WI: Napoleon III dies between 1860-1861

[Aluma]

It still astonishes me that there was a second French Empire with yet another Napoleon after yet another overthrown Republic
Curiously enough he was very sick, from urogenital to fiber dysplasia, dying in 1873
So it makes me wonder...
Napoleon III's foreign policy would only become known as a disaster after the estabilishment of the second Mexican Empire(because yes we needed a second one there too) attracting the ire of the United States and the breakdown of relations between Prussia and France, resulting in the franco-prussian war and the unification of Germany on top of the french humiliation and dissolution of its Empire

So what if none of that happened?
What if Nappy 3 died before any of this shit could blow up in his face?

That way would ensure his rule would only include his successes in the Crimean War, his aid to Italy and reestabilishment of the french colonial empire as well as his domestic policy pursuing the modernization of France

It was very possible, according to the wiki
"By his late forties, Napoleon started to suffer from numerous medical ailments, including kidney disease, bladder stones, chronic bladder and prostate infections, arthritis, gout, obesity, and the chronic effects of smoking. In 1856, Dr. Robert Ferguson, a consultant called from London, diagnosed a "nervous exhaustion"

Would that be enough to save his legacy? And what would be the immediate butterflies created by his death?

 

[Viking25]

It still astonishes me that there was a second French Empire with yet another Napoleon after yet another overthrown Republic
Curiously enough he was very sick, from urogenital to fiber dysplasia, dying in 1873
So it makes me wonder...
Napoleon III's foreign policy would only become known as a disaster after the estabilishment of the second Mexican Empire(because yes we needed a second one there too) attracting the ire of the United States and the breakdown of relations between Prussia and France, resulting in the franco-prussian war and the unification of Germany on top of the french humiliation and dissolution of its Empire

So what if none of that happened?
What if Nappy 3 died before any of this shit could blow up in his face?

That way would ensure his rule would only include his successes in the Crimean War, his aid to Italy and reestabilishment of the french colonial empire as well as his domestic policy pursuing the modernization of France

It was very possible, according to the wiki
"By his late forties, Napoleon started to suffer from numerous medical ailments, including kidney disease, bladder stones, chronic bladder and prostate infections, arthritis, gout, obesity, and the chronic effects of smoking. In 1856, Dr. Robert Ferguson, a consultant called from London, diagnosed a "nervous exhaustion"

Would that be enough to save his legacy? And what would be the immediate butterflies created by his death?

Not sure about much but I assume France probably does somewhat worse in the Franco Prussian War considering they now have either a Child or a 70 year old man whose only notable accomplishments were getting his ass wooped every time he ever tried to fight in a war as the Emperor depending on the date along with the division's in its political system and organisational problems in its army still remaining.

 

[Rooseveltian Whovian]

Who would govern in the young child's name? a collective Regency Council, or a single Regent?

 

[Whanztastic]

Who would govern in the young child's name? a collective Regency Council, or a single Regent?

Charles de Morny, the Emperor’s half-brother; Jerome Bonaparte, his cousin; and Empress Eugenie are certainly going to be involved.

Eugenie had served as Regent when Napoleon III had taken foreign trips previously but this is obviously different.
It would likely be a council but the timing is really important as Napoleon III was going through government changes 1860 to 1863. The ministers and military might want a more direct say in a regency as well.

The biggest wrinkle is that Morny, arguably the Emperor’s closet confident and political ally, was also sickly and predeceased him IOTL. Any regency council built around Morny would be upset very soon after.

 

[Wendell]

Charles de Morny, the Emperor’s half-brother; Jerome Bonaparte, his cousin; and Empress Eugenie are certainly going to be involved.

Eugenie had served as Regent when Napoleon III had taken foreign trips previously but this is obviously different.
It would likely be a council but the timing is really important as Napoleon III was going through government changes 1860 to 1863. The ministers and military might want a more direct say in a regency as well.

The biggest wrinkle is that Morny, arguably the Emperor’s closet confident and political ally, was also sickly and predeceased him IOTL. Any regency council built around Morny would be upset very soon after.

This might allow for a nice evolution towards a constitutional monarchy. As far as a regent goes, I would expect Alexandre Colonna Walewski to be involved.

 

[UCB79]

Not sure about much but I assume France probably does somewhat worse in the Franco Prussian War considering they now have either a Child or a 70 year old man whose only notable accomplishments were getting his ass wooped every time he ever tried to fight in a war as the Emperor depending on the date along with the division's in its political system and organisational problems in its army still remaining.

But maybe with no Napoleon III there is no Franco-Prussian War?(though admittedly Bismarck would have, regardless of the situation, moved heaven & earth to, just as IOTL, provoke a war with France to
bring about German unification).

 

[Viking25]

But maybe with no Napoleon III there is no Franco-Prussian War?(though admittedly Bismarck would have, regardless of the situation, moved heaven & earth to, just as IOTL, provoke a war with France to
bring about German unification).

I mean Napoleon III was very reluctant to do so OTL and only did so after bowing to public pressure so I think France is actually more likely to go to war if anything.

 

[UCB79]

I mean Napoleon III was very reluctant to do so OTL and only did so after bowing to public pressure so I think France is actually more likely to go to war if anything.

Maybe Viking. I was just thinking if Nappy is not on the scene in 1870 maybe France would be governed by someone more capable who’d see the trap Bismarck was laying & avoid it(if you’re getting the impress-
ion here that I don’t think too well of Napoleon III you’re right- I don’t).

 

[Aluma]

It wasnt just public pressure, he was obliged to by the government as well, everyone except him wanted that war because the french were too overconfident
I still think it might butterfly away the war though
I dont think Nappy 3 was bad, but without his intervention in Mexico we would have a France much better positioned diplomatically-wise with less manpower wasted and more economically sound
Without him perhaps there would be a better military command to lead the war, even if there wasnt France is unlikely to look like the aggressor without his interventionism
That and the fact Prussia had their own foreign interventionism that Bismarck wanted to tone down but the Kaiser wanted to increase(african colonies, navy building, competition with Britain, that one telegram...) might give France just enough support to beat Prussia in the war(even if it is a phyrric victory)

 

[Whanztastic]

Wait, his cousin who is in Maryland, or his cousin’s 30-yo son serving in the French army? I’d assume you mean the latter. (And at least it’s not the emperor’s uncle, who’s probably dead by this point.)

Unfortunately, due to the confusing naming conventions of their family, he is best known as Plon-Plon, but I meant NAPOLEON JOSEPH CHARLES PAUL BONAPARTE, PRINCE NAPOLEON. I didn’t want to use that nickname since it stems from a mocking childhood nickname and propaganda of the time, but it is confusing.

He would be heir presumptive to young Napoleon IV and represented the more liberal wing of Bonapartism. Although never very well liked, he was an active player in the Second Empire up to 1865 when he publicly came out against the Mexican Intervention.

To balance with more conservative forces, I suspect Eugène Rouher would be part of the regency, likely as an ally of the Empress.

Again, the timing of all this is critical. It could stop the Mexican intervention or forces could pull out if France is not yet too committed. The whole Concert of Europe was up in the air at the time, and Napoleon III’s personal ambition was honestly a major reason why other powers didn’t trust France during multi-party diplomacy regarding the Polish uprising, Schleswig-Holstein, and the other hot button topics of the day.

Re-reading about the Franco-Prussian War, Eugenie was an active and interventionist Regent in Paris while Nap III was ill and out at the front. I have no doubt she’d attempt to be the leader of any council and her own convictions would suddenly be front and center in any period until Napoleon IV comes of age (or a different government replaces it…)

 

[Whanztastic]

This might allow for a nice evolution towards a constitutional monarchy. As far as a regent goes, I would expect Alexandre Colonna Walewski to be involved.

Certainly, but he would also die before Napoleon IV is 16 or 18 (not sure what “of age” would be considered). Given the turnover, I don’t see it being an easy regency.

 

[kholieken]

I mean Napoleon III was very reluctant to do so OTL and only did so after bowing to public pressure so I think France is actually more likely to go to war if anything.

More aggressive french leadership could interfere in Scleswig War and Austro-Prussian War and prevent raise of Germany ?

 

[funnyhat]

It still astonishes me that there was a second French Empire with yet another Napoleon after yet another overthrown Republic

Consider that his uncle was popular to begin with, and his legend only grew following his exile and death. Louis-Napoléon won the presidency with 74 % of the vote, in one round of voting, mostly on the strength of his name. As late as 1870 IOTL, the voters ratified his referendum by a massive margin. The war with Prussia changed everything.

Bonapartism seemed, to a lot of people at the time, to be a good middle ground between monarchism and republicanism. But the fact that he didn't have a son until 1856 would be problematic in any case. If he dies around 1860, there will either be a very long regency (which might not survive) or a succession crisis.

 

[Wendell]

Certainly, but he would also die before Napoleon IV is 16 or 18 (not sure what “of age” would be considered). Given the turnover, I don’t see it being an easy regency.

Perhaps not, especially with Leon and all of the crazy cousins about. Still, I think it's doable, but the butterflies could be massive and even potentially include for however long Hohenzollern Spain.

 

[Janprimus]

But maybe with no Napoleon III there is no Franco-Prussian War?(though admittedly Bismarck would have, regardless of the situation, moved heaven & earth to, just as IOTL, provoke a war with France to
bring about German unification).

Regarding Bismarck, once the movement of German Unification becomes strong enough, he will want to steer it in the direction, which will benefit Prussia the most. In a way Bismarck was a late convert and not someone, which had supported this cause from the beginning.
Still a lot depends on the position of France during the process of German Unification.