliance with Genoa, Genoese merchants still pay taxes. Western fashions are popular in cities, and denounced at the pulpit. Michael VIII instituted a Roman order of knighthood in order to distinguish Roman soldiers and Westerners as well (also, becase I happen to think knights are cool). Roman icons are popular in Italy, while Roman aristocrats hang Italian (and Italian-style Roman) paintings in their houses. The Church is horrified by new artistic styles, and has so far kept them out of churches. The bronze horses are still at the Hippodrome, where jousts are routinely held. There is no Turkish state, and the Turks are themselves assimilating into the Empire in the same way the Cumans did.
Major question mark: Slavery. I can't really find much information on slave trade in Roman Empire post 13th century. I know the Italian city-states were heavily involved in trade from the Crimean peninsula into the Med. Not sure how this is going to play if the Roman Empire can do something about it -- because I'm fairly certain that if the Empire is confronting the Mamlukes, they are going to want to shut that down. For that matter, if the Empire is still a customer for slaves or not? I really can't find anything useful. Then, if the Empire does turn down the supply of slaves from the Steppe to Egypt, how does this impact the Mamlukes, and how quickly?
As a side note, I also assumed that an Empire which was stable and economically viable is going to stay away from the currency devaluation that happened historically. Which means the hyperpyron would be returned to a good standard of purity and kept full weight. How is this going to impact the monetary policy of the Italian states? Are they going to end up making the ducat or florin a 4.54 gram coin rather than the 3.5 gram?
Presuming that the Crusader states remain in existence, we have another issue, to wit the Templars. I'm presuming that the events leading up to their demise are not altered, but they are a critical element of the army of the Kingdom of Jerusalem.and Cyprus. I'm tentatively planning for their Middle Eastern priories to be absorbed into the Order of the Holy Sepulcher, which becomes very Templar-like. . .
OK, I know it could be considered Byzantine kinda-wank. I really don't care -- what I'm trying to figure out is how can I make it happen with a minimum of hand-waving, and what the impact would be if it DID happen. I've got a timeline worked out from 1204 to 1400, I'm going to refine it based on discussion of above points and then post it in all of its splendid pedantic detail.
