in reality almost zero both are very far from each other. @Nivek and I gave our opinions. As a whole, it will depend on how Umar behaves. And what will the Abbasids give him? Umar will probably need money after the de civil war, so maybe he will ask for a sum of money, and in return, he accepts the Abbasids as caliphs
Maybe a few generations in the future. Or if their weird form of Islam long-term generates a strong reaction from the foreign emirs.
to the south the Fatimids to the north Asturia (and to a lesser degree France).
Both butterflies affect the others, if they recgonized the Abbasid, that means entering the diplomatic and courtly network, meaning abbasaids ideas would now influence the Andalus again, meaning more butterflies in religion and culture(especially as abbasadid did come the compilation of hadiths and the most extensive seed of the schools of jurisprudence) meaning more butterflies at work
Perhaps, the Umayyad of Iberia recognized the Abbasids as caliphs (at least until they declared themselves caliphs). This does not mean that the Abbasids had a lot of political influence on the Iberian peninsula. Not to mention that the Islam practiced by the Umayyads was much more orthodox than the Muladi Islam, which was anything but orthodox. Not to mention the unlikely rise of the Fatimids (which could make the Hafsun declare themselves Caliphs).
They likely adopted some things from the Abbasids, which is difficult to say. They can try to make a mini house of wisdom for example. In Otl, they adopted luxurious clothing, with gold-embroidered tunics, silk cloaks, and elaborate turbans. Beard and hairstyles and court customs and protocols. Maybe they will try to standardize Muladi Islam into something more unified and standardized across Iberia.
Yeah without a precise path, the butterflies would be everywhere, and even the ummayds did keep their own translation movements(and got even greek books and scholars from the ERE too), so is up what the Hafsun do. They could do the same with Latin Texts too
Yep, some things are easier to speculate such as the fate of most of the Arab elites. Others are harder such as how much autonomy the governors/regions will have. In OTL his rebellion introduced a governance system that resembled feudal structures, granting lands and privileges to local leaders and warriors who supported his cause. He allowed the building and repair of churches. This contrasted sharply with the Umayyad policies. Also, his jizya was not the soul-sucking tax that the Umayyad jizya was. So Mozarabics would be a strong core of supporters and have a lot of influence. But how much influence and for how long?
probably, as a whole this depends on the post-uprising. A war with Asturia is also very likely. But how it will happen is difficult to say.
Yeah but i think war with austrias and navarre will come next, to recover lost land and getting the gears ready for legitimacy
Yes, the campaign against Asturia is something that will happen. As well as a campaign against Navarre. But the composition of the army, the amount of territorial advance, international reaction, etc. depend on a wide variety of things.
