Not if you use Soviet trade as explanation. After all Germans are trading with you in increasing ammounts and as you said it’s years in advance - is Hitler gonna start the war in 33 or 36?
I don't think the Soviet are that dumb, they can still trade without this*, plus it would require reproachment way earlier than the MR pact and for Stalin not to be paranoid
*and often did so by throttling back on shipment speed!
Again they're not dumb they know this locks them in because nothing comes for free and Hitels be giving speeches since the 20's. Now it might well still be tempting for teh trade off, but the USSR are still going to see. And Romania well knows it has to keep the USSR sweet as well. and the soviett do see the Black sea as their pondGermany and Italy were Romanias biggest trading partner. Don’t need to lock it in as an ally before the 40s but no country at such a time of crisis will say no to investments like that.
Also if you doing both at the same time it all just gets more obvious to the Soviets!
I get the idea, and in logistical terms it makes sense but it kind of ignores that other countries have eyes and their own desires